Way to go Vikings! They double the draft love if they lose to Detroit and take two 5 win teams to 6! CAR - locked as top pick Broncos (hosting SD) - possible win to go to 5 wins Bills (@Jets) - probable loss to stay at 4 wins Bengals (@BAL) - probable loss to stay at 4 wins Cowboys (@Phi) - might win since Philly is locked in and should rest Vick. Browns (hosting Steelers) - probable loss as Pit is jockeying for homefield Lions / Vikings Sun, Vikes already at 6, need the Lions to win Cards/49ers - one must go to six wins, one stays at 5 Seahawks (hosting Rams) - expected loss to stay at 6 wins Titans (@ Indy) - have completely quit, almost certain to stay at 6 wins Redskins (hosting Giants) - probable loss to stay at 6 wins SO...... If Houston royally screws us over with a win and 6 wins, Optimistic Case: 6 teams with 5 wins or less (Car, Den, Buf, Cin, Cle, SF or Ari) 5 or 6 way tie at 6 wins (Dal, Det, Min, SF or Ari, Sea, Ten, Was) Likely pick #12 (move up one or two if there are upsets: Sea or Was) Worst Case: 8 teams with 5 or less (Car, Den, Buf, Cin, Cle, SF or Ari, Dal, Det) 4 way tie at 6 wins (SF or Ari, Sea, Ten, Was) Likely pick #13 If Houston mails it in and gives Jacksonville the win, Hopeful Case: Denver wins and 3 teams with 4 wins or less (Car, Buf, Cin) Det and Dal win and Texans tied with 3 other 5-win teams (Den, Cle, SF or Ari) Likely #6 pick Worst Case: Denver, Dal, Det lose 4 teams with 4 wins or less (Car, Buf, Cin, Den) Texans tied with 3 other teams for 5 wins (SF or Ari, Det, Dal) Likely #7 pick Someone else may know more than I do.....but I don't see any scenarios (without a ridiculous slew of upsets) where we're "a lock" for a top 5 pick. Please correct me if I'm wrong; I'd love to be in this case. SoS tiebreakers as they stand right now *should be* Texans "win" (better draft pick) Buffalo Cincy Detroit Cleveland Too close to call Minnesota Texans "lose" Denver Arizona San Fran Dallas Seattle Tennessee Washington Root hard for: Jags, Lions, Cowboys
Our critical games, and initial lines: Jags@HOU JAX(-2.5) Chargers@DEN SD(-3.5) Cowboys@PHI PHI(-7) Vikings@DET DET(-3) Bills@NYJ NYJ(-2) Bengals@BAL BAL(-9.5) Steelers@CLE PIT(-6) Rams@SEA STL(-3) Titans@IND IND(-9.5) Giants@WAS NYG(-4) I suspect the Det and Phi lines will move after last night, especially if Phi sits starters (Vick was pretty banged up) since they are locked as the #3 seed.
Ugh. So basically, almost every team we need to win is a big underdog going against playoff caliber opponents that have some reason to win.
Yep. If we lose, we *should* pick #6 or #7 If Kubiak craps on us right before McNair craps on us announcing that Right-Track-Kubiak is going to stay...we'll probably pick #12 or #13
Just announced that David Garrard isn't playing this Sunday. The Texans chances of screwing us just went up even more.
That scenario is only if we want to move up the #2 pick otherwise we can just lock up the 6 pick with a Lions and Cowboys win. It's that simple but if for some reason Broncos, Bills, Bengals, and 49ers were to win than we would leap them and get that coveted #2 spot. Anyways Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara are both attainable at #6 depending on who takes a QB right after Carolina takes Luck. if Mallet or Newton slip into the top 5 where Buffalo, Cincy, or SanFran might be looking for a QB then we have a pretty good shot at one of those two corners. For example let's mock the draft and Texans have 6th pick. 1) Carolina - Andrew Luck Luck is the obvious choice here. 2) Denver - Da'Quan Bowers Broncos need a pass rusher more than anything. 3) Buffalo - Nick Fairley Bills going to look for a stud d-lineman. 4) Cincinatti - AJ Green Ocho Cinco and Owens are gone next season, if they keep Palmer then look for a stellar wide receiver taken in the draft. 5) San Francisco - Cam Newton Mr and Mrs. Smith won't cut it anymore. Newton's stock has soared the last month or so and a terrific combine could propel him into the top 5. 6) Houston - ???
If Prince and Peterson were both still on the board at #6, that'd be remarkable. I haven't seen a mock yet that didn't have one or both of them gone by then. All I know is, I want to walk out of the first with one of them or Fairely/Paea. If we can't grab one of them, trade down and try to get an additional second if at all possible. Grab a DT and trade for Bailey. Grab a CB and swing the fences for a NT.
If we can get the number 6 pick, Denver is the only real threat to Patrick Peterson in my eyes. If Champ Bailey goes there going to be looking for a replacement. If he stays Peterson gets an excellent tutor to learn from for when Champ does leave. I just have a sinking feeling in my stomach though that were going to win this Sunday.
looks like mjd wont be playing either HTML: http://andy-benoit.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22475988/26720329
0% chance of this happening but can you imagine A.J Green across Andre? Our offense would be taken to another level with a legit #2, especially under the tutorship of Andre.
Jacksonville can make the playoffs if they win and Indy loses. It's not by choice that these guys aren't playing.
And Tim Tebow wasn't suppose to be taken in the 1st round. You never know dude, especially with a new regime coming in and the National Championship still to be played.
Although, I agree with you that Peterson and Amukamara should be top 5 picks, I still think one or both could slip because of the way the draft usually plays out. This year's draft is loaded with highly talented defensive linemen available in the top 10. In terms of the way defenses are designed theses days, Fairley, Bowers, Quinn are more attractive to struggling defense than a corner. Pass rushers are usually given the premium over corners in the draft, . Look at some of the best prospects at corner in the last 10 years, Champ Bailey went 7th overall in 1999 even though he was a "can't miss prospect" who had a tremendous combine with a 4.28 in the 40 and a 3.79 in the 20-yard shuttle. Those are still top 3 records in each category to this day. Also only two CBs were taken in the top 5 in past decade, Quentin Jammer and Terence Newman, neither became a shutdown corner. Right now, the only team with a legit need for a CB is Denver but then their defense is dead last in the league with only 18 sacks. Without Dumervil who has been injured, they have no pass rush at all. So I fully expect the next coach to address this in the upcoming draft with Da'Quan Bowers. Finally, I love the idea of taking Fairley who to me seems like the better long term pick. We need to control the line as much as we need to play better coverage. A corner helps improve the secondary tremendously but you put Fairley and Mario on the same line and that would wreak havoc on offenses. Fairley looks like Suh II and passing on a guy like that is unforgivable to me. But Fairley won't slip beyond the Bills who have a terrible D-line which cannot rush Tom Brady who often time takes 6-8 second jogs in the pocket before making the pass.
Man, if we did get the 6th pick, that is prime position to get leap frog by a team that wants those CBs badly enough. The 4th and 5th picks are easier to attain by just giving up all your early round picks like the Jets did to get Sanchez.
