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How much money and how many free agents do we need to win in 08?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by redgoose, Aug 3, 2007.

  1. redgoose

    redgoose Contributing Member

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    Pitching is definitely the #1 priority and should always be every year. However, without an improved lineup we'll be seeing similar pitching outings like ones from Clemens we used to always see and gripe about when he should have won about every game he pitched getting maybe 1 sometimes 2 for support. Oswalt will lose about 5 games he shouldn't and throw in some no decisions here and there as well for everyone.

    I posted earlier how we can already bolster our lineup within the organization with Ty at 3rd, Bruntlett at SS, Loretta/Burke at 2nd, and a new catcher. All small improvements that cost us little, but combined should make a difference especially if we sign a RF or CF slugger.

    I really don't see the best available pitchers wanting to play somewhere that Roy Oswalt can't win a Cy Young and Clemens/Petitte didn't win many games due to run support. Don't forget that making the payoffs wasn't easy at all with 3 star pitchers due to our lousy hitting then. We had to play small ball like it was 1970 everyday. Yet, we have no speed to steal bases, which should be Everett's job since he can't hit and plays for defensive reasons only.

    Yes AE is one of many holes to cover up (I've been AE enemy #1 forever here), but he is the biggest hole we have by far, especially with Ausmus retiring, his lousy hitting will be magnified even more. If he's starting next year and we're losing again, i'll bet anyone money in the tip jar they'll be allot less people sticking up for him and the fans at games will even start turning on him, something very uncommon for Astros fans.
     
  2. MaxwellsTemper

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    Adam Everett bats #8 in the lineup, even if he was batting .300 the Astros would not be scoring many more runs. That is the bottom line.

    Bruntlett is not much better than Everett with the bat (if at all - he doesn't play everyday, so we don't know). But he is not on the same level as AE on defense - not even close. You need to take off your homer glasses if you think he is. He is a GREAT utility player, but please stop making him out to be something he is not. AE is the BEST defensive SS in baseball, Bruntlett is a bench player who is pretty good at defense. There is a huge difference, whether folks on here want to admit that, or know enough about baseball to recognize that.

    AE is going to be starting SS next year. Mark it down. Its absurd to think Bruntlett would start over him.
     
  3. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I'd rather lose 1-0 than give up 10+ runs in 3-4 straight games (like they did last week).

    People also forget that the offense WILL be (and has been) better than the 05-06 versions... if only because they have Berkman, Lee, Pence... and won't have as much of Biggio/Ausmus.
     
  4. redgoose

    redgoose Contributing Member

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    He wouldn't be batting # 8 in the lineup if he could hit .300, heck he doesn't even have an OBP of .300. And yes, it would lead to more runs batting before Berkman and Lee.

    Bruntelett is only a minor downgrade defensively from AE when you compare their range. He also has an OBP of over 90 points more. Nobody is saying we want Bruntlett as a permanent solution, but he would be an instant upgrade until we find someone better. The people that know baseball also know that it has changed over the years. Every team could have an Adam Everett of their own if they wanted, but the real world knows The Dead Ball Era has been over for a long time and you need more runs to score. And everybody needs to contribute to that.

    I think you may be correct. Drayton still wants to prove the Everett for Evrerett trade wasn't a complete wash on our side. However his average keeps getting worse every year to the point where pitchers bat better than him.

    Mark this down. The people will turn on AE next year. Fans will realize the one ball in 100 he saves isn't worth his crappy average. However, nobody in their right minds would trade away anything for him. He'll eventually be splitting time, then benched, then put on waivers to see if there's any takers.
     
  5. xishi

    xishi Member

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    where was all this adam everett talk in my AE thread???? hahaha. :D
     
  6. MaxwellsTemper

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    Bruntlett is not only a "minor" defensive downgrade to AE. That is a joke.
     
  7. MaxwellsTemper

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    My bad, that wasn't in response to your post xishi.
     
  8. MaxwellsTemper

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    I wish I could edit posts so I didn't have to TRIPLE post.. so sorry about that.

    But not "everyone" thinks you need to score runs to win games. Defense is important, like I said.. this isn't fantasy baseball. Defense up the middle is especially important. Getting a defensive hoover at 1B isn't the same as having a guy like that at SS. If we had a 1B who wasn't good at the plate but was amazing in the field, it would be a different story. SS is not a position that is considered essential for offense. If you get that.. great. But out of a SS defense is extremely important, particularly for a team like the Astros that rely on pitching/defense traditionally. If you are looking for a team that is trying to win 10-9 everynight, I think you should cheer for the Rangers.

    Like someone said, I'd rather lose 1-0 than give up 10 runs a night.
     
  9. redgoose

    redgoose Contributing Member

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    I was there posting my opinions many times and getting criticized every time by everyone. For some reason, more people are for a change now, even though it's only been a week. Wait until it's been anothe year! :eek:
     
  10. xishi

    xishi Member

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    im ready for a change. i wanna see bruntlett get some consistent pt at shortstop. everett can come off the bench.
     
  11. redgoose

    redgoose Contributing Member

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    At exactly what point will you say this guy's offensive bat is hurting us more than his defense is helping us? Seriously? Do you have a batting average line AE can't fall below? Exactly how many spectacular plays do you think he makes saving a hit compared to an average SS? Exactly how many runs do you think he saves per game? Finally, if a SS is able to help score more runs than he stops, in your opinion is he still less valuable than AE, since he's still the better defender? :confused:

    Also, since we don't have pitching, shouldn't we try to be hitting? After all, no matter what the score is, if i remember correctly the team with the most runs wins. You speak like AE saves us at least one run every game. Or week for that matter. I know sub par offensive players often get over looked for golden glove awards, but the way you speak of AE, he should have one for every year he's played. Ausmus is a sub par offensive player and even he's won a couple.

    Is there any SS you'd rather have than AE, and why? If you were to answer yes to anyone, than you would be admitting that a SS that can score more runs then he stops is an upgrade. The only problem is there's tons of them out there and they don't even have to be named Tejada, Jeter, Nomar, etc. :eek:
     
  12. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Where have you been the last 2 months when he's been there?

    You can't have it both ways... "Bruntlett is better now, but the team is bad because of the pitching....Everett is a good defensive player, but when he's in, there's no hitting."

    Clearly, this team needs more pitching REGARDLESS of who's playing SS. Clearly, this team needs Lance Berkman to be Lance, and a leadoff hitter who gets on base more than Biggio does to be a fully dangerous lineup REGARDLESS of who's playing SS.

    That leaves me with using defense to evaluate the SS position... and lookee there... I wonder who wins that battle.
     
  13. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    i love the whole condescending, "people who know baseball agree with me" crap. that's awesome. and by awesome i mean totally sweet.
     
  14. MaxwellsTemper

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    Actually, Adam Everett should have won the last two Gold Gloves, to answer that question.

    And Adam Everett is never seen making spectacular, diving plays. Reason being that he is so good he gets to tough balls without having to dive. He has very good instincts, and great positioning.. and makes tough plays look very routine. That is why he gets so little credit. He does his job without looking like Rey Ordonez, who always looked like he was making a spectacular play because he was out of position so much. Yes, there are other SSs out there that are pretty good - but we don't have one nor are we in position to get one.

    And I agree - Bruntlett has been playing for a while. Question - have we been winning ballgames???
     
  15. rterry

    rterry Contributing Member

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    A previous post said about 36M would bring the payroll to 120M. I don't think it would necessarily take this much to make us a contender, but let's suppose Uncle Drayton would go for it.

    We need only make one offensive upgrade and that is at catcher. Everette or Bruntlett can fight it out for SS, since either is an adequate no. 8 hitter. It is having so many sub par hitters that kills you. We have already upgraded at 3b, Berkman will bounce back, Loretta should be re-signed to start at 2b with Burke as competition. OF is above average with Lee, Pence, and Scott. With an offensive catcher, we would have a solid lineup 1-7 with Bruntlett and Everette adequate as no. 8's.
    If you could get Posada for 24M over 2 years that would be perfect. So let's say 12m for a catcher, leaving 24M for pitching. I would be alright with one ace and one middle of the pack guy, but you might need to settle on 2 middle of the pack guys. A catcher and 2 rotation pitchers in the off-season would make us contenders.
     
  16. Zac D

    Zac D Contributing Member

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    Two things.

    1.) Adam Everett-level defense is NOT as common as you make it out to be.

    2.) How many teams in the National League have hitters appreciably better than Everett at every spot in the lineup? (Hint: the number is low. Approximately, based solely on last night's box scores, two.) Everyone (except the New York Yankees, evidently) would love to have Alex Rodriguez at short, but the simple fact is that relatively few baseball players have the skill required to play shortstop defense at an acceptable level. Fewer still are also good with the bat. So when you find a player with exceptional defense and, let's face it, average bottom-of-the-order production, you put him in the lineup and get your better hitters at positions where it's easier to do so (and where poor defense hurts you less).
     
  17. Major

    Major Member

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    You're asking the wrong question here. The proper question is in relation to your other options on the team. If you have Derek Jeter as an alternative, Everett needs to produce a lot offensively to not be replaced. If you have Eric Bruntlett as your potential replacement, the bar is really low because Bruntlett is somewhere between a mediocre and bad hitter.

    Replacing AE just for the sake of it is pointless.
     
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    Don't think that's the case. Not sure what the payroll is today, but here's a look at what's coming off the books this offseason:

    Ausmus, $4M
    Bagwell, $7M
    Biggio, $5.15M
    Ensberg, $4.35M
    Jennings, $5.5M
    Lamb, $2.7M
    Lane, $1.05M
    Loretta, $2.5M
    Miller, $1.3M
    Palmeiro, $0.95M

    Total money expiring: $34.5M.

    A couple of guys will get raises in arb: Wiggington, Lidge, Qualls; Lee's contract bumps up a mil...so knock off a few million, let's say 3ish.

    So that leaves ~$31M to spend on (in my perceived order of import) SP, SP, C, CF/RF, 2B, RP, bench. And that only brings the payroll back up to it's present $87M range, and there's no reason it wouldn't climb a ~5+ mil if the situation dictates. We'll see what happens.
     
  19. rterry

    rterry Contributing Member

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    Great. I like your math better. If we have 50m to spend that's even easier to transform us into a contender. I do believe your ratings of our needs is correct, although I would probably put C either 1st or 2nd. I think a more reliable lineup with more consistent run production will help the pitching staff, even the one we have. I do think some of the struggles early in the season came from pitchers trying to be too fine, because they knew if they gave up 2 runs they were toast. A little relaxation can go along way with pitchers. That being said, after catcher, I would spend most my free agent money on pitchers, especially if we re-sign Loretta for 2b and Lamb for the bench.
     
  20. texanskan

    texanskan Contributing Member

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    You don't want to spend money for the sake of spending money.

    ok, lets spend some money on the bullpen and pray Lidge is 100% back and Qualls will get his head straight for an entire season.

    SP,

    Roy O
    Backe (pray he stays healthy and with a few starts in September and an entire offseason he is 100%)
    Patton (lets cross our fingers here)
    Sampson
    Woody/Wandy

    too many what if's but don't go out and get a guy for the sake of getting a player just if there is a reasonable deal to be had.

    lineup

    cf-Pence
    2b-Burke (he should bat 8th but we have AE)
    1b-Berkman
    Lf-Lee
    Rf-Scott
    3b-Wigginton
    c-Munson
    ss-AE
    pitcher

    lot of what ifs in that lineup and three to four guys who don't start on an elite team.

    Just think if it were the Yanks Lee could DH, Berkman would be at first and Pence would get time in the outfield nobody else would even be on the roster let alone starting

    This is time to rebuild our farm system so no crazy spending as we plug guys in while we can bring up younger better players over the next 3-4 years so as Berkman/Lee/Oswalt/Lidge all near the end of their contracts (assume Lidge gets one after next season) they can make another run.
     

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