I can't believe the mayor is going to wait until noon today to order evacuations! I interned there this summer and it was pretty bad when tropical storm Cindy came along. People were always telling me how they would be SCREWED if a major hurricane made landfall just west of the city. The Mississippi River would start flowing backwards and the whole city would be flooded because the water would be trapped in the levees. I hope everyone leaves early, because getting to Baton Rouge will be a b****.
my roommate is in Miami working the VMA's and I am worried about him... they arent cancelling any events so far and people are dying in South Florida... he told me he is working over 100 hours this week, is MTV nuts?? the lasik, you must be in New Orleans... damn, my whole family lives in N.O., all my aunts uncles cousins and grandparents. i hope they go west to Houston , where my parents could take them in...
I was there for 3 months this summer (back in Houston now, then off to Austin for school) and I got to see first hand how vulnerable the city is. The city is basically a bowl because of the levees, so if any of the water from Lake Ponchatrain or the river overflows into the city, there will be MAJOR damage. They would have to pump all that water back out into the river, and there is no telling how long that would take. I just hope people pack up their things and leave now.
This thing snuck up on us...winds at 115, with 2 or 3 more days of intensifying? This could be a monster. DD
Good luck to y'all down on the Gulf. One of the advantages of living in the middle of the continent in the upper Midwest is no hurricanes or earthquakes.
If I were in NO, I'd be concerned. All the model guidance is now in excellent agreement. There is less than a 100-mile spread in the landfall estimates down from around 300 miles a couple days ago. If you look at the most recent radar, you can see the thing starting to nudge west-northwest and it will make that eventual turn more northerly. Given the level of NO (below sea level), I'd be making plans to evacuate now. If it comes ashore around Buras or just slightly east, it is going to go straight across NO from the southwest meaning NO will get the worst quadrant of the storm. All predictors for strengthening bring it to a cat. 4 by landfall. No reason to think it won't be a solid cat. 4 given the time frame. There is some shear out there, but it is diminishing, so this should be a powerful storm when it makes landfall.
Just took a look at the latest model guidance. Now, they are within a 50-mile radius with only one outlier to the east. All of them show Katrina coming onshore right near the mouth of the Mississippi, possibly just to the east of New Orleans near the LA/Miss border. Watching radar, I bet the next advisory has the storm moving west-northwest because you can see it nudging that direction. The turn to the northwest will probably happen late tonight or early tomorrow.
Worst case scenario for NO is a hurricane that moves up the mouth of the Mississippi coming from southeast and moving northwest. That kind of surge would push water right up the Mississippi into NO. This storm looks as though the landfall will be between Buras and the mouth of the Mississippi and it could be VERY dangerous. Depending on when it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle, this could be a cat. 5 when it makes landfall. Scary. The eye is only about 10 miles across with the strongest winds going out only about 50 miles. That probably won't change much. That is why exact landfall is so critical in the case of New Orleans.
I was just looking at the latest updates. Anyone who can evacuate NO should do it. This is going to be a storm that pushes close to 140 mph sustained winds on shore with a 20+ foot storm surge. The water in front of it on its way north is warm and there is very low vertical shear which means this thing will get stronger before landfall, not weaker. All models have it making a b-line for the northeastern LA coast just to the west of New Orleans putting NO in the path of the worst part of the storm. Everybody be safe.
Ya I live off campus and go to Tulane, and they're cancelling class all next week. Second year in a row class has been cancelled because of a hurricane, except this one looks much worse - our neighbors even boarded up their windows.
I think the key here is whether or not the storm hits west or east of New Orleanes. If its west, it could be the end of that city. I saw a think on discovery channel along time ago that in the rare even that a major hurricane took a certain route, then it would wipe out NO. That route they spoke of looks very similar to the way this storm is headed.
Hopefully those of you in Lousiana are getting the hell out of this things way. I'm worried about NOLA. We're getting some strange weather here in Houston at the moment too. Lots of wind, lightning, and rain outside at the moment. Does this have anything to do with the hurricane?
Hell yeah thatt was crazy. About one hour ago, it got real windy. I went outside to check it out, and the trees were swaying real bad. I saw flashes in the sky, but nothing else. As of right now, I can hear the thunder roll. My lights flickered off for a bit around 10:20.
