If you score TD first in OT, do you go for 2pt conversion?

If my defense sucks and the opposing offense is good then yeah.

 

As far as taking the ball: Defenses are exhausted by that point in the game. Adrenaline and effort catch up to you. I want my defense to rest. And I want their defense on the field. That's my first priority. Take the ball. McCaffrey was chunking them, so I think it was the right decision.

Second. I agree with the 49ers strategy. They changed the rules because sudden death favors the offense analytically. So analytically, we all know that is absolutely true. It's mathematically favorable.

In opposition they will argue that the Chiefs had 4 gowns. But the truth is both teams have four downs if they want it. So while I get that argument, it's not really true.

I would not go for two either. It's a coin flip to get the 2, therefore a coin flip to win or lose. And I don't want to be the team putting my superbowl on a coin flip. I'd rather put my trust in a kick and let the other team gamble.

 

Not if you score first.

If you score second, instead of kicking for the tie, you should go for two since the other team probably owns your defense and will kick a short FG to win on the following possession.

Think of the Falcons in SB51. If today's rules applied then and they scored an OT TD following the Pats, they would definitely have gone for two to win because Brady was shredding their defense like cheese.

EDIT: Kyle Shanahan made a big mistake by taking the ball first. He'll have a hard time living that down just like calling two pass plays (1 holding penalty, 1 sack) after the Falcons were in clinching FG range.

 

Someone please explain to me how taking the ball first is a mistake.

Your defense gets to rest and in the event of a 3rd possession you get to go first in sudden death.

The mistake was kicking the fieldgoal and not going for the touchdown.

The odds you can get 4 yards and/or score from there are probably greater than the odds you can stop Mahomes from scoring once he gets the ball.

Of course at that point it the 2-pt conversion becomes a real option. But that's an MMQB debate for another day.

 

If the 49ers deferred and the Chiefs scored a TD+1 on the first possessions, the 49ers would have gained an extra down when they had the ball. By taking the ball first, the 49ers settled for a short FG instead and lost.

 

I think this is going to be how we start seeing stuff playing out in the future.

You want to be able to dictate the terms of how the games end, and going for two works to that end.

I still think we need to adopt the college OT format.

 

There is nothing stopping the 49ers from using their 4th downs on their own first drive.

They know just as well as anyone that doing anything other than scoring 8 points puts them in a sudden death situation.

There is no advantage to going second.

 

This makes no sense if the two-point try chance of success is less than 50%.

 

Yes, there was literally nothing stopping them...except they faced a 4th and 4 on the KC 9 yard-line. Failing to convert and scoring nothing was giving the game away easy.

 

We don't really know what the success rate is of 2 point tries in OT in the NFL.

In college OT the data says you should always go for 2 in OT, FWIW.

The NFL is such an offensively bias league it stands to reason that you'd want to end the game, win or lose, with the ball in your own hands and the decisions you make with it.

If your offense sucks dog balls and your defense is elite that's a different story, but that's becoming more and more rare over time in terms of championship caliber teams.

 

There's no scenario where the 49ers have more options or more advantages by giving the Chiefs the ball first. Anything you say the Chiefs can do on their 2nd possession, the 49ers can do on their first. They might not take advantage of those options, but that's a choice they get to make.

There are many advantages the team possessing the ball first has - the most important of which is total control of their own destiny, which the 2nd team doesn't have.

 

This 49ers reporter (the best one IMO), has some insights on possibly why they decided to go on offense first in OT.