That's assuming Paul and LeBron agree to leave something on table, not take super max. That s assuming Moute doesn't get a sweeter deal than MLE from another team. And Rockets only have bird rights to Ariza and Capela, so can re-sign if willing to go over LT. JJ and Wright are almost sure likely losses. The loss of EGo is very significant especially if G money gets offered more than min by another team. No matter how you cut it, the depth will not be as good as this season UNLESS Rockets can lure quality players at min deals. That could mean losing Nene and/or Tucker at some point.
Then I still don't get what that has to do with LBJ being lame like KD. KD not being a centerpoint isn't going to affect LBJ's decision if his best choice is to join two HOFers, MDA, and a team that's willing to share the ball and pay the luxury tax, which would include his full and expected value.
ESPN article: 158.9 million base salary = 308.1 (salary and tax) Yours is 186 million base salary. Many fans here are not conservative and realistic enough like Tilman.
No is NOT. Lebron would be Under Contract - Opt In and Trade. He'd be a FA after that season .... and the only issue with his contract would be how it affected the tax. CP3 would be a free agent and the Rockets have his bird rights.
Nice edit. Except that again, we're not a multiple time tax payer, which adds additional penalization to the luxury tax. Dude, just do the math. That's what I'm asking for. You can't just extrapolate a direct relationship without knowing the nuances, which is what I'm searching for here. Edit: And by the way, assuming a direct relationship based on the outcome of someone else's study is neither conservative nor realistic. So no, you're NOT like Tillman.
The luxury tax threshold in 2018-19 would fall at approximately $120.8 million. 186-121 = 65 million luxury taxes (not 63M)
That proves nothing. Have you ever done an iBanking, PE, or consulting case study? These are back of the envelope calculation so there's some error, but at the same time those are tolerated for prelim numbers as: 1) it's immaterial, and 2) it's unlikely to make a difference in the overall decision seeing as to how the luxury tax penalties are multiples with large marginal increases for each progressive level over the salary cap limit. Edit: AGAIN, you've completely disregarded the fact that we're not repeat luxury tax spenders like the Cavs are...which is an effect built into that article. It wouldn't apply to us with LBJ.
He is business man first and he makes valid points. I have no doubt he will take risks, but they are going to be carefully calculated with DM and the rest of the org. Just like they are suppose to.
Okay, I admit I forgot about having Paul's bird rights. But losing EGo, Green, Wright, Johnson and possibly Luc is more than just losing one rotation player. You are seeing best case scenario, I'm showing worst case. And I'm still not certain Rockets would match if Ariza offered more than 10M elsewhere. Plus, I still maintain that the loss if EGo is insignificant. Not all rotational players are created equal. EGo is a critical piece of Rockets success.
Assumption: Rockets are unable to win the Conference this season. Most likely outcome: Rockets budget is $140 million base salary (180 Million including tax) Cavs spent 160 million salary and taxes, lost 40 million in cash last season (Cavs make money in the nba finals)
You're moving the goal posts to outside the scope of this request. If you can't prove your point without messing with the premise, your point holds no water. You just wanted to prove how smart you were because you "read the article", but you failed to do any research. Move on.
Nice additional edit after the fact. Losses are tolerated from time-to-time. Especially here because Tillman said he would do it if he thought it would bring the hardware. So I ask you, are you implying that Tillman wouldn't pay his salary and associated tax if LBJ joined us? If so, please tell me how you have insight into his cost-benefit threshold AND what the ultimate number is. Because it's likely to be a smaller total cost as (AGAIN) we're not repeat luxury tax offenders.
If Rockets match Capela offer sheet at 20 million starting, then will not match any of the Ariza, LMM, Wright and Iso Joe even if it is only 6 million. Capela 20 million is entirely taxable. 99% role players refused to get big pay cut like 10 million.
We're under the tax threshold currently. If Cap gets 20, and we release those guys you mentioned (all else equal), then not all of Caps 20 is subject to luxury tax. It's just the amount over the luxury tax line. http://www.spotrac.com/nba/houston-rockets/cap/
Except that LMaM did it to join us this year. Dirk took a paycut to stay in Dallas. And even past all stars have taken paycuts to be on their preferred team.
This is just my personal opinion: Rockets have no cap space (no threat). If Rockets want LeBron, Dan Gilbert would include T Thompson and JR Smith contracts in the package and take Ryan Anderson contract out of consideration. Without LeBron and Irving, he refuses to pay repeater taxes, and wants future.
I don't see Luc going anywhere (I agree he's a big deal) , you give him the MLE. Ariza I think signs a 3/30-36ish deal , maybe a 4th year team option. .... he doesn't want to go anywhere. Capela gets matched , don't know what Cp3 costs but they get a deal done. They will have non bird rights on Green , Wright & JJ. That allows them to offer then 120% of the Vet min. I believe Green takes that and stays. As for Johnson & Wright , I don't know what the market is for them .... is either worth MLE money elsewhere ?! Don't really think they are critical to next years Rockets anyhow - this team got to 43-13 without either contributing a minute. If they stay great , if not ..... meh. Sure EG is a crucial piece of this years Rockets .... but if you add Lebron , you really don't need EG. It changes the dynamic because you'd almost always have two of your three stars on the floor all the time.... How do teams defend Harden / CP3 / Lebron !?? You are looking for a 3&D wing to replace EG .... because Lebron can give you the playmaking you lost. CP3 / Harden Ariza / Lebron / Luc / Tucker / Green Capela / Nene / Zhou / Onuaku You've got 4 open roster spots - looking to replace Black , a 3rd point and a bigger forward.
Sure, they'll hardball us, but that doesn't mean we can't find a way. The hurdle is high, but you can't completely disregard DM. He could try to flip some pieces for expiring contracts, which would then be used in the deal with CLE. TT and JR would likely be offered, but then again there's always Sacramento or NYK to take our trash (jk, kind of). Either way, not having cap space and Gilbert trying to force feed us two bad contracts are not complementary arguments. We can't sign him outright, sure, but a trade that puts us over the cap could be possible if we put a package together that satisfies the trade rules. I'll admit, that's seemingly unlikely, but then again, he and his army scour the rules for leverage 24/7. Way more than you or me. And given his craftiness in the past, I'm going to go ahead and say nothing is impossible (as you're inferring).
Believe me, Cavs will reject the deal like this: Ryan/Gordon for LeBron. Nobody want Ryan's contract.
