Some really good discussion here. I'll add in a further two cents worth, and try to keep it short. On Paul Millsap, I think many people under-rate him because - He was a 2nd round 47th pick, without a flashy game like say Gilbert Arenas - He's 6'8 and undersized - He doesn't average 20/10 per game for a PF (but if you adjust his stats to per 36min basis and for sharing time with Al Jefferson and Carlos Boozer who are both good rebounders and insider scorers in his career, you can easily argue he would. And even with them, he was pretty much there anyway). On wanting a superstar and not a potential quasi-star like Millsap - After missing out for many years on trading for or signing a superstar free agent, and after ONE fortuitous James Harden trade when we were armed with two 1st round picks (one almost guaranteed lottery pick), a #12 pick in Jeremy Lamb, and a large expiring in Kevin Martin who is actually still a big plus on the court), we're now fooled into thinking getting a superstar has a high probability of happening. Via trade or free-agency. - You just can't plan for 'Kevin Love or bust' or 'LMA or bust' On Rockets doing sign-and-trades instead of going via free agency - Sign-and-trades only really work for disgruntled superstars, and they basically have to name you as a destination - Rockets don't have great assets for sign-and-trades (or trades) for a superstar or established star, after the Harden trade - Of the players not in the Rocket's plans or without much upside, Douglas/Cook/Aldrich all expire this year, and Delfino has a team option. All the other players have higher output/potential than contract. So sign-and-trades (and trades), unless you're giving up your most promising rookies/2nd yr players or Lin/Asik, doesn't really you much more cap room for 2013/14. - Only Royce has a contract that should be dumped, but that's more due to off-court issues, and no team will go near his contract unless they have to. Replying to Durvasa: - I too would like to see Carl Landry back! One of my favorite Rockets players during the Yao/T-Mac era. - This year, Landry's finally putting everything together - He was a rebounding moster his first two years, then it dropped off as his scoring picked up in his 3rd/4th year in Houston/Sacramento, and in his 5th/6th years in Sacramento and New Orleans, his FG% dropped off to around 50% and his rebounding remained anemic. - This year, however, he's back to shooting 60% (similar to his first two years with the Rockets), and averaging 20pts, 9.3rebs and 6.6FTAs per 36min. - He's finally putting everything together, at the AGE OF 29, after 6 full years in the league, but he was a bit of a late starter. - He can be had cheaper than Millsap, but he lacks a 3pt shot and isn't as good a passer or defender. I think that, as patient as we want Morey to be when waiting for the right star to be available, I don't think you pass on a Millsap if he could be had for up to $12M/yr. And the rookies/2nd year PFs won't be in their prime until their second contract, and Lin/Asik/Parsons if still around will need to get paid as well. And note if a superstar wants a trade to the Rockets, two players out of Millsap, Lin, Parsons and Asik + a couple of the rookies and/or draft picks would be a decent package. And as PFs don't really hit their prime until perhaps the middle of their second contract, we would be wise to sell off our crop of PFs in their 3rd or 4th years to teams that want to pay them their contract, in exchange for veteran role players or draft picks, to maintain a crop of low contract capable players to surround our core. That's my thinking. Millsap may not take us to contender status immediately, but Lin, Harden, Parsons, Millsap and Asik with development, in a year or two, with the right role players that we know Morey can get, could give Detroit's back-to-back championship team a run for its money. It is somewhat similar in make-up also. Or it could be a solid asset base for trades to upgrade.
Millsap is my first choice, too, as long as Love and Aldridge stay put. Excellent analysis. We need more threads like this.
Great post again! And great thread! This is a great article on Carl Landry IMO, that reveals him to be a better defender than one might think through advanced stats. Yes, it is Bleacher Report, but it uses a ton of advanced stats to back it up: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...warriors-why-carl-landry-is-an-absolute-steal I do agree that Landry is not much of a stretch 4 and may be a little older than ideal at 29. I've been hoping one of our young 4's can make the "Landry Leap" and develop into a go-to post player. I think Morris and D-Mo might be on their way, but it's too early to tell. I am not totally against Millsap, but I do see something in some of these young PF's. I'd hate to see us gut the team again for somebody when we might have some players that can fill that role if given a little more time.
Can someone elaborate on his game? Can he create his own shot? Does he have a real good post game? Should you run plays for him or is he more a hustle guy that hits on put backs and open shots? I am sure Morey will take a long hard look at him - if for nothing else to collect another asset. But I wouldn't sleep on Josh Smith either. What people tend to forget he is still very young, 26 I think. If you can fix his attitude and poor shot selection your are looking at a true superstar here - but it's a risk and a little gamble.
Sorry. Millsap is not a STAR. LBJ is a STAR. KD is a STAR. Harden is a budding STAR. STARS can put a team on their back and drain 35 while subjected to double teams. STARS can grab the attention of the whole NBA nation on any particular night. Millsap is a very good starting PF in the NBA.
You might watch the tape of RGV's games this year. Or at least the highlights. There is a PF there who is garnering a lot of attention. And he is cheap too!
I´m neither saying we should sign Millsap nor am I saying we should be signing Smith - I am excited about DMO as well, hope coaching can make him hustle on every play (right now he is taking lots of time off), make his offense more consistent and improve his technique and anticipation on defense. He seems to have all the tools. But he is still a long way from even being a quality role player. But Morey probably will want to get a marquee FA next season and DMO won`t peak this season or next. Smith or Millsap could be the target and both have several reasons to get them or not to get them. I don`t know Millsap enough, that`s why I asked if someone could elaborate on his game.
For me, the guy I would really hate to lose would be DMo. He has star potential. Dirk/Gasol on the high side (we can hope), and Bagnani on offense is realistic upside (but better on rebounding and defense). Terrence Jones has do-it-all great role player potential. Someone a contending team can really use. Upside is Lamar Odom type. 2Pat would probably be the first I'd trade. But he's not bad, really. If he could rebound a bit better and play a little bigger, eventually he'll carve a role in the NBA not unlike Udonis Haslem, and be better than him. And I think Marcus Morris is the real deal, in where today's NBA game is going. A SF/PF that can really stretch the defense on 3s, can beat up the smaller defenders in the post, rebound and defend well, and create his own shots off the dribble and for the mid-range pull-up jumper. Morris also did a good job defensively on Kobe, LBJ and the 4s he's played so far, I think he's a keeper. To be honest, I'd pull the trigger today trading 2Pat to Atlanta just to get our lottery-protected 1st round pick back. More than fair trade for Atlanta, with their need for insurance in case Josh Smith leaves. Gives time for Morris, T Jones and DMo to play. The quicker we fast-track their development, the better we'd be next year assuming we can get a guy like Millsap.
milsap can rebound and hit the midrange, and has a some post up game too. waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than patrick patterson.
Because I think trades to improve the team are just as likely as free agent signings, I think Morey should go after Horford. Al Horford 26 yrs Per 36 min. - Ts%573 eFG%538 / 14ppg 10reb -(16 ppg this season) He's 26, 6'10", good on both sides of the ball, currently under contract for 4 seasons at $12 mil per, and he'll be hard to pry away, but Atlanta could be rebuilding next year so who knows what they'll do. Horford is a slightly younger, slightly better PF than Josh Smith or Paul Millsap. (Josh Smith) will be 27 in Dec. Per 36 min. - Ts%517 eFG%478 / 16ppg 8.4reb (Paul Millsap) will be 28 in Feb. Per 36 min. - Ts%565 eFG%522 / 16ppg 9.4reb
Paul Milsap is under size... And although Josh Smith brings shot blocking to the table, he doesn't have a low post game. Offensively there is not much difference between these guys and the PFs the Rockets already have. Just because the Rockets have money to spend doesn't mean they should just run out and spend it. Sometimes the best move is not to make a move. D-Mo has looked good so far in the D League (Scott Machado as well)... Morey wasn't at the game the overnight against NYC _ he was in the valley watching the Vipers. I think D-Mo and possibly Machado will both be called up soon...
Horford isnt going anywhere. The Hawks and Danny Ferry value him way to much.Morey wont just sign anyone for the sake of it. Thats not he operates and wont throw money away. Unless he can get a guy like Aldridge or someone of his ilk he'll keep the capspace open for the free agency the year after and just look for a few trades here and there to improve the team.
One point the OP was trying to make and appeared to make pretty well was that Morey wants a stretch PF. Looking at Horford's shot locations, he doesn't seem to be that effective with his outside shot: http://www.hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Al Horford
I think Al Horford is realistically unobtainable. If you want to give them Harden + assets, they might consider it. But that's not going to happen, so..
I agree re Josh Smith, but it's a big 'if'. I would've taken that gamble several years ago, when it seemed like he's figuring it out. Since then, he's regressed in terms of his shot selection. Right now, I'd take Millsap. re Millsap, he's small-ish, so he has to pick his spots with post ups. He has the skills. But his low post game won't be your go-to option in every game. He can take people off the dribble, he can post up. Pick and roll / pop. Spot ups. Hussle points. Cuts and athletic plays. He's just versatile. Defensively too. And he's smart enough to know which tool to use vs. which opponent.
Yes! I love Jeff Adrien! Honestly, though. Guy's a beast. Hope the Rockets find a roster spot for him.
PROS: - Good high-low player who can fake and finish from the high post. - Much of his offense comes from garbage points and putbacks, which makes a player like that highly effective on a team that plays at a higher pace. The Rockets are second in the NBA in pace of play. - Fairly "complete" as a player who presents no net negatives defensively or offensively, although shooting leaves much to be desired (see below). CONS: - Neither tall nor athletic at the PF position, although arm length allows some compensation. - Shooting form has a very artificial and clumsy look to it, making him an unreliable shooter at range. Cannot shoot three pointers with any degree of fluency and therefore does not attempt many. Attempted just 31 3's last season and 23 the season before. - Has attempted to expand range this season but results still unconvincing. Will obviously not break all NBA shooting records for three point percentage and maintain stupidly high 53% 3p shooting clip. Shooting form will prove an insurmountable barrier as numbers drop and drop.
I don't care about any of these things you say. Because none of these things matter. But Millsap has some huge strikes against him. The biggest of which is that he has no upside. He's been the same player for years now, despite varying raw numbers due to usage and playing time. Also, his lack of height will always be detrimental on defense, given that he's not an athletic freak. Third, he has that Luis Scola aura about him. His team is pretty good and he plays well. But you don't see franchise-altering play. And he's been in the league long enough to see a trend. And bringing in Paul Millsap basically removes any possibility of accumulating enough talent for a true big move. If Morris, Jones, and/or DMo gets enough playing time, 1-2 years from now we might have enough for another tax-laden team to dump a star on us. But if we get Millsap and play him 35mpg, all our PFs become pretty crappy trade chips. In other words, you'd be trading 2-3 1st round picks for Millsap, as his blocking the development of our young PFs basically render these picks worthless. You're right. You can't plan for Kevin Love or bust. But with higher tax restrictions and many teams with stupid GMs, you can plan that some team will get into a conundrum in regards to a really good player. And when that occurs, would that team want a youngster putting up 12/8 in 20mpg? Or one that only sees garbage time? Trade bait needs to be developed, like Lowry, Landry, Brooks, etc.
I'd say critiques about lack of upside are pretty spot-on, particularly on a team of young players still finding their ceilings. Paul Millsap is by no means a bad player, but this is the most Millsap that Millsap will ever Millsap. It gets no more Millsapey than this.
