They may not be able to get an ace, although I would hope that a package built around Martes, Musgrove, Fisher, and Paulino would be able to get somebody like Archer. Adding Reddick would really lengthen the lineup: CF Springer LF Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa RF Reddick 3B Gurriel 1B Reed/Marwin C Gattis/Castro DH White/Tucker
Good points all the way around. Catcher is by far the biggest hole on this team when you consider that Castro will be a free agent and our farm system lacks any upper tier catching prospects. While we have other holes, in most cases we have multiple high level prospects ready to prove themselves in those spots. Also, we have PLENTY of money to spend. Rasmus, Gomez, Fister, Valbuena, and potentially Neshek are set to fall off the roster. That's about $44 million combined off our already low #24 payroll in baseball. In my ideal world, here is what you do this offseason: 1) Sign Wilson Ramos to a big 5 year deal. 5 Years $125 million. 2) Sign Gurriel's brother. #3 overall international prospect. Essentially makes up for the pick you lost signing Ramos. 3) Resign Fister to a 2 year $25 million deal. 4) Renegotiate and extend Altuve. I know he's signed for 3 more years at a dirt cheap salary, but it's just the right thing to do. I think the clubhouse will be better for it, and you can tack on more years of control with the extra leverage (his current salary). Maybe something like a 6 year $100 million deal. That would allow him to make $50 million over the next 3 years ($33 million more than he's currently due), and then get paid around his market value in the latter 3 years (~$17 million per). Even after all of that, you only have an average payroll and the farm system is still loaded. RF - Springer LF - Bregman 2B - Altuve SS - Correa C - Ramos 3B - Gurriel 1B - Reed/White DH - Reed/White/Kemp CF - Marisnick/Kemp Utility: Marwin, Gattis SP - Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Fister, Musgrove, Fiers RP - Feliz, Devenski, Sipp, Gregerson, Harris, Giles, Hoyt
Except, he had a .313 OB% the year before his .290. I understand the bar is remarkably low in Houston, but .330 isn't by any means special, and, frankly, probably not good enough to move the bar on this team (at least by itself). They need at least two guys that get on base at a .345-.350+ rate. Minimum. If those two guys turn out to be Bregman and Gurriel, and they want to add Desmond at a decent price? Sure. OK, I guess - although, again, this year is reversing two years of subpar play.
Reddick would have not pick cost attached. Good choice to replace Rasmus (who I would consider bringing back, but only as a 4th OF, not a starter).
Maybe I am just in a cynical mood, but I have a hard time getting a grip on our future when I am unsure what Crane & Co. are going to be willing to do. Perhaps the aftermath of the trade deadline has skewed my view, but I am finding myself in more doubt than ever that this club will spend when the time and situation are right. A great farm isnt going to propel us anywhere if the brass is intent in keeping us in the bottom 3rd in spending. I will be as happy as anyone to proved wrong about this.
The Astros under Luhnow have spent their limit on the Rule 4 drafts, Brady Aiken aside. The Astros have spent their limit in IFA, except this year where they have gone way over the limit. At the 2015 in-season trade deadline, the Astros overspent in trades to get veterans for their playoff run. This year, the Astros passed on trade deadline trades but did sign El Yuli to a fairly substantial contract. The Astros have stayed away from signing elite FAs in the off season, but I can see them not wanting to pay in years and money for the next "Albert Pujols".
We need to, at the very least, stop perpetuating this idea that spending = success. I couldn't care less how much they spend; I want them to upgrade their roster - *that* the goal. Granted, better players generally cost more; I get the correlation. But Fister didn't cost an arm and a leg, and he's been a very good addition. Rasmus, otoh, DID cost an arm and a leg, and he's been a titanic bust. You can lump Gomez into that, too. Sipp, as well. If Bregman, Gurriel and Reed all live up to the hype/potential and we get a full year of them + Altuve/Correa/Springer, that's a perfectly acceptable course of action to take.
I'm a big fan of Archer and posted several times that he was the one guy I wanted us to really go after at the deadline I'm also tired of hearing about prospects prospects prospects prospects...before the massive rebuild, prospects were just seen as a supplemental part of the Major League Team, now around here we seem to value them as much or more than major league talent Having said all of that, there is NO WAY I would give up all 4 of those guys for Archer, I better be getting another major league piece back with him and a reliable one at that
I realize perception is not fact, but my perception is that we have a tendency to try to avoid making bad contracts. On the face of it, that seem quite reasonable. But on the other hand, its sorta like playing not to lose, rather than playing to win.
I hear what you are saying, but at some point we have to realize that the players available with a longer track record of success, and a higher likelyhood of being successful moving forward, have to be paid for. Yes, you can pull a Fister out of the group sometimes. I'm not one that complains about a small payroll often at all. But it's time to quit making everything about prospects prospects prospects development development development....and bring in some major league talent to supplement the mlb roster
Again, my only wish is for them to upgrade the roster - however they accomplish that, I don't really care. Signings, trades, promotions... I just want to cut the narrative that spending is the only way to succeed. No one here would be excusing the Astros if they were being dragged down by Heyward and the $184 MM he's owed to post a lower OPS than Jason Castro.
They have one of the lower payrolls in baseball. If they paid more maybe andrew miller would have come here. I know he didn't want to, but if you paid him enough he might have. If were willing to spend more we got have got chapman after he was caught beating his wife.
I'd love Archer, but I'm not dealing all 3 of those pitchers. I agree it would take one hell of an offer to get him, but I'd rather gamble that at least one of those guys pan out.
I'm not all that in to spending big on free agents; my main desire as a fan is for the front office to be proactive. Running down Houston's roster shows for the most part they have been: C They spent good prospects to acquire Gattis and Castro was a 1st rd pick and 1 time all star 1B Reed is the top 1B prospect in baseball so it's perfectly reasonable for them to commit to him 2B Altuve is on a HoF track SS Correa is former #1 overall pick 3B They went and spent $50M on Gurriel RF Springer is a high performing former 1st rd pick CF This along with DH (and maybe catcher) are the areas they don't have a clear answer LF Bregman is the #1 overall prospect in baseball; again, perfectly reasonable for them to commit to him. SP Obiously Keuchel, McCullers, and McHugh are in. With Musgrove's pedigree it's totally reasonable for them to give him a shot. Fiers is a bit of a question mark. RP the bullpen is fine with proven guys like Giles, Gregerson, and Harris. Could always add more but hard to argue they haven't been proactive here. So I'm very disappointed they didn't make Lucroy happen, but as long as they go out and address OF/DH and/or catcher in a meaningful way this offseason I will be more than happy.
I agree I just hope that spending a little more doesn't keep them from making upgrades I could care less what the final number of the payroll is
What is this mess I am hearing through the rumor mills about A-Rod potentially coming to Houston to DH this season. Buster Onley was the one who brought this up last night.
Lucroy not happening really is a head-scratcher. He's exactly what they look for in trades - young, cheap and club-controlled. He was being dealt by Luhnow's former protegee who had an intimate knowledge of the Astros' system. It would've seemed like an easy match. Was Stearns maybe reluctant to do another deal and be seen as a Luhnow lackey? He wanted to put his own stamp on the Rangers and, thus, drove a high bargain with the Astros? I mean, there's *no way* the Astros weren't interested in Lucory, right?
It's not a rumor; he was wildly, senselessly speculating on possible landing spots and mentioned Houston. As bad as our DH prodcution has been this year, it's actually been better than ARod's. There is a negative-zero % chance they'll bring in ARod. They have ot figure what they have with Bregman, Gurriel and Reed, Marisnick, too. And Kemp.
I want to specifically address this. Lucroy has a team option for next season, and then will be a free agent. The Rangers traded the equivalent of AJ Reed and Francis Martes for Lucroy and a bullpen arm. Let's say Lucroy walks next offseason. Would you have been comfortable losing Reed and Martes for a season and half of Lucroy and relief pitcher? This was not the same as trading for Ken Giles, who the Astros can control for another 4-5 years. The Lucroy trade was very similar to the Gomez trade. Both had trades fall through (though for different reasons), and another team stepped in with prospects. In both trades, the Rangers and Astros got back another complimentary player (Fiers). The Rangers, like the Astros last year, believed they were just a piece or two away from contention. This time, the Astros decided they weren't ready. They decided not to repeat the Gomez trade. Between the Valbuena injury, Correa taking a small step back, and relying on too many rookies to give us veteran production....adding Lucroy just wasn't going to be enough to justify the cost. That is why signing Ramos makes a lot more sense to me. You can sign him to a long term deal, then give a QO to Castro and it's essentially like trading from the middle of the 1st round to the back of the first.
Great point. I think that's an important distinction to make. Jonathan Lucroy is going to be a great, cheap catcher for the next 1.5 seasons. After that, he hits free agency. With the way that the Rangers are constructed, it makes sense that they feel their window is this year and the next. They paid a lot for Lucroy and Jeffress, and reports I read said that the player to be named later will also be a big time prospect. If that is the case, I am ok with the deal. If it's a lower-end prospect, I think the Rangers got great value. I just hope the player to be named later is a big time prospect, and all three pan out to be good-to-great ballplayers, and that the deal ends up hurting them in the grand scheme of things.
