If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Sounded like Maldonado had a similar story this offseason.

 

I will say this much: while at a ground level it is a purely business decision to bust over the tax threshold, it will take a LOT of gut-wrenching determination to NOT offer Cole something significant in order to get him to stay.

Crane has a big decision to make this offseason.

 

If we can't keep him, we have to shave his head, just in case, like Samson, that's where his power comes from.

 

Who was stubborn? Who was reasonable? Who chose to leave money on the table? Who held out for more? Who turned down what? An agent can't accept an offer for his client, but yes, they can both misjudge the market. We know what Keuchel turned down from the Stros, that's his call ultimately.

 

Keuchel and Marwin were wise business decisions to not offer big contracts. Verlander, Altuve, Brantley and Bregman were wise decisions to dole out big contracts.

Cole would obviously fall in the Verlander meets Altuve category.

 

If Astros do not pay the man, just remember Nolan Ryan's situation 20 years ago.

 

Players aren't financial experts - they rely on and trust agents for professional financial advice. They aren't both making the mistake.

When one agent consistently has more misjudgments than all the other agents, they are probably the stubborn or misinformed one, unless you believe that agent just happens to get lots of stubborn clients.

 

His Hall of Fame induction?

 

He launched Nohlahn Rhyahn Beef

 

I'm starting to think we should pay the man. At most we are going to be in the tax for another 2 years. That is 2 more years of title contention with a starting rotation of Verlander, Cole, and Greinke with a offensive core of Altvue, Bregman, Alvarez, Correa and Tucker. You don't get a chance to field a dynasty often unless you are New York.

 

Me too. The structure of the contracts on the books lines up with the penalty increasing dramatically after 3 years of being over the tax. Verlander, Greinke, McCullers and Correa represent ~$70M that would be coming off the books after 2021. If they could somehow convince Springer to delay free agency by 1 year that would add to that amount. I would predict whichever catchers and starting pitchers (other than Cole) they sign this offseason would be on 2 year deals. Houston could try for a dynasty then reassess after 2021; if the future still looks bright they can take one year off under the tax to reset, then go back at it. If they felt they needed to rebuild, it should be a quick one since they’d have Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and Cole to deal for major prospect returns.

The draft pick getting moved back 10 spots is not really a factor to me; picking at 41 vs 31 is no big deal if it means keeping one of the top 5 pitchers in the game another 5 seasons.

One note is that the cba expires in 2021, so that may also be a reason they are lining up their payroll this way. Who knows what changes could come with the new deal.

Exciting stuff. They could field the best team in baseball history next year.

 

If Crane is willing to pay the cost for Cole + tax fines, that would be awesome. It would be special to know their thinking and hear their reasoning, especially knowing the finances behind it all.

 

No way the Astros pay Correa. His back is going to shorten his Career.

 

Back of the envelope, if they extend Springer, Correa, and Cole:

2020: $250M/63war
2021: $225M/60war
2022: $170M/51war
2023: $180M/53war

 

This.

 

Too bad Greinke didn't finish off the no hitter in his last regular season start as an Astro

 

Yes. The hard part is if Crane and the FO deem it not so. They may say the best way to keep our organization competitive over the next 20 years is NOT to give Cole a long term contract. That will hurt, but I'll accept it.

 

Nope. ZERO chance we offload Greinke. The only reason scenario we get Cole is by paying him and the tax.

As it stands, we are close enough to the 208 million even without Cole. As I've shown before, even if you remove Greinke and Reddick, adding Cole still leaves us with at least 10-15 million of needed FAs. Removing Greinke+ removing Reddick+ adding FAs doesn't leave room for Cole AND keep us under the tax penalty.

The only real Cole scenario is Crane going balls out.

 

How did you get these #s?

 

https://ibb.co/M5ccprB

A spreadsheet I made just now. Caveat: it is not 100% accurate and obviously virtually every estimate is up for total debate.