(I hope its ok to make a separate trade about this, if not, pls merge. And this is on the long side.) I'd like to discuss team direction, our real options, and the current state of WC power rankings. Team Direction and Options: Mad Max and others against the proposed trade - I understand the frustration b/c conventional wisdom is to tank and get a high lotto pick. Unfortunately, unless we get a new owner, that's not an option. So, what can Morey do? Option 1. Get the megastars (Dwill, Howard and CP3)? For now, the megastars don't want to play here. It sucks but we can't get them. If we could, I'm pretty sure Morey would go all in to get just one. So, its frustrating, but that's not an option. (Maybe you disagree with this premise, but I don't see how this would be possible). What is left? Option 2. Gather enough bonafide B+ players, allow your young players to develop, hope one turns into the next Paul Pierce or Danny Granger, and compete ... while simultaneously positioning yourself to grab a megastar, if that somehow becomes possible. I think that's exactly what Morey's doing. Option 3. Stand pat? I can't see how we are better off not doing this trade (and standing pat). We know the core from last year is going to get the 13th or 14th pick overall. Not good enough to make the playoffs. Not bad enough to get a meaningful pick. The choices aint great, but it's obvious we should pick door #2. It's the only option that has any potential for success. So, maybe you disagree more about the execution of option 2 (not the choice of it). Before getting into how Morey could do better in executing Option 2, let's talk about the WC landscape. WC Landscape It is still fluid with FA, but the middle and bottom of the WC playoff landscape has changed. The top: OKC, LA and DAL are likely top 3 seeds, although you can argue that DAL will suffer mightily with championship hangover and the loss of Chandler and Barrea. The middle: If we get Gasol and Nene, we are looking at a 4-5 seed. SA continues to age. They secured the top seed last year, but got bounced by Mem in the 1st round. The condensed schedule will hurt them the most because of their age. Mem will be here assuming they keep Gasol. New Orleans is retooling but will have enough to be in this mix. In this group, I'd like our team's chances of landing the 4 seed. The bottom: Denver and Portland are screwed for different reasons. Someone will have to get the 7 and 8 seeds though. It could be PHX, LAC, POR. But these teams are first round outs. Can Houston threaten the top 3 in the West by adding Gasol and Nene? We have a three year window to do it, and it is possible if (i) Lowry's game bumps up a touch, (ii) we have something in Morris and/or PatPat, (iii) DMo or Llul contribute, and/or (iv) if we make an additional move to bring in a rotation player.... Would we be overpaying to get Nene at $15MM per year? NO. In a capped league with spending minimums, the number of people you should be willing to give near max money goes up. Sure, everyone would rather get Lebron for max money than Nene, but it's not that Nene is overpaid, but Lebron is underpaid. nene at $15MM is the right value based on scarcity. Look at it like this. Teams have more money available than quality players. Quality bigs are scarce, and teams should be willing to pay a lot. The dropoff between a quality big, and the stiffs that everyone else has is huge. In contrast, there are plenty of mid level/competent wing players that can be had. The smart GM's propioritize by going for megastars first, and then quality Bigs, even if you have to overpay with trade chips or dollars. If you can grab either or both, you do it. And then you carefully choose wing/role players -- of which there are tons -- and you get value and production out of reasonable FA's or draft picks (like your Shannon Browns, PatPat, Courtney Lee and Buddingers). It is fools gold to have average or above wing players when you don't have stars and/or quality bigs, which is exactly where we would be with last year's roster. This isn't In Morey We Trust. He just happens to be making the right choice in a situation where the 2 best options are not available to him.
Repped. As I said in the big thread, Morey has a record of getting above average talent out of crap, so I have no doubt he can replace Scola and Kmart talent wise in no time at all. I just wish we could keep Scola because the guy is so classy. I will always be a fan.
I hear ya man. We've got to get Nene in this scenario though. Dalembert and Gasol just doesn't do it for me.
Rileydog, this is a fantastic post. You summed up my thoughts better than I could have said it, especially the way you laid out the three options. That's my main disagreement with what MadMax has been posting: Like you, I only see those three options, and out of those, option 1 is not available and option 3 guarantees mediocrity. So while we would all love option 1, as it is not available, option 2 is the only way to go, really. I would like to see MadMax explain what better option he sees now. The only thing I would disagree with/am not sure about is paying Nene that much money. I understand your argument saying that it's not that Nene is overpaid, but Lebron is underpaid, but I feel like paying Nene that much money at his age and with his illness/injury history might tie our hands too much for the future. I don't really have a better suggestion at this point, though. Maybe somehow leaving Scola out of the deal and keeping him. I just don't see how Nene would be worth $ 5-6M per year more than Scola.
The OP is discussing things both from a macro and micro perspective, yet he are lumping both of them in one course of action. Macro perspective: Option 1, 2 and 3. Micro perspective: Do this trade or not do this trade. Why does picking option 2 somehow result in doing the trade? I don't like the deal that was vetoed by the NBA, and I certainly don't like the latest rumor regarding the new trade (where we add Lee or PP to sweeten the deal). Nene and Gasol with other parts would be nice, just the two of them and Lowry? Not so much, I'd rather just wait for other options this season or the next.
Around the World - About Nene's value, i think upgrading bigs costs a lot bc the better the big, the more scarce.
My answer to that would be that you always go for the best player you can obtain in a deal. On a scale from 1-10, if you can bundle two 7 players for a 9 player, you should do it, because you will never get a 10 player for two 7 players, but you might eventually get a 10 player for a 9 player and a young 6 player with much upside and a pick.
Picking Option 2 doesn't mean you have to do this trade. I'm advocating doing the trade, rather than waiting for another opportunity for Option 2. This is in large part b/c I like the deal (but maybe not if we're giving up Lee or PatPat, I'd deal buddinger tho), and because (as a season ticket holder) I don't want to see last year's group again. I've seen that movie and it aint great.
Just because Les won't allow them to lose in the short term doesn't mean it's not an option available to him. This is what Drayton got bashed for...for failing to realize where his franchise was and what it would take to get back. Morey himself has made it clear that losing is the quickest/easiest way for this team to turn itself into a contender...but then said Les won't allow it. In what is a shortened season anyway...don't make trades to become incrementally better...play young guys...tell people Martin/Scola/whoever else is on the block and insist on draft picks or young cheap talent. Do NOT trade for big contracts with guys who are on the wrong side of 30. Do NOT pay someone like Nene $15 million/year. Your moves need to be centered around bringing in the next player this franchise can truly build around to be a contender. That's it. That's my plan. And contrary to ATW's post, you can find me saying that same thing about 100 times in the big thread about the Gasol trade. Clutch posted a blog arguing the very same thing just a week or so back. I cited to that blog about 10 times in that thread arguing the same. You can read it on the front page of the website and there was a lengthy thread on it as well.
Can you please explain that? How is an option available to an employee if his employer expressly forbids it?
Here's ESPN's John Hollinger's take on the trade when it was voided by Stern: John Hollinger @johnhollinger 13 hrs Reply Retweet Favorite ยท Open Lakers would have had no bench, no frontcourt, and virtually no chance at Dwight Howard. Houston, if Nene came, was potential top seed. I, too, like the Gasol+Nene front court a lot.
The option is available to Les. He's the owner. It's HIS franchise that we're all fans of. It's absolutely available to the Rockets...as it was to the Astros....to take the long term approach instead of playing for the short term. To recognize where you are...what it takes..and how far you truly are from that.
So your plan is to keep losing and hope you will luck out in the draft? I was on the tanking train myself for this season, but there are some teams who have been following that strategy and never won a championship or even got close anyway (e.g., Clippers). Actually, except for the Spurs with Duncan, the NBA champions the last 10 years or so never won built around a no. 1 pick.
Yes, but the option is not available to Morey. And frankly, as there is no guarantee that losing gets you a #1 pick and no guarantee that a #1 pick gets you a championship, I understand an owner that says he doesn't want to sacrifice his short-term financial interests and brand value for a very uncertain return in the future. Also, it's not like we can't still lose and thereby get a better draft pick... Also, Morey always seemed to be collecting more draft picks, rather than giving them away, which doesn't seem like looking at the short term only to me.
yep..for some it hasn't worked out. but for the most part, you build champions by finding that piece in the draft. you supplement around it. there is no perfect solution ever..there is no 100% shot at anything. there's always risk. except for the spurs? geez, the spurs won 3 titles in those 10 years. the lakers essentially drafted kobe..they acquired him on draft night as a player right out of high school. the mavericks drafted dirk. the celtics drafted pierce. the heat drafted wade. the only real exception to this is the lakers with shaq being the dominant player.
I didn't say it was available to Morey...though one could argue that it's incumbent on management to persuade ownership on how to go; particularly so when their job is on the line and they know infinitely more about how to build a team than the owner does. See Gary Kubiak - David Carr extension. You don't have to have the #1 pick. The question in the thread, as I understand it, is how to build a champion contender...not how to meet short term financial interests. Those two goals are often mutually exclusive.
Who says we will win more games with Gasol instead of with Martin/Scola? Perhaps we will lose more games and get a better draft pick that gets us a Batman. Then we have a better Robin to our Batman already.
