This is great news. DESPITE sectarian slaughter, ethnic cleansing and suicide bombs, an opinion poll conducted on the eve of the fourth anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq has found a striking resilience and optimism among the inhabitants. The poll, the biggest since coalition troops entered Iraq on March 20, 2003, shows that by a majority of two to one, Iraqis prefer the current leadership to Saddam Hussein’s regime, regardless of the security crisis and a lack of public services. The survey, published today, also reveals that contrary to the views of many western analysts, most Iraqis do not believe they are embroiled in a civil war. Officials in Washington and London are likely to be buoyed by the poll conducted by Opinion Research Business (ORB), a respected British market research company that funded its own survey of 5,019 Iraqis over the age of 18. The 400 interviewers who fanned out across Iraq last month found that the sense of security felt by Baghdad residents had significantly improved since polling carried out before the US announced in January that it was sending in a “surge” of more than 20,000 extra troops. The poll highlights the impact the sectarian violence has had. Some 26% of Iraqis - 15% of Sunnis and 34% of Shi’ites - have suffered the murder of a family member. Kidnapping has also played a terrifying role: 14% have had a relative, friend or colleague abducted, rising to 33% in Baghdad. Yet 49% of those questioned preferred life under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, to living under Saddam. Only 26% said things had been better in Saddam’s era, while 16% said the two leaders were as bad as each other and the rest did not know or refused to answer. Not surprisingly, the divisions in Iraqi society were reflected in statistics — Sunnis were more likely to back the previous Ba’athist regime (51%) while the Shi’ites (66%) preferred the Maliki government. Maliki, who derives a significant element of his support from Moqtada al-Sadr, the hardline Shi’ite militant, and his Mahdi army, has begun trying to overcome criticism that his government favours the Shi’ites, going out of his way to be seen with Sunni tribal leaders. He is also under pressure from the US to include more Sunnis in an expected government reshuffle. The poll suggests a significant increase in support for Maliki. A survey conducted by ORB in September last year found that only 29% of Iraqis had a favourable opinion of the prime minister. Another surprise was that only 27% believed they were caught up in a civil war. Again, that number divided along religious lines, with 41% of Sunnis believing Iraq was in a civil war, compared with only 15% of Shi’ites. The survey is a rare snapshot of Iraqi opinion because of the difficulty of working in the country, with the exception of Kurdish areas which are run as an essentially autonomous province. Most international organisations have pulled out of Iraq and diplomats are mostly holed-up in the Green Zone. The unexpected degree of optimism may signal a groundswell of hope at signs the American “surge” is starting to take effect. This weekend comments from Baghdad residents reflected the poll’s findings. Many said they were starting to feel more secure on the streets, although horrific bombings have continued. “The Americans have checkpoints and the most important thing is they don’t ask for ID, whether you are Sunni or Shi’ite,” said one resident. “There are no more fake checkpoints so you don’t need to be scared.” The inhabitants of a northern Baghdad district were heartened to see on the concrete blocks protecting an Iraqi army checkpoint the lettering: “Down, down with the militias, we are fighting for the sake of Iraq.” It would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. Residents said they noted that armed militias were off the streets. One question showed the sharp divide in attitudes towards the continued presence of foreign troops in Iraq. Some 53% of Iraqis nationwide agree that the security situation will improve in the weeks after a withdrawal by international forces, while only 26% think it will get worse. “We’ve been polling in Iraq since 2005 and the finding that most surprised us was how many Iraqis expressed support for the present government,” said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB. “Given the level of violence in Iraq, it shows an unexpected level of optimism.” Despite the sectarian divide, 64% of Iraqis still want to see a united Iraq under a central national government. One statistic that bodes ill for Iraq’s future is the number who have fled the country, many of them middle-class professionals. Baghdad has been hard hit by the brain drain — 35% said a family member had left the country. Additional reporting: Ali Rifat ORB interviewed a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults between February 10-22. The margin of error was +/- 1.4%. Related article.
Hmmm.... good point. This part really confused me: The interviewers "fanned out across Iraq" to find out how "Baghdad residents" feel? That makes as much sense as saying researchers fanned out across America to find out how Californians feel about legalizing weed. However, ORB's official website gave a pretty good explanation of their methodology (which wasn't clear from the article):
So, if we cut the bs out of this, its pretty much just your average opinion poll in Iraq? ...I'm still not impressed. First of all, the poll mentions that it covers every region of Iraq but never mentions the spread of results; for example, they could've questioned 5002 people in Baghdad and 17 others in outlying areas. And I know for sure they aren't going to the Sunni triangle for these results. Second, methodology is a bit wacked, I mean face-to-face interview? Iraq is a tense place, who knows how many Iraqis thought they were being interrogated by the US Army, factions etc. Iraq is a place where you have to closely guard what you say and I suspect quite a few answers were tainted that way. Third, percentages of how many Sunnis and Shiites were in the poll would help greatly, sicne it looks to me that Shiites seem to prefer Malaki just because he is a Shiite; that in of itself points somewhat to a racial divide/civil war stance. ...But with all that said, basically none of us know what Iraq is truly like unless we go live there; I sure as hell am not going to. So, this is an intresting glance into Iraq from the Iraqis I guess if you accept it.
I noticed this in the link: The initial article just focussed on Baghdad but it this survey shows that opinons are very different depending on the region. I'm not sure if the original article was trying to spin the results by focussing on Baghdad or that it was looking at Baghdad since that is the only area where the surge is in place.
This survey agrees with common sense. It's like asking someone whether they'd prefer Colombia or Cuba. Outside of the US in the past few decades, most people would prefer freedom to security.
Hmm...lets see. You have been ruled by a dictator for years and years. Now you are being ruled by an American military who pretty much believes that we shouldn't smack you around just because you are being you. BINGO! Life is better!
I'd agree. Of course the perception of life should be better. As bad as things might be right now, there is reason for optimism that it will end eventually. How? When? I don't know. But right now you have more freedom than you've had in a long time. Even if there is a war being waged, at least you have the hope that will it end. When Sadam was in power and his sons were at his side, there couldn't have been much reason to believe it would get any better.
Something...does...not...compute... Iraqis see hope drain away http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2007-03-18-poll-cover_N.htm 18: The percentage of Iraqis that have confidence in U.S.-led coalition troops as the war enters its fifth year today. Six in 10 Iraqis say their lives are going badly, and only one-third expect things to improve in the next year. Nearly 90 percent “say they live in fear that the violence ravaging their country will strike themselves and the people with whom they live.”
Those surveys aren't conflicting. Life can be pretty miserable and still be better than under Saddam.
Yes. Something does not seem right about this. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070319/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_poll;_ylt=AvHtBLQSbnwqnIHbplZpCcDMWM0F Poll: Fear, anger, stress grip Iraqis By WILL LESTER, Associated Press Writer 18 minutes ago WASHINGTON - The optimism that helped sustain Iraqis during the first few years of the war has dissolved into widespread fear, anger and distress amid unrelenting violence, a survey found. The poll — the third in Iraq since early 2004 by ABC News and media partners — draws a stark portrait of an increasingly pessimistic population under great emotional stress. Among the findings of this survey for ABC News, USA Today, the BBC and ARD German TV: _The number of Iraqis who say their own life is going well has dipped from 71 percent in November 2005 to 39 percent now. _About three-fourths of Iraqis report feelings of anger, depression and difficulty concentrating. _More than half of Iraqis have curtailed activities like going out of their homes, going to markets or other crowded places and traveling through police checkpoints. _Only 18 percent of Iraqis have confidence in U.S. and coalition troops, and 86 percent are concerned that someone in their household will be a victim of violence. _Slightly more than half of Iraqis — 51 percent — now say that violence against U.S. forces is acceptable — up from 17 percent who felt that way in early 2004. More than nine in 10 Sunni Arabs in Iraq now feel this way. _While 63 percent said they felt very safe in their neighborhoods in late 2005, only 26 percent feel that way now. The major cause for this sharp reversal in Iraqi attitudes is the continuing violence — bombings, attacks by roving gunmen and kidnappings — that has overwhelmed the country since the U.S. invasion four years ago this week. Eighty percent of Iraqis surveyed reported some kind of violence nearby, according to the nationally representative survey conducted Feb. 25 to March 5 among 2,212 Iraqis, including oversamples in Anbar province, the Sadr City section of Baghdad, Basra and Kirkuk. Results were subject to a sampling error margin of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The survey was done by D3 Systems, a pollster specializing in conflict countries Iraqi civilian deaths are estimated at more than 54,000, possibly much higher. More than half of Iraqis surveyed said a friend or relative has been hurt or killed in the violence, while almost nine in 10 worried that a loved one will be hurt. The levels of stress soar outside relatively peaceful Kurdistan, especially in Baghdad and the Sunni-dominated Anbar province, the poll found. Fewer than half in the country, 42 percent, said that life in Iraq now is better than it was under Saddam Hussein, the late dictator accused of murdering tens of thousands during a brutal regime. Iraqis pessimism about safety spills over into their views of most aspects of life — the economy, basic needs like power and clean water, even the risks of sending their children to school. But views of the U.S. military presence are contradictory among Iraqis — just as they are in this country. About four in five Iraqis oppose the presence of U.S. troops but only a third want those U.S. troops to leave Iraq immediately. Conducting the face-to-face poll was a difficult ordeal in such a violent country. More than 100 Iraqi interviewers conducted the poll and some reported seeing bombings, beatings and even a mass kidnapping. Several teams of interviewers were detained by police — but every interviewer made it home safely.
