Spoiler [rQUOTEr]There are 128 teams that play at the highest level of college football, and they all start the season undefeated. But the harsh reality is that only 11 have a legitimate chance to win the 2016 College Football Playoff. In the fifth installment of an 11-part series, we take a look at another of the few teams that could actually win the CFP: the Houston Cougars. Head coach Tom Herman's club plays in the American Athletic Conference, is tied for next to last in that conference in returning starters, and has an incredibly difficult early-season matchup against the Oklahoma Sooners. Does that mean Houston can't make the CFP? No, far from it: The Cougars have the goods to win the national title. Here's why. Ground power Last year, Greg Ward, Jr. had more rushing touchdowns than Dalvin Cook (21 for Ward, 19 for Cook), more 20-yard rushing plays than Ezekiel Elliott, and ranked fourth nationally in percentage of rush plays that gained 5 or more yards among ball carriers with 150 or more carries (51.4 percent). That he did this despite missing most of the games against Memphis and Connecticut indicates that Ward could end up as the most prolific rushing quarterback in college football in 2016 if he stays healthy for the entire campaign. Former ESPN 300 recruit Duke Catalon is an impact transfer from Texas who is in line to take over as the workhorse ball carrier. Catalon's recruiting report indicates he is a decisive, shifty rusher with good vision, a combination of skills that makes him a perfect fit for Herman's zone rushing system. Elite passing attack Herman's system is nearly as impactful through the air, as Ward ranked ninth nationally in completion percentage (67.2) tied for 12th nationally in Total QBR (80.3) and tied for 18th in vertical Total QBR (92.6 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Houston did lose its top wide receiver, Demarcus Ayers, to early declaration for the NFL draft, but 69 of his 98 receptions last year were of the short pass variety (thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) and thus should be replaceable. Maybe more importantly, the Cougars also bring back Chance Allen. Last season, Allen led the team in targets (25), receptions (10), receiving yards (355) and touchdowns (4) at the stretch vertical depth level (defined as passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield). Add his downfield production to Houston's two other returning wide receivers who racked up 25 or more receptions last year (Steven Dunbar and Linell Bonner), and Ward won't lack for talented, experienced pass-catchers this season. The offensive line should be even better Houston ranked 10th in the nation in points per game (40.4) last year, despite having four freshman offensive linemen who racked up more than 2,100 combined offensive snaps. That experience should make this group even better in 2016. Will Noble could end up contending for All-American consideration, as he made the ESPN.com 2015 true freshman All-American team last season in part due to grading out as the best Houston offensive lineman, according to the Cougars coaching staff. The big question mark here will be at the bookends, as Houston loses both of its senior starting offensive tackles from last season. Impact help does look to be on the way in this area via the JUCO recruiting trail, as the Cougars landed ESPN JC50 four-star offensive tackle Na'Ty Rodgers. He was the seventh-highest-rated JUCO player and fourth-highest-rated offensive lineman in this class and has been touted as a "plug-play option" for the Cougars. Unprecedented recruiting coup will help the defense Herman parlayed strong interpersonal relationships and earned his rep as one of the best recruiters in college football by signing five-star defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Oliver is the first five-star recruit to sign with a non-Power 5 conference team since ESPN began ranking recruits in 2006, and should be able to provide immediate production for a Houston defense that lost six starters from last year's squad. Even with those personnel losses, the Cougars do bring back four of their top six tackles-for-loss defensive players, and 23 of their 36 sacks from last season. Add that to the potential for increased impact play volume from defensive lineman Nick Thurman, who had five tackles for loss despite being on the field for only 46.9 percent of Houston's defensive snaps, and cornerback Howard Wilson (four picks over the past two years despite playing only 21.3 percent of defensive snaps in that time frame), and the Cougars may be in solid shape on this side of the ball. Lots of special-teams upside Houston ranked 29th in the nation last season in ESPN Stats & Information's special teams expected points added (STEPA) metric, a statistic that measures the scoreboard impact of special-teams plays using an expected point framework. The Cougars' 17.0 mark here indicates this platoon added just over a point per game to Houston's bottom line. The Cougars did this despite kicker Kyle Bullard's early-season struggles (5-for-9 in field goal attempts). Ty Cummings, who returns for his senior season, replaced Bullard in the fifth game last year and made all of his field goals (8-for-8) and extra points (51-for-51). Add that level of play to Brandon Wilson, who led the American conference in kickoff return touchdowns (two) and ranked fourth in kickoff return average (26.6), and the Cougars should once again field an upper-tier special-teams unit in 2016. The schedule is perfect/not good Houston has one of the easiest schedules in college football this year. That would bode well for an undefeated campaign, which would probably be necessary for the Cougars to make the College Football Playoff, but it would also hurt Houston's chances of winning over the playoff committee in the event the group is looking for a tiebreaking element. The key to the whole year: Beating Oklahoma in the aforementioned season opener is a must. Fortunately for the Cougars, the Sooners showed a penchant for getting into shootouts last year by giving up 24 or more points on eight occasions. Oklahoma was 6-2 in those contests, which means if Houston can turn this into a fast-paced battle, it could be enough to vault the Cougars to this all-important win. Bottom line The Cougars ranked 11th in Mark Schlabach's most recent Way-Too-Early-Top 25. With that as a barometer for their 2016 ranking starting point, if the Cougars run the table, it should move them high enough in the rankings to convince the College Football Playoff committee that their postseason time has arrived. Once there, Houston can follow the lead of last season's playoff clubs and use fast-paced football as a path to playoff victories.[/rQUOTEr]
Trust me, I want Herman to stay, he's one of the best coaches (possibly the best) in the country. The man has created a fantastic culture and brought UH back to glory. However, when he's asked if he's leaving, he never gives a concrete "no". It may not be for a few more years, but once schools like Texas and Alabama, or hell, even the NFL start pursuing him, it's over. I sure do hope I'm wrong.
Alabama is spoken for and the Texas job is toxic due to incompetence within the school. I think a "perfect" job could come along and lure Herman away, but it's certainly not inevitable.
This. Herman has a really strong dislike for politics and boosters that have control over football decisions. Until a job is offered, no one knows what Herman will do...... but the UT job as it currently is, does not strike me as an ideal situation for Herman.
I worry about Urban Meyer needing another "break" from coaching. Herman would be all over an Ohio St offer.
If CTH has another top 10 finish with a big bowl win you have to believe Houston will have to redo his contract again to keep him because the schools with DEEP pockets and big name jobs will be itching for a positive spin on their under performing program. He may not go because of politics but I'm sure fair market value is still in his mind. With back to back top 10 finishes under his belt, increased season ticket sales, growing recruiting base, more national exposure, the board would be forced to give him another bump to keep him happy and keep the other good programs away. No doubt if his dream job comes with more money then he'll be gone, but nobody can say for sure what those parameters are for him. Mark my words the rumors will start heating up if UH beats OU in the 1st game of the season and will only grow with each UH victory and every major school's defeat around the football landscape.
So we should hope for failure because success would mean the possible loss of our coach . . . I see a few flaws in your logic, to say the least.
No I not saying hope for failure... It is not that hard to understand. Some posters think there is no way he is staying here, some think he'll never leave because he wants total control that UH is giving him. I middle of the road. I think he stays until dream job comes along, and I'm saying if UH were to upset OU the talk will start that very week at under preforming programs. That may not be going out on skinny limb but it is my stance. What flaws? No need to be a typical BB pain. Thanks for all the hate... Go Coogs.
