Another thread got me thinking: When Coach K retires, will Duke ever be able to sustain the same level of success? I know that's kind of an unfair question since Coach K is one of the greatest college coaches ever.. but I just mean, they don't strike me as a powerhouse school that kids will always want to attend no matter whose coaching. After Coach K retires, I think they're in for a hard reality check. Thoughts?
Look what happened to Indiana after Bobby Knight was given the boot. They went from a perennial powerhouse to a middle-of-the-pack Big 10 team. I don't think Duke will plunge that far, as they'll probably replace K from within -- Wojo and Chris Collins have been loyal assistants for over a decade. I'm just wondering which one gets the nod...
Being a Duke fan, I definitely think it will affect the program when he retires. Players go there specifically to be coached by him and without him there it will most likely make some players go elsewhere. However, I think Duke has made itself into such a big name that top recruits will still want to play there.
UNC was lucky to go from Dean Smith to Bill Guthridge, but we hit a rough spot with Matt Doherty. Thankfully, they were still able to pull in A-list recruits during this time which helped keep the program afloat. It'll be interesting to see what happens when Coach K goes.. as a Carolina fan, I'd hope they'd be able to keep their current success (somewhat) so that our rivalries remain meaningful.
I wonder if they'll maintain the same recruiting tactics once Coach K retires. He never gambles with questionable characters, tries to avoid one-and-done prospects if at all possible (Shaun Livingston really left a bad taste in his mouth in '04), and he gobbles up fundamentally sound white bigs: Shavlik Randolph Nick Horvath Josh McRoberts Mike Dunleavy Brian Zoubek Kyle Singler Ryan Kelly Mason Plumlee Miles Plumlee
I am thinking maybe one of his acolytes (current Harvard coach Tommy Amaker maybe?) will take the job when K retires and keep the show running. They've got a good brand, which is an asset that will help a future coach if he is smart.
He'll definitely pick from within "the family," which means these are the likely candidates: Steve Wojciechowski (current assistant) Chris Collins (current assistant) Tommy Amaker (HC at Harvard, nearly took them to the tourney this year) Johnny Dawkins (HC at Stanford, struggling to make noise, but was considered K's right-hand man during the late 90's/early 00's) Jeff Capel (likely out of the running after getting the boot at Oklahoma, but he did start for 4 years under K and was an academic AA; wouldn't be surprised to see him hired as an assistant) Mike Brey (HC at Notre Dame - sleeper pick, IMO; he was K's primary assistant for 8 years, which included 6 Final 4 trips & 2 Nat'l titles; recruited Ferry, Hurley, Laettner, and Hill) Quin Snyder (FAIL)
Johnny Dawkins would be at the head of the list. Duke and Coach K are nowhere near their current level of reputation and success without the foundation that Dawkins built by playing for Duke in the 80's and taking them to multiple Final Fours. Plus he spent the most number of years there as an assistant coach. And to answer the OP's question, the obvious answer is, no, of course not, Duke won't be able to sustain this kind of perennial performance once Coach K leaves. Did Dean Smith's immediate successor match his success? Knight's? Rupp's? Wooden's? The best case scenario is the Bill Guthridge comparison, or more realistically the kind of results Kentucky got with Pitino or UNC with Roy Williams. Basically, another great coach to come in and define his own era of sorts, have success, maybe get a title or two, but guys like Coach K are once in a generation. Coaching ability might have something to do with it, but honestly at this point it's just the aura factor. Early on good coaching and some luck in tournament results is vital, but once you get the ball rolling and build up a resume like he has, then that weight in terms of reputation becomes the main driver for success in things like recruiting and being picked to coach Team USA. No one's going to be able to replace that until they're at a school for at least a couple decades (and most other coaches that had the opportunity to do that bolted for the NBA, I'm sure Pitino is kicking himself now for leaving Kentucky when he easily could have competed with Coach K year in and year out for most successful NCAA coach).
Interesting -- I didn't realize Brey had a Coach K connection. I'm at ND right now, so I've watched Brey the last three years. I haven't really been that impressed, but he's dealing with a handicap recruiting basketball kids to a mid-west, cold, football school. He seems to prefer his teams keep it low-scoring and use the shot clock on each possession. I'd say it came about as close as you could get. Bill Guthridge went to the final four twice in his three years -- not much of a drop off at all. Duke would be lucky to ever get a Roy Williams type coach -- he won two championships in his first 6 years at Carolina. That's the same number of championships as Dean Smith. Of course, you could never compare the two: Dean Smith built the UNC brand the same way that Coach K has built the Duke brand. Even if another Duke coach wins 4 championships after he leaves, Coach K will always be the Godfather, so to speak.
Don't mind someone getting out when they sense the lights are about to go out, but still feels like quitting. One bad season and he's out. That said, college basketball is on it's last legs so who can blame him. It doesn't even feel like the winners really earn it anymore. Except for the finale, it felt like the team that sucked the least advances now. Product quality is really down and I don't see how it improves. The Blue bloods would likely fair better if they merged with the nba at this point.
I don't see how Duke can retain their dominance after Coach K retires. The program is already sliding and without Coach K there I have a hard time seeing how top talent will continue to go to Duke. I'm sure Jon Scheyer will coach in Krzyzewski's tradition and carry on the program but he just isn't the same name. If Duke wants to get back to prominence they should try to get Grant Hill or even Shane Battier, some big name from Duke's past, to coach.
Duke definitely isn’t going to have top prospects lined up like they do every year with coach K. They’re going to have to go back to the drawing board and be humbled again. Good players will still be interested in duke just based off the history but if they continue to not be competitive, the interest will be short lived and have a domino effect down the line
My best guess is that this will be the last year for the elite one-and-done recruits. Going forward, their team composition will be closer to UNC, where most recruits will play for 3-4 years. This will give new HC Jon Scheyer time to build team and culture. If Scheyer can establish himself as a quality D1 HC, the elite recruits will return. FWIW, I always thought that Brad Stevens would replace Coach K.
Duke was a blue blood program long before Coach K got there they went to the final four 2 yrs before he arrived. Thats why they were ready to fire him a couple years into his tenure because they had slipped. There will always be good coaches lining up to coach there.
