This confused me too but then I looked up Gheorge's stats and in his third season he had a shockingly high PER (21.0 -- that's really pretty good) of course it wasn't in a lot of minutes.
Alston's most similar player was Chris Childs. Muresan was meant for Yao (and that's only because no other player of Yao's height has been any more similar).
Wow! Well that seems a little over the top...but I guess if your life and job is basketball analysis, then that's what you do. I love the NBA and even I can't imagine how mind-numbing it must be to accurately predict all those stats for every NBA player.
Thanks for the neat info. I always hated the insider thing ESPN. Wasnt sure if it was free, but really dislike registering. Yay my first post.
What? Am I the only one that conflicted with this statement? Hayes is a very good compliment to T-mac and Yao...atleast for a back-up player. He was assisted on 59% of his buckets last year. He doesn't have much of an outside shot, but he is great at cutting to the basket when his man leaves him open to double-team Yao and T-mac--moreso than any other frontcourt player on this team. That's part of the reason I love the guy so much. He really tries to make the most out of his ability. Can a 6'6 player really shoot 57% on shots inside the circle(only 2% lower than Yao) on second chance points(on lay-ups that are likely contested)? You think a player his size would struggle to shoot so efficiently in this situation.
But he still has to come up with the assumptions. I guess I just find it hard to believe he can be even somewhat precise in regards to every player in the NBA. Did he do it for every player the last few years...wonder how accurate it is?
I agere with his overall point ... Hayes appears to have been an extremely efficient offensive player, but given that he played so few minutes with very little involvement (in terms of touches) on the offensive end, you can't assume that he'll stay that way. It could very well have been a fluke. You see that all the time with low usage players -- one year they shoot 55%, the next year they shoot 45%. I do think Hollinger is selling him short by saying he's worthless on the offensive end beyond the rebounding, but I generally agree that we shouldn't be expecting him to be shooting close to 60% from the field for the rest of his career.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA too hilarious! Hollinger made up that TS% too right? Too weird to quantify that kinda stat...
It's not going to be precise for every player. He comes with with a prediction model that should be very accurate average. It will be good for some players, it will be off for others. Just like any projections. There's no magic formula which allows you to predict exactly what a player is going to do in the future. If Hollinger had that, he'd be selling it to an NBA team for millions of dollars. The uniqueness of certain players and the lack of sample data is going the put limitations on how accurately you can predict their performance. He mentions in his player descriptions when the projections aren't very reliable. If the player didn't play a lot of minutes you can't make a strong predictin. And if his height or age is very uncommon (like Yao and Mutombo) then the pool of comparables is too small to get an accurate projection. If a player is put in a unique situation (a new coach or new team), then that can also throw off the projection.
Valid points. I'd just be pretty upset if I was paying for stock predictions, for example, only to have them qualified in certain cases with "But this isn't going to be very accurate..." What's the point of quantifying predictions if you don't think they'll be right? Are you related to Hollinger, btw, or are you him?
He didn't make it up. I believe true shooting% (TS%), as a concept, has been developed independently by multiple people. Simply put, what it's conveying is scoring efficiency. Hollinger used to use PSA, which determines how many points a player score per scoring attempt? A scoring attempt is defined as FGA + 0.44*FTA or field goal attempts plus trips to the foul line (experimentally, it's been determined that 0.44*FTA very accurately estimates trips to the foul line by a player). He switched over to TS% a year ago, which is nothing but 0.5*PSA. It's essentially telling you the same thing, just putting in a form that looks more like a "FG%" so it looks somewhat familiar.
ROFL. Boom goes the dynamite. If Bowen is on our roster for the first regular season game, we'll know for sure he has damaging pictures of either JVG or Les.
So did anyone else notice the Alston/Head hate? I think he's way off on Alston though. He's starting quality at the very least, though he may be right about how head won't get that many minutes this season. Another thing I noticed besides hayes being ranked 33 is how he said V-span could take over Alston's starting role by the end of the season....I for one just hopes he gets to play by the end of the season. Thanks for the post.
If Hayes gets real minutes this year against our opponents best players, that would make it doubtful his efficiency stays the same. I agree that Hayes is completely worthless on offensive besides putbacks and setting picks. The key is for him to be active and to make teams pay for ignoring him. If he can force teams to at least put a body on him that would be adequate for me. IMO, his main problem is fouling. He's gotta figure out the referees or he has no chance to succeed.
