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How much money and how many free agents do we need to win in 08?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by redgoose, Aug 3, 2007.

  1. redgoose

    redgoose Contributing Member

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    Not nearly every ball gets hit to the SS. Not every ball that could get past Loretta compared to Everett means the player is going to score a run. On average it would take an extra 2 hits to get that runner home. Since a ground ball past the SS is usually only a single. I'd rather have someone that could score and drive in more runs than someone who could possibly save 10 runs over the course of a season. I'm guessing on the saving 10 runs since that can't be proved.

    Exactly how many runs do you think Everett saves over a full season, not hits? Then compare that to how many runs Loretta could score and drive in. Which player makes the biggest difference? I'd go with Loretta.
     
    #21 redgoose, Aug 5, 2007
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2007
  2. redgoose

    redgoose Contributing Member

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    Very good info.

    I have no idea what Jennings would resign for, especially after what pitchers got last off season. He's been so up and mostly down this year, but has a decent track record in Colorado, eats up innings, and can almost always give you a chance to win for any team with a good offense. Which worries me he could get 10 million offered to him from a variety of teams. We definantly need another star starting pitcher get to and go anywhere in the playoffs. That's huge money especially when combined with resigning Jennings. The Astros rarely spend much money on the bullpen, and Lidge, in my arbitration estimates, will probably get 6 million no matter what, so he better be closing next year.

    I think it would be way easier to find an slugging 3B, CF (move Pence to RF), or RF player than a catcher. Signing an average hitting catcher is already an upgrade at that position offensive wise. We still need another big bat. I'd say 2 bats if we stick with Everett in the lineup.

    So your right, maybe not 150 million, but it will be the most expensive off season in Astros history if Drayton really wants to win. Since he decided no to have a fire sale, he needs to put his check book where is mouth is. If our lineup looks similiar to this year's, there is no hope.
     
  3. br0ken_shad0w

    br0ken_shad0w Member

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    Except Loretta can put in another position like 2B and be an upgrade while still keeping the good fielding of Everett. Everett is a 7-8 hitter and there are other positions that we need better production at than at shortstop.
     
  4. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    he's gotten regular AB's in intervals. he has about 425 career AB's.

    but the bottom line is it takes a lot more than eric bruntlett for me to want to remove the best defensive SS in the game from the lineup. i'd be looking other places to improve offense first...places where offense is more expected. like RF and 3B, for example.
     
  5. weslinder

    weslinder Contributing Member

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    Not a single MLB manager would agree with you. You just don't go from the best defensive shortstop in baseball to a converted second baseman that would be the worst defensive shortstop in baseball, especially if you have a bunch of groundball pitchers. The difference in hitting doesn't matter And yes, the difference in runs defensively between Everett and Loretta would far exceed the difference in runs offensively between them.
     
  6. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    I don't think GM's outside of Houston are all that enamored with Adam Everett.....

    Otherwise we would be seeing tons of teams playing defensive minded SS.....

    Unless Everett can hit .260+ I don't think he should be playing every day.

    DD
     
  7. MaxwellsTemper

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    Everett isn't going anywhere, and he'll be starting SS next year. Real baseball isn't fantasy baseball, you don't just plug in people with the highest OPS.

    Bruntlett is a great utility player to have around, and I love him and his versatility. But don't make him out to be something he's not either.
     
  8. Little_Scott

    Little_Scott Member

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    I don't understand where "on average it would take an extra 2 hits to get that runner home." What if the bases are juiced and Everett gets to a ball that Loretta doesn't? What if Everett makes a play that Loretta can't and turns a double play out of it (i.e. 2005 NLCS Game 4).
     
  9. Refman

    Refman Contributing Member

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    The problem is that Everett is a gaping hole in the offense. You simply aren't going to sign a premium SS in the offseason. You are likely going to have to resolve this from within. Bruntlett is the best option we currently have.

    I still maintain, after looking at the ESPN game logs, that Luke Scott could be a reasonable answer at RF.
     
  10. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    He should be playing every single day.......Jason Lane....should be released.

    DD
     
  11. Akhorahil

    Akhorahil Member

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    I like the middle ground approach when it comes to SS. I'm not looking for a power hitter like some of these AL teams, rather more of a doubles type hitter with above average defensive skills. Is that Bruntlett? I don't know, it could be.

    RedGoose, here's a list of 3rd basemen who can be FA this year. Now there maybe alot of guys there. But alot of those guys are going to resign with their teams. The ones that won't/might not I wouldn't consider them an upgrade over Ty. I mean, besides ARod. Next year's 3rd basemen market is much worse. Basically because alot of the "good" players in that market are probably going to resign with their teams. Which would make Ensberg one of the best 3rd basemen FA that year. When Ty becomes a FA, so will Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera, Melvin Mora, and Freddy Sanchez. I doubt any of those guys will be returning to their prior teams.

    I told a buddy of mine on another site, who actually led me here, about this. We figured the only way to upgrade over Ensberg anytime soon was via trade. What was it Dom? 2-3 weeks later they made the Wheeler/Ty trade?

    So we are back to square one. The only way I see them upgraded at 3rd in the next 2 seasons is via trade.

    The catcher market is a pretty good market this year and even next year.
    Now RF... very different story. You got tons of options.
     
  12. DOMINATOR

    DOMINATOR Member

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    yeah but i always felt ensberg should have been 3rd-4th part to upgrade considering his OBP... i thought they should have upgraded catcher first considering ausmus is close to retirement. i think they should call up JR. Towles right now releasing palmeiro so they have an idea of what to expect from him and if they could go a year with a band-aid or look into a long term catcher.
    then starting pitching since its obvious no one is solid outside of Roy. figure the bullpen will be fine with Nieve taking over as setup man or 7th inning. then 3rd base/RF.
    i think the Ty trade was to show the fans they were doing something to upgrade yet its not even that much better especially when you have a better player already on the roster, lamb... it's another band-aid and the organization are trying to pass it off as something more than what it is. fans aren't idiots and see right through it.

    i think the most frustrating thing with the astros is they have no direction and no plan. if JR Towles, Patton, Gutierrez/estrada arent called up in september im going to be disappointed and just more fuel to the fire purpura debate.
     
  13. Hammer755

    Hammer755 Contributing Member

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    I agree 100% about Scott and for the large part about Everett. There comes a time when being the best defensive SS in the game does not outweigh how bad his offense truly is. However, I still say that Bruntlett is that much better than Everett with the bat, and certainly not good enough to make the downgrade in defense

    And I think we do have enough information about Bruntlett to know what kind of player he is. In 2000+ minor league AB, Bruntlett posted right around a 0.700 OPS. In 400+ major league AB, he's posted right around a 0.700 OPS. Those kind of guys shouldn't be in major league lineups without some kind of extenuating circumstances, such as a plus glove or trying to develop a young player. Bruntlett falls under neither of these categories.
     
  14. Hammer755

    Hammer755 Contributing Member

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    That first sentence should have read that Bruntlett is not that much better than Everett with the bat, and certainly not good enough to make the downgrade in defense.
     
  15. Akhorahil

    Akhorahil Member

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    You remember when I said I think Ausmus might just be coming back next year, if he doesn't retire? Towles is why. The reason I say that is if you sign a FA catcher for more than 2 seasons, which is what any of these big FA catchers are going to require, Towles is going to be held back a bit. Or worse... traded. The reason I posted the needs that way was because of the way the thead was titled. Win now philosophy.

    I'm sure Towles is probably ready, hitting wise, to be called up now. But is his work behind the plate ready? that's the question. You've been following him much closer than I have. So you would know better than me. But even if you think he's ready I'll still leave that up to coaches. I don't like to count on minor league players, I don't care how much hype is behind them.

    Just so you know. Gutierrez and Estrada are both on the 40 man roster. So the odds that they get called up in September are good. Patton and Towles are question marks. It all depends on what is going on. Remember Backe is coming back and I'm sure they will call him up before Patton. If all goes well. More than likely they will get ST invites and get called up next season rather than this one. Of course that's been my stance all year. lol
     
  16. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    The difference between Bruntlett and Everett at the plate over the course of their careers is teensy tiny.

    But let's assume the best for Bruntlett. Let's say he's a .280 hitter from here on out. And let's assume Everett is a .250 hitter from here on out. That's 3 extra hits from Bruntlett in 100 AB's. Again...you have to do better than Eric Bruntlett to replace arguably the best defensive SS in the game. At virtually any other position, I wouldn't mind. But not at SS.
     
  17. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    hold up - bruntlett is getting on base at a .380 clip compared to everett's .290. and over the course of their careers, bruntlett's OPS is nearly 60 points higher.

    i'm not sure what amounts to roughly half a season is enough evidence to suggest bruntlett should displace him, but let's also not slight how large the offensive gap is between them. this year, it's sizeable.
     
  18. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    You just can't look at it strictly by batting average, having a .280 hitter at SS is miles better than a .250 hitter....much more of a threat....
    What are their respective OPS numbers?

    AE is at .591 this year

    Bruntlett is at .686 for the year

    But even if we assume you are 100% correct, I don't think many would be complaining if AE hit .250+.....but he isn't. He is hitting .228 for the year. After struggling mightily last year too.

    The team gave up on Ensberg for similar numbers even though Mo hit .319 in July , it may be time to do the same with AE.

    DD
     
    #38 DaDakota, Aug 6, 2007
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2007
  19. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    I agree with Max, Bruntlett is no more than a lateral move from AE at best, and possibly is worse. He's got no power and I don't believe can keep up the on-base numbers he's got so far. His defense at short is more than adequate, but I don't think his modest expected offensive performance makes him a clear improvement at the position over a defensive wiz like Ev. I think there are plenty of better SS's in the league, but Bruntlett doesn't strike me as one of them.
     
  20. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    Ensberg is a 3B...not a spectacular one in the field. it's not comparable. more is expected at the plate from a corner infielder than a SS.
     

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