The US government takes around 40%, the states take up to 10 percent when he is not playing in houston, and the chinese government takes 10%. I'd say that the governments are taking around 50%.
Anyone knows Yao's deal with shoe's companies? Yao is the one with traditional chinese culture. Honest and care are important than money. He will no betray rockets if Rockets take care of him. Do not worry. As long as he plays like last night, No way Rockets do not treat him well.
Franchise players rarely get traded; typically only if they have baggage, if a team is slashing payroll, or if the team is concerned the player will walk for nothing. Otherwise, so much marketing effort is placed in selling the stars in the NBA, that it rarely makes sense to trade your ticket seller mistream during your marketing campaign. This is a star-driven league, more so than the NFL, which is more of a team-driven league. Yao is the Rockets' major marketing piece. Maybe even the NBA's major marketing piece, as it attempts to go global. As it stands now, I cannot see anyone ever offering us the amount of talent it would take to pry our hands off of him.
trust me, in the end money will be pretty important, im sure team yao will have more influence on that than the CBA. Yao would probably want to stay here, but he's going to use what he's got to get the best deal he can get.
The best deal he can is with the Rockets. Like I've said, if he can commit to us his third year, I'd do carwheels. If not, sign him for an extension and see which team is willing to hire him for a year (not the mention the right to sign him to the biggest contract he can get) and see what we can get back. Though if he doesn't sign the max deal by the end of next year, I hope the rox send him to an eastern team just so it wont come back to bite us should we still be able to make the playoffs.
At a minimum, the Rockets have Yao for 3 more seasons after this one. That's a long time. Seems a little silly to be worrying about what a 2nd year player will do in his 6th season. If we haven't become a legit contender after 5 years, then start to worry. If we're a contender, I'll bet Yao doesn't go anywhere. Reminds me alot of the "Francis will go to Washington and play for Jordan" scenarios that people kept bringing up a couple of years ago.
Raven: All your analysis is fine, except you forget about one key thing: the risk of injury. IMO, the odds of Yao entering his last year on his current deal without agreeing to an extension are almost nil. He's had injury problems in the past. He's not going to risk breaking a foot and ending his career without that nice, fat contract. He'd be stupid to do so. Of course, it's fully possible he'll seek a trade at some point - but we'd get something very nice in return.
Man, you got the things totally wrong. What's important here is who has more leverage during negotiation. You obviously think Rox has more. But the truth is Yao has ALL the leverage when the constract is up and he plays like mega star. Rox has none, I mean zero when that is the case. It is going to be like gambling because Rox would never be willing to do anything you mentioned as long as there is a little hope to sign him. Yao is not going to tell Rox he would or would not to sign to keep Rox hope up. The extra money Rox could offer would not be signicant if Yao goes to big market and gets a lot more income because of that. I do not see that is a big deal to Yao. No team would trade for him if they are not sure he would sign with them, after having to give up a lot for the trade. Yao has complete control here again.
As long as he does not have career ending injury, he will get max anywhere. How much chance is that? Very low given the way he plays and how young he is now. From another perspective, rookie contract could be the ONLY chance for Yao to switch team. As he finishes his fist max, he probably would not take the risk like you said.
Why do so few max players actually leave? Even if there are rumors that they're unhappy? The leverage is not as you claim. 1. The Rockets can pay him more. 2. The risk of injury is significant, especially for a big man. It's not really worth it on this board... but do a quick decision tree risk analysis in your head. The risk of injury in a year before contract is a tremendous incentive to sign a new contract. Conversely, this incentive is actually less after the first max contract, because of the proportionate decline of expected income compared to net worth.
In the current environment, if a player doesn't take the max after his third year, it means he wants to leave, there's no other reason why he wouldn't take the max. At that point the Rox will have to trade him. We might get crap back, but if we can atleast get something back it will be worth it.
1. How much more Rox could pay? Anybody knows. I have no clue. Besides, I guess there is going to be new CBA soon. A lot of thing could change. 2. You are absolutely right. Few max player leaves. But the ones that leave are the ones like Shaq who is not only max player but has a lot of leverage. Yao would have as much as Shaq had due to his maketing appeal AND skills. Yao is going to earn a lot more from other sources than his contract.
Have you ever gambled before? Rox is not going to give up like that. Hard ball is not going to work at all. Look at Lakers, so far they have not traded Kobe despite all the craps going on.
Yao Ming rules!! He is the future of this franchise, it has been stated many many times. There is no way CD and the Rockets are gonna let him go. They would trade Steve, Cat, Mo before they let Yao loose. Not only that, Yao is a marketing machine and great for the city. I don't want to see him go...for he is my son
Can anyone clarify if Yao can make as much as Shaq salary-wise under the current CBA? Shaq is making an awfully huge salary and i was wondering is that due to his max contract +tenure or is it due to a more lenient CBA back when he signed it ie. Kevin Garnett.
the thing you are overlooking is...we can offer him the max before he is available to be wooed by any other team. there is no way in hell the Rockets dont attempt to lock him up while he is still restricted. the only way Yao leaves is if he forces a trade..
Hmm...there might be another factor coming in. Is there any possibility of an alliance between NBA, ESPN, David Stern, and the league of team owners to concoct a plan that ultimately brings Yao Ming to the big teams/cities? Because by 2 years time, NBA could have a marketing machine already running at full steam in China. If Rockets don't gain much in popularity by then, David might give up on Houston. The fact is, LA Lakers is still the most well known basketball team in Asia, especially China. Just a thought.
Say, what I once read on Yaoming's homepage Someone Asking-" someone said you were going to leave Rox, is it true"? Yao Re-"that's fine only if it's not said by CD"
Hmm..let's see...the MVP of the last two seasons plays in San Antonio, the leading candidate for this year's MVP plays in Minneapolis, last year's leading scorer plays in Orlando. Somehow, I'm not sensing any conspiracy to get the stars to play in big markets. Keep in mind that the Rockets have Yao for 3 more seasons after this year, not just two as everyone keeps mentioning. His rookie contract is for 3 years and runs through next season ('04-05). The Rockets have a team option for a 4th year ('05-'06). Additionally, the Rockets would have the right of first refusal on Yao after his 4th year. That means that Yao would be a restricted free agent and would be eligible to sign an offer sheet with another team. Offer sheets must be for a minimum of three years and if Yao signed another team's offer sheet, the Rockets could simply match the offer and retain Yao for the terms of the offer sheet (i.e. at least 3 more years). That's exactly what happened with Elton Brand. He played 4 seasons with the Clips, signed an offer sheet with the Heat, the Clippers matched and now he's locked up for 6 more seasons. Yao's only other choice would be to accept a one year Qualifying Offer (125% of his 4th year salary) from Houston, play a 5th year here and then become an unrestricted free agent. That's what Olowakandi did. He played with the Clips for 4 season's, took their qualifying offer, played a 5th season there and then left. So, at a minimum, we can keep Yao through ('06-07). As far as the difference between what Houston can pay Yao vs what other teams can, it comes down to this: Houston can sign Yao to a maximum 7 year deal, with a salary increase of 12.5% and we can exceed the cap to pay him. Any other team would have to have cap space or an exception to cover Yao's contract. Also, that team could only give Yao a 6 year deal with 10% increases. So, if you assume a first year salary of $10M, the Rockets could offer Yao a 7 year $96M deal. Any other team could only offer him a 6 year $75M package. Also, factor in that in order to leave as an unrestricted free agent, Yao would have to play his 5th year for about $5M. That would mean that he would be losing an additional $5M by not signing a Max extension. So, would Yao leave ~$26M on the table? I have no idea, but I also have absolutely no indication that Yao would want to leave Houston in the first place. After 5 years, I've got to believe that we'll be a legit contender and Yao will be pretty well established in Houston. I don't really see any reason to worry about something that is so unlikely and can't happen for three and a half seasons anyway.
