If you think Hollinger oversold Landry's interior defense, it's nothing compared to the praise for his perimeter defense. Carl "checks" perimeter guys about as well as Amare Stoudemire does, which is to say it almost never happens. In fact, Landry's overall game resembles Amare's much more than Kleiza's. Like Amare, Carl has a solid midrange shot and is a great finisher while having zero post game. They're both poor defenders and rarely pass. Kleiza relies much more on his perimeter shot and actually has the handles to play SF part time, even if it's not his ideal position. Ryan Gomes and Kleiza are real tweeners and neither of their teams want them playing SF primarily. Landry is purely an undersized PF. He has no other position.
Its minutes adjusted so whether you play 10 or 40, if your rate of production is the same, your PER will be the same. Still you make some sound points, PER is a tool, and one thing that Ive monitored over the years is how usage heavy it is. So yes some of our players may actually improve by default just from having more touches, but its not a night and day difference, if those players should improve their PER without a sudden less in per possession efficiency, I take that as a sign of legitimate improvement. So in many ways PER will tell alot about whether this season is a success from an individual standpoint. As for the jumps your projecting I really dont think night and day jumps like Battier returning to 15 or several Rockets being near All-Star caliber players happen very frequently even as a result of more touches. PER does a very good job of balancing out the usage vs efficiency aspect, when used in conjunction with efficiency stats can be very accurate measurements of a players ability outside of defense.
That said, I disagree with several of the computers (Not Hollingers) projections. Tmac played on 1 leg last year, the CPU doesnt know that. He should play much better this year. Brooks can improve to high 17's not only because the pace of the game will better suit his skillset but because hes getting better. Ariza Im not sure about, hes the guy who will probably see the biggest leap in his usage, that should help his PER by default but if he doesnt stay an efficient player it wont mean much. Scola is who he is, the 20-10 projections Ive seen from a few posters are absurd, if he were that good we would have seen it by now. I expect the same from Scola as I did last year, maybe a slight uptick because hes in his prime but nothing severe.
Yao may or may not hold down a motion offense. It doesn't matter. What does matter is the only thing that prevented motion offense teams from winning a title over the past 20yrs has been their lack of a true big man...
Ah, well, see Mr. Buttocks..... ....that's the thing with these way-out wild internet fan forums. Hollinger's guessing, just like I am. And just like everybody else here is about just about everything. Gotta love it. And from the beginning, I said that, if Carl Landry has a future beyond an energy player off the bench, for me that future lies in becoming a small forward. You hit the nail right on the head with Amare Stoudemire, Mr. Buttocks. He's a blown-up small forward. He's played like one since he entered the league. The biggest reason why the Phoenix Suns didn't have the type of success that they were expected to have (i.e. winning a championship), was because Stoudemire didn't play like a big man for that team. Stoudemire didn't defend anybody anywhere at any time. In the paint or on the perimeter. Shawn Marion was a better low post defender for the Suns than Stoudemire was. And what's worse, Stoudemire shows no inclination toward becoming anything close to a decent defender. Individual defender or team defender. But again, if Landry has any intentions of being more than a bit player, Mr. Buttocks, he's going to have to turn around and face out on both ends of the court. Landry could make the transition to a small forward because he's such a good athlete. It would take an extraordinary amount of work on his part....not to mention changing his mindset a bit about how he plays the game. Stoudemire can get away with some of the things that Landry can't because he's bigger than Landry. You know what's rarer than a Michael Jordan-type player, MrButtocks? A Charles Barkley-like player. Barkley was all of 6' and 4". He weighed, at his best, about 250 lbs. And Barkley was a tremendous athletic specimen. He cowered men twice his height. When he was at his best, Sir Charles owned the paint. I don't see that for Carl Landry. He's not going to get any taller. He doesn't score anywhere near as well as a post player as he does a face-up player. I can see more of a Linus Kleiza in Landry's future, if he were to work at it, MrButtocks. Kleiza took a few seasons, but he learned, after playing in the post in college, that he wasn't going to have the type of individual success he wanted if he didn't change his game and face the basket. Most of us think of a small forward in the league modeling Scottie Pippen. Pippen's been called the prototype small forward on more than one occasion. Actually, Pippen could play anywhere. And he usually did for the Chicago Bulls. But what small forwards are supposed to be are what Lebron James is. And what James Worthy was. A guy you didn't want to be on the wrong end of a dunk shot with. A guy that was lethal offensively attacking the basket in the half-court form 18-feet and in. A guy who brought rain whenever he ran and finished on the break. It's not my call, of course, MrButtocks. But if it was, I'd see what i could do about getting Landry thinking big about playing small. Again, to me, physically, Landry has the tools for that. And, while I'm sure you're a nice guy and everything.... ...I hope we don't have too many conversations like this. I haven't said (or typed) "Buttocks" this much in my life.....it's a little uncomfortable.....
What a compliment, motionsiknes! I didn't know you cared...! I have to admit to being impartial to intelligent conversation, as opposed to name-calling and potty-mouth parties.... I'm curious...what have I said that you don't agree with? I'd like to know how the other half lives....(lol)!
It would take more than changing his mindset, it would take a complete transformation of his skillset. Landry plays like hardly any SF in the league. The closest perimeter player he compares to is Ronnie Brewer with his strong slashing to the basket. It takes much more than athleticism to play the SF position. Would you suggest Hakim Warrick or Brandon Bass make the same transition just because they're good athletes? Bass has a much better midrange shot than Landry and no one sees him as anything other than an undersized PF. I wouldn't say Kleiza has had that much more individual success than Landry. In fact, I think Landry's already a better player. Last year Denver actually played Kleiza more as an undersized PF than they did at SF. Had he not gone to Greece, I think that trend would have continued even further. Most SF/PF tweeners eventually make the full-time transition to PF because their already questionable perimeter defense gets even worse as the years go by. Nowitski and Jamison initially spent time as small fowards. They're both still defensive liabilities as power forwards, but couldn't even dream of guarding other small forwards at this point. You think Landry has trouble guarding Duncan? Imagine him, or even Linas Kleiza, trying to guard the guy you said SF's should be: Lebron James. It'd be a massacre. Why not? Did I offend you with something I said?
Well, that's why I said that it would take an extraordinary amount of work for Carl Landry to make the transition, in my opinion in the first place. And no matter how much work Landry put in (which would involve changing his skillset to a large degree, you're right), it would not change the fact that Landry is a "tweener". I never said he would be an ideal small forward. Only that he could be just as productive at either position. We think of ball handling and passing and perimeter shooting (skillsets of guards) when we talk about small forwards in the NBA, by and large. But slashers and attacking players are what small forwards are. They usually fill up stat sheets with their energy and effort. I watched Carl Landry against the Spurs, and he looked like a small forward to me on offense. He would get the ball, and no matter who was guarding him (usually a bigger player), he would turn and face the player in the triple threat position, and work from there. He's steadily refining his individual offensive game along that mold, to me. Brandon Bass hasn't taken anybody to the basket like Landry has yet. You could say the same thing about Paul Millsap. Again, it's not exact, but Landry CAN play the small forward for stretches, depending on the matchups and the eventual return of Yao Ming. That's where I base the majority of my assessments of players. With regards to how they'll play alongside Yao. I was joking about the not-wanting-to-talk-with-you-because-I-was-uncomfortable-typing-Buttocks-so-much stuff, too. Hard to convey sarcasm effectively in a blog. I guess you had to be there.....!
Landry's greatest strength is his ability to score around the basket at a high clip. He's also a good offensive rebounder (when he puts his mind to it), and he has a nice mid-range jumper. He's not a good ball-handler. He does not have 3-point range. He's not a good distributor of the ball. To me, he's very clearly a PF. The Rockets may use him at SF to matchup with a player like Shawn Marion or Lamar Odom. But that will never be his natural position.
