I'll defer to people with more knowledge of the cap situation than myself. The way I understand it, at a very basic level, is the extra cap room isn't expected to be life-changing. So I compare that $18-19M that Dragic could potentially make vs. Kyle Lowry money ($12M - what I think he's actually worth). That's what I'm basing my apprehension on. But, again, not a capologist.
What I find funny, is that if you told someone last season that the Rockets could have Goran Dragic James Harden Dwight Howard Josh Smith Trevor Ariza all on the same team they would not hesitate to say break the bank and screw the salary cap, NBA championship here we come!
There are other factors but basically a max salary for a 7 - 9 year vet is worth 30% of the cap. If the cap is 80,000,000 then a max player with 7 - 9 years in the league would be worth about 24 mil~.
Yeah part of the equation here isn't just the salary dragic would require from us to retain him, but the fact that we wouldn't be saving cap space for anyone anymore. We'd have our three players to lock in.
I'll just add, who else can we get at a position of need as good as Goran? There is no one available that is as good as Goran at a position of need for us anywhere in the league. We will very likely never have the salary cap space going forward to grab a player of that caliber in free agency so you better grab them when you can.
So, here's the real thing. If the 2015-16 cap goes up to the projected $66.5 million, then the max contract that Goran can be offered by any other team other than the one that he last played for is somewhere in the neighborhood of 4/80. Because the NBAPA rejected "smoothing" yesterday, there's going to be a gargantuan rise in the cap for 2016-17. Most are projecting it goes to at least $80 million and some are saying it could go as high as $85 million or higher. Let's just take that $80 million figure. So.......IF Goran decided to take his player option for next season and play at that $7.5 million salary....he would then be eligible for a much greater max deal after next season. This is basically what Lebron and KLove are doing, making sure they sign their max deals after the gargantuan cap increase and corresponding max salary increases. Based on the same percentages of max contract (this could vary slightly) then Goran would be eligible for a max contract starting at $22.447 million in 2016-17. So, he could receive an offer from another team besides his last team of 4/96. This combined with playing out his option at $7.5 million would equal 5/103.5 million. By the way, if Goran went this route...he would be playing the next 4 season for close to the same money he will make if he signs a max deal this summer, 4/77.8 to be exact. But....he'd have an extra season $25+ million left to be paid for one extra season over signing a 4-year deal this summer. However...whatever team he last played for could also offer him a 5-year max with 7.5% raises. If Goran is offered a 5-year max deal with max raises from his last team this summer and the cap is at $66.5 million...that would be approximately 5/107 based on the same percentage as currently used for a 7-year vet. Or....Goran could play out his player option at $7.5 million and then sign a 4-year max with 7.5% raises next season. If he did that based on the cap going to $80 million that deal would be somewhere around 4/100. That would equate to 5/107.5. THAT IS THE SAME MONEY AS SIGNING FOR A 5-YEAR MAX THIS SUMMER AND MORE MONEY THAN SIGNING A 4-YEAR MAX FROM ANOTHER TEAM. And we're not even talking about Goran playing out his option and then signing a 5-year max deal with 7.5% raises in 2016. ============================================= The reason why this is important to the Rockets is the cap flexibility it could give us in 2016 IF GORAN TOOK HIS PLAYER OPTION AND PLAYED FOR $7.5 MILLION IN 2015-16. Goran's cap hold would be a measly $11.25 million in 2016 so it would be easy to go after Durant or another max free agent in 2016 while still keeping Goran on with a cap hold and then re-signing him then and giving him his money. Now...........if you want to poo poo this ......... like many of you have done before ......... then stop and think .... what are Lebron and Love doing????? But....Goran isn't at Lebron's level, he hasn't gotten his big contract yet? Yes, somewhat legitimate. But he's a POINT GUARD. He might not even receive an offer on the free agent market exceeding 4/60. Who knows. Guys.....this is also why JIMMY BUTLER is on my signature list as a trade target and I KNOW that the Rockets would throw everything but Harden and Howard in to obtain Butler. Butler has already gambled once. He didn't sign his extension. CHICAGO IS CROSSING THEIR FINGERS AND HOPING HE SIGNS THEIR MAX OFFER THIS SUMMER because they don't want to have to worry about maxing him out next summer. If Butler is smart he will get all this on the table with Chicago now. If he's not he could cost himself quite a bit of money over the next 5 years. And Butler's case is even better than Goran's. He could play out one-year offer and that would give the Rox a lot of salary cap flexibility both this summer and next summer as well since his cap hold would only be around $5 million. The NBAPA voting down "smoothing" yesterday is a huge deal for trades right now and free agency this summer.
Yes he is. When you are over the cap the difference between 15 and 20 million only matters if you are Les Alexander and don't want to pay luxury tax. Dragic is worth filling up our cap.
basketballholic, While I don't agree with all of your posts on trades, you do have a very good understanding of the cap rules. There is merit for Goran playing out is option IF he comes to Houston because that would benefit him by having a possible better team and getting him more money in a max deal. Goran, Harden, KD, ?, Dwight would be too much to hope for. But if it did happen...damn.
Why would Dragic opt into a $7.5M contract when he can just opt out and sign a 1 year contract worth at least twice that much, and then enter free agency again in 2016 with the rising cap?
In a vacuum no, he isn't. But if he is the difference between the Rockets being a borderline contender, to a favorite, then he is.
Of course nobody cares about Les's Money. It's a silly argument to make. People care about the salary cap, and the luxury tax, and the apron, and getting hard capped. If we signed Dragic to an 18-19 million deal, we'll be learning all about the hard cap next year.
