ISOLATION SCORING, Statistical analysis of LIN vs HARDEN and the top 50 scorers ISO rankings

Thanks for the stats. Great work.

So from the info. Right now our best ISO player is

1) Lin - same ppp as Harden but much better efficiency

2) Harden - good but takes too many shots at 38% FG

3) Parsons - terrible at ISO. Cant create his own shot and shouldnt attempt to.

4) Dwight - doesnt get a mention? Is it because he thrns it over 1 in 4 times when given the ball in the post?

From the statistics, the coaches are definitely not playing the players correctly and definitely not even close to maximising their potential. Imagine what our team could be! Morey should get on the coaches case and get them to run the team more efficiently or send them packing!!!

 

Two things with isos...get ball and player movement before the iso. Also exploit the match-up. Today I expect Harden to get a majority of the isos on Mclemore, going to Dwight early to trying and get Cousins out of the game.

Lin is important when we go to the second unit where he has space to create. As the ball handler or the pnr he is really good at getting to the basket even though at times he gets caught in the air and turns it over.

 

It is extremely difficult to double a penetrating guard who can assist. Look at Cris Paul's tape. You can however attempt to cut him off and redirect him.

 

CP3 and Lin are two different animals. No comparison. Also Lin has been spending alot of time as a 2 guard and not a point guard.

 

Plus Hardens shots are probably as contested as anyone in the league. Teams are sending a double as soon as he gets it. He has incredible efficenciy for a guy who generates and has his shots contested so many..

 

I don't think this is necessarily true, if you look at the Spurs for example, no one on the team is really known as an ISO guy and yet they have won 4 rings. Maybe in the past when hand-checking was allowed you really needed ISO guys so people like Starbury, Steve Francis and of course Allen Iverson were necessary, but now in the modern NBA where the D has been shackled you really just need movement, discipline and of course, great D of your own to win games.

 

That's a myth created here. Both Harden and Lin can and have played great together. Lin makes Harden's life easier and Harden plays more efficiently with Lin on the court. Or at least there are times when they play off each other and have.

 

If you look at the Spurs championship years _ see Manu... See Miami with LeBron and Wade. Kobe and Paul Pierce. Also big men who can isolate like Duncan, Dirk, KG, Shaq, and Sheed Wallace. Come playoff time when the game slows down (because teams have the same amount of time to rest and prepare unlike in the regular season) you need at least one or two guys who you can just give the ball to and tell to go get you two... That's one constant that has always remained the same in the NBA.

 

One guy has 31 iso plays and one guy has 117, but somehow lin is a better isolation player than harden? Anyone want to consider sample size?

The statistics say that the PPP of harden is closer to his true PPP than Lin since we have a much larger sample.

Also ISO ball is ugly especially harden isoing at the end of the game.

 

end of games and quarters for Harden. I don't think Lin is a good ISO player, he doesn't have that mentality. He'll look to score sometimes if he's hot in ISOs but he's not looking to show up guys so much where others get off on the one-on-one to one-on-five challenge. Even LeBron isn't really into ISO ball, he's looking for a best shot but he doesn' thave to take it and if he goes one-on-three I think he think he's playing bad basketball.

 

Contrary to what you believe, Spurs and Heat isolates a lot less.
Heat 8.5%
Spurs 5.2%
Rockets 10.1%

Isolation, in general, is not a good offensive play. Only under special circumstances that isolations make sense. The more different players get to handle the ball, the better the team’s defense is…

Huh?

When you iso a lot you don’t have that shared responsibility on defense. It’s kind of human nature – if you work hard to get a guy a layup, he’ll want to return the favor and play harder on defense. Even if he misses the shot after receiving a good pass from his teammate, he will work even HARDER on D to make up his wide open missed shot.

There is less standing around, players will feel a part of the team, they feel the movement, they feel good. If one guy is shooting all the shots, defensively other players will not try as hard.

Another reason why isolation plays may have fallen out of favor around the league is because the defenses and scouting have improved, defenders are so familiar with other players that they try to beat their man to the spot when iso'ing (forcing Harden to his right).

Harden is no MJ and has go-to shot which he can rely upon for consistent scoring. Igoudala watched so much of Harden's film, he knew how to defend him to a tee.

 

It's great to have two really good ISO players on the team. It makes sense why one should play with the starting unit and one with the second unit since they are both at their best with ISOs. I'd be interested in seeing how they compare against other players around the league.

 

Hey dude... Please point out in my post where I said anything on HOW MUCH a team should run isolation plays... Fact remains they still have players who can do it and they utilize it. Also I didn't even mention Harden in the post you responded to. So you just wasted your thumb (typing) energy.

 

Harden is a great ISO player, no doubt. But I think the reason a lot of us get frustrated with his isos because of when he chooses to ISO and the type of shots he takes in his ISO. Last 2 minutes of games and taking forced and contested 3 pointers, most time trying to draw the foul instead of trying to make the shot, is pretty frustrating to watch. Especially when you see how easy it is for him to get to the rim.

 

The real question is could Lin, with a 70% higher usage rate, be as productive? Probably not.

 

The player and stat that jumped out at me is Lamarcus Aldridge. I am guessing this suggests you should never leave him, since he won't create off you, but he will pull up and hit the open J?

 

Response

The problem is Lin probably plays very few minutes without Harden on the court at the same time. Does anyone have stats on the average minutes Lin plays without Harden? I do agree that with Harden on the court, you can put any other PG, and it would not make too much difference.

 

Probably not for 25 games. For isolated games where his usage is forced higher by Harden being out, he probably could.