The stats in this link are estimated PER for this season. Not sure how these can be accurate at all, since he'd have to provide estimates in every category.. for every player. Not that PER is a good measurement of anything anyway..
Well, the second preseason game. But I agree. There's some other things I disagree on, but generally his analysis is very good.
Those are computer-based projections of PER for next season, based on what the player has done the last couple years, and how "similar" players historically have progressed. If you want to see their actual PER last season (and I guess you don't) you could visit www.basketball-reference.com.
Rafer Alston 2005-06 season: When Houston traded Mike James to Toronto for Alston before last season, it didn't look good on paper. It ended up much worse in real life. Houston hoped Alston would give them a pure point guard to be a set-up man for Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, but what they needed much more was James' spot up shooting to prevent opponents from double- and triple-teaming Houston's two stars. Alston's 3-point stroke didn't make it through customs so he couldn't make opponents pay for the double teams, hitting only 32.7 percent from downtown. Since he took nearly half his shots from out there, this was a problem. Alston's TS% ranked 52nd among the leagues 65 point guards, with two other factors -- his poor rate of free-throws and his substandard mark once he got there -- helping drive it down. Ironically, Alston actually gave them the ball distribution they hoped. His 11.49 Pure Point Ratio ranked 18th in the NBA and he set a career-high in assists. It just became irrelevant when opponents forced him to make shots and he couldn't. Scouting report: Alston is a playground legend who gained notoriety as "Skip to My Lou" in a series of streetball videos, but does nothing remotely as flashy as a pro. He's quick with the ball, sees the floor well and is a flawless dribbler, which makes him a solid choice to run the point. His jumper is a push shot that comes and goes, and he appeared to lose confidence in it at times last year. Defensively, he's mediocre -- he's slightly undersized and doesn't move his feet particularly well, and he gambles too much. Those gambles get him quite a few steals though. On the negative side, Alston gained a bad rep after having several run-ins with Sam Mitchell in Toronto. Also, he played for Jerry Tarkanian at Fresno State, which is pretty much a red flag in and of itself. However, he was incident-free in his first season in Houston and was the last time he played for a Van Gundy too (Stan coached him in Miami). 2006-07 outlook: Until further notice, Alston is the starting point guard, but if he plays like he did last year that won't last for long. Greek import Vasilis Spanoulis and summer signee John Lucas will be breathing down his neck, and Houston probably will be looking closely at any trade opportunities. Fortunately for the Rockets, Alston should bounce back some this season and put up more respectable shooting numbers. That won't necessarily make him a quality starter, let alone a comparable replacement for James, but it would ease some of the sting of paying the remaining four years on his $25 million deal. Most similar at age: Chris Childs Shane Battier 2005-06 season: Battier took a back seat to some of Memphis' new acquisitions offensively, dropping his Usage Rate to a surprisingly low 12.5 (just 56th out of the league's 64 small forwards), but he made up for it with improved quality. Battier shot a career-best 48.8 percent from the floor, including 39.4 percent on 3-pointers, while sharply boosting his Assist Ratio from the year before. The lone drawback was a career-worst 70.7 percent mark from the line. He also took a big step up defensively, and though he was virtually ignored in the voting he was a legitimate All-Defense candidate. All-Defense votes tend to lag reality by a year or two since reputations are slow to develop, so perhaps he'll get recognition in 2008 or so, but Battier was just tremendous. Consider the evidence. The Grizzlies were a whopping 7.0 points per 100 possessions better with Battier on the court, which is one indication of his value. His opponents at small forward posted just a 13.9 PER, which is another. Battier was able to defend the rim, blocking 1.4 shots per game -- that ranked behind only Josh Smith and Gerald Wallace among small forwards, and more than doubled the rate of all but two other small forwards. But when he couldn't get the block, he stood his ground, ranking 10th in the league in offensive fouls drawn with 48 according to 82games.com. And when he couldn't do that, he flicked the ball away, averaging better than a steal a game. Scouting report: Battier isn't a great player, but he's the ultimate glue guy -- he's not great at any one thing, but he's versatile enough to do almost anything. He has enough size to play inside in a pinch, but he's a good enough shooter to rain 3s in from the corner. He has a slow delivery and isn't a great one-on-one player, but he's careful with the ball and rarely turns it over. He can defend three positions, although he's best at small forward. Finally, any report on Battier has to mention his effort and character. On the court, Battier's effort level is beyond reproach, which is one reason his defensive numbers were so good despite average athleticism. If the league kept a stat called "balls tipped to a teammate to preserve possession," he would have unquestionably led the league. In addition, if you took a poll around the league asking who was the nicest guy or the best teammate, Battier's name (along with Steve Nash, P.J. Brown and a couple other guys) would be right at the top of the list. 2006-07 outlook: The Grizzlies traded Battier to Houston in the offseason for Stromile Swift and the rights to Rudy Gay, which is likely to benefit Memphis in the long-term but will be great for Houston in 2006-07. Battier will split time between both forward spots, depending on whether the Rockets prefer to play big or small, but in either role he should benefit tremendously from all the attention on Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Battier not only can punish defenses with the 3-pointer, but he's also a good offensive rebounder and should get more second-shot chances in Houston. Additionally, his defense and hustle should mesh will with Jeff Van Gundy's scrappy style. At 28 years old, he could be poised for a career year. Most similar at age: Chris Mills Tracy McGrady 2005-06 season: McGrady has battled back trouble his entire career, but last year was the first time he missed significant action because of it. McGrady lost 15 games early in the season with back trouble, and then missed his final 20 games due to back injury from a fall in Portland. Supposedly the Portland injury wasn't related to his other back problems, but the trend is ominous nonetheless. Even when he played, McGrady obviously wasn't himself on many nights, and he finished the year below his career norms in every metric except Rebound Rate. Included in that were career-worsts of 40.6 percent from the field and 31.2 percent on 3-pointers. The poor shooting pushed McGrady's TS% way below par -- he ranked only 50th among the league's 64 small forwards. While McGrady continued to create shots at the pace of old, part of that was because his teammates were so talentless that he had no choice (that also explains the dip in Assist Ratio, incidentally). The fact is he couldn't create looks of the same quality because half the time his back was killing him. Of course, playing with a subpar McGrady was far better than the alternative. The Rockets were a decent team -- 27-20 -- with him in the lineup, but when he didn't play Houston's offensive attack pretty much went kaput. The Rockets were only 7-28 in games he didn't play, and averaged a measly 86.1 points. Scouting report: When he's on his game, McGrady is as tough to cover as any player in the league. He's a fantastic jump shooter, and at 6-8 with great leaping ability he can rise up over defenders at any time of his choosing and get a clean look. He also handles the ball very well, often acting as a point forward. He's not the most muscular guy in the world and tends to prefer the jumper to driving to the rim, but his size makes him an outstanding finisher around the basket. Despite all the attention he gets, McGrady is able to create huge volumes of shots while rarely turning the ball over, and also gets goodly numbers of 3-pointers (until last season) and free throws. That allowing him to be an extremely effective offensive player even while shooting in the low 40s. When his percentage climbs higher, as it did in 2002-03 in Orlando, he's absolutely devastating. Defensively, McGrady has always had great tools, as he has the size to challenge shots and his leaping ability makes him an effective shot-blocker. However, he hasn't always applied himself at that end of the floor. He's picked up the effort level since coming to Houston, but he could hardly have tried less than he did in his final season in Orlando. Additionally, the back issues have made it hard for him to chase opponents around on some nights, and he rarely guards a capable opponent. 2006-07 outlook: McGrady should be able to rebound from last year's disappointment and return to his All-Star caliber play -- if the back holds up. That question is likely to linger for the rest of his career, and its corollary is whether he can be effective in April as he is in November. Houston is hoping to make a big push in the West with the McGrady-Yao core, but if McGrady has to limp through the playoffs the Rockets won't get very far. Unfortunately, back trouble rarely goes away quietly. Most similar at age: Vince Carter Bonzi Wells 2005-06 season: Sacramento picked up Wells as a one-year rental following his ouster from Memphis, and it worked out extremely well for the Kings. Knowing he was playing for a new contract, the normally volatile Wells behaved himself and put up his best regular season PER since 2001-02. Of particular note was his phenomenal Rebound Rate, which was easily the best among guards and would have cracked the top five even at small forward. While Wells has been a good rebounder his entire career, this explosion was unprecedented -- he'd never had a Rebound Rate in double digits before. Then, for good measure, he really stepped it up in the playoffs. Wells destroyed San Antonio's guards with his play around the basket, repeatedly burning them on post-ups and outmuscling them under the glass to the tune of 23.2 points and 12.0 rebounds per game. Top Rebound Rate, Guards, 2005-06 Player Team Rate Bonzi Wells Sac 13.9 Jason Kidd NJ 11.4 Vince Carter NJ 9.3 Maurice Evans Det 9.2 Dwyane Wade Mia 8.7 Wells benefited from the Kings' willingness to post him up and the versatility of Sacramento's big men. They could play away from the basket, giving him plenty of room to operate down low when matched up against small guards. However, he wasn't a very efficient operator. Wells only ranked 53rd out of 58 shooting guards in Turnover Ratio, and with his lack of a 3-point shot and poor free-throw shooting (67.9%), his TS% was also subpar for his position. Scouting report: One of the most physical guards in the game, Wells loves to take guards onto the blocks and shoot a high-arcing knuckleball turnaround. He also can hit that shot from mid-range, although his accuracy gets very shaky beyond 18 feet. Wells isn't a great ballhandler and rarely attacks opponents off the dribble; mostly he's looking to back down. He was once a fantastic passer but has let that part of his game wither. Wells has fast hands, especially on strips, and great anticipation. Those two characteristics net him plenty of steals, with last season's 1.8 per game serving as a career high. Wells isn't a good one-on-one defender, however, as serious injuries to each knee have robbed him of lateral movement and his effort level isn't always what it might be. 2006-07 outlook: Wells went into free agency thinking his big playoff outing entitled him to a huge payday, but general managers had other ideas. He turned down a five-year, $36 million offer from the Kings only to realize nobody else was willing to pay him close to that amount; by the time he'd realized the mistake Sacramento had moved on and signed John Salmons. Wells ended up signing a two-year deal with Houston for $4.2 million; in effect it's a one-year rental since he has a player option, which is great business for the Rockets but not so great for Wells. He'll end up starting if Shane Battier can handle playing power forward and will have a big role in any case, but I'm wondering how well his game fits in with the Rockets' inside-out approach because he's not a 3-point shooter. Most similar at age: Kendall Gill Yao Ming 2005-06 season: Yo, Shaq -- pass the torch over here, buddy. Between a foot infection and a broken toe, Yao missed 25 games last year, but he played so well when he was in the lineup that there can be little doubt who the game's best center is. And I'm sorry Mr. O'Neal, but it ain't you any more. For the first time in nine years, the top-ranked center in PER wasn't Shaq, with Yao taking over the top spot. Top PER Center, 1995-96 To 2005-06 Year Player PER 95-96 David Robinson 29.81 96-97 Shaquille O'Neal 26.91 97-98 Shaquille O'Neal 29.32 98-99 Shaquille O'Neal 30.57 99-00 Shaquille O'Neal 30.73 00-01 Shaquille O'Neal 29.73 01-02 Shaquille O'Neal 29.61 02-03 Shaquille O'Neal 29.46 03-04 Shaquille O'Neal 24.33 04-05 Shaquille O'Neal 26.95 05-06 Yao Ming 25.74 Yao was good all year, but absolutely amazing after the All-Star break. In 25 games, he averaged 25.7 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and shot 53.7 percent from the field. Making it doubly amazing was that Tracy McGrady was out of the lineup for nearly the entire time, and the Rockets had no other capable scorers. So Yao was getting double- and triple-teamed every night, yet still destroying teams inside. Yao has always been a high-percentage scorer, but last year he evolved in two other ways. First, he hit the boards. Yao has always seemed slow to react to balls coming off the rim, but last season's 17.5 Rebound Rate ranked 14th among centers. He was better at the defensive end, where he ranked eighth overall in the NBA. But more than anything, he was way more aggressive offensively. The Rockets have always pushed Yao to be more assertive and demand the ball, something that doesn't come naturally for him. Last year, the light bulb went on -- Yao ran to the block, put his hand up, and kept it up until a ball hit it. Scouting report: Yao's ability to shoot for his size is fairly stunning. For anyone to shoot 85.3 percent from the line is impressive, but for a 7-6 center to do it is shocking. He does it despite a delivery that doesn't seem smooth -- he double-clutches a little, has his guide hand almost on top of the ball, and doesn't shoot with much arc. Regardless, it goes in, and he uses the shot to devastate opponents on turnaround jumpers when he catches the ball in the post. He has such a height advantage on his defenders that even with his limited jumping ability the opponent has no chance of bothering the shot, let alone blocking it. He's also become a much better defender. He's never going to be the most nimble guy in the league, but Yao can somewhat competently help his guard out in pick-and-roll plays and his size is an obvious deterrent to opponents driving the paint. Moreover, he seems to have finally adjusted to the speed of the game. Yao cut his foul rate pretty sharply last season, one reason he was able to average a career-high 34.6 minutes. 2006-07 outlook: I wouldn't put too much stock in Yao's projected numbers for this season. Because of the paucity of effective 7-6 players in NBA history (or ineffective ones, for that matter), Gheorghe Muresan comes up as his most similar player, and Gheorghe's health problems caught up with him at the same age. But that doesn't mean a similar fate awaits Yao. Longer term, the Rockets should be very concerned about all the basketball Yao is playing. Seven-footers can play roughly forever as long as they don't get hurt, but with players of this size the mileage on the joints and knees piles up quickly. Thus, Houston can't be thrilled that the Chinese national team ropes Yao in every summer, even for minor tournaments like the Asian games. The toe injury last year may have been a blessing in disguise, as it was Yao's first extended rest in ages. He's 26 and he's the best center in the game, but that won't be true when he's 30 unless he dials back the extracurricular stuff in the offseason. Most similar at age: Gheorghe Muresan
why isnt bonzi wells in on any of these types of articles. he has been on the team for a few weeks now.
He has Chuck as the 33rd ranked player in the league and 11th best PF. I love Chuck's play and I'm glad to see him get some recognition. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/rankings
Chuck Hayes 2005-06 season: An undrafted free agent, the Rockets only picked up Hayes when a series of injuries ravaged their frontcourt, but they're glad they did. Performance-wise Hayes was the team's third-best player and it's surprising he didn't see more action given how well he performed. Hayes came in with a reputation as an offensively limited defensive ace, but he converted at a much higher clip than expected. Hayes hit 56.2 percent from the field and had a solid rate of 0.43 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, well above the league average for a power forward. That helped him to the fourth-best TS% at the position, and it would have been even better if he'd improved on his 64.4 percent free-throw mark. He was also a monster on the boards. Though only 6-6, Hayes' 19.7 Rebound Rate was the third-best among power forwards and ranked seventh overall in the NBA. All told, his PER ranked a shocking 13th at the position -- right between Chris Webber and Antawn Jamison. Scouting report: Hayes is incredibly short for a power forward at 6-6, 238 pounds, but despite those limitations he was the SEC's Defensive Player of the Year his senior year at Kentucky. He makes up for his size with strength, toughness, tenacity and a great nose for the ball. Hayes also has fast hands, averaging a steal every 19 minutes -- numbers we usually only see from guards. Overall, the Rockets were a jaw-dropping 10.1 points per game better with Hayes on the court. That's probably a fluke because of how few minutes he played, but it nonetheless underscores that he's pretty good at that end. Offensively, he's awesome on the boards -- he was third in the league in offensive rebound rate -- but utterly worthless otherwise. His high shooting percentage came almost entirely on put-backs, but otherwise he has almost no chance of getting a shot off because of his size. He ended up with the NBA's worst Usage Rate among power forwards. 2006-07 outlook: Hayes had a great first season, but he doesn't have a snowball's chance in Houston of repeating it. His stellar shooting percentage came in only 105 attempts, and might as well have the word "fluke" written across it in green flashing neon. (The projections don't know this, incidentally, and so are much more optimistic.) The question is how deep the fall will be. Hayes can certainly defend and rebound despite his stature, and if he can continue to do those things and get the occasional putback, it might be enough for him to carve out a rotation spot. Most similar at age: Bo Outlaw Luther Head 2005-06 season: Houston's first-round pick endured a mediocre rookie campaign, providing unexceptional results in his specialty of 3-point shooting (36.1 percent) and struggling in other areas offensively. Head took nearly half his shots from beyond the arc, wisely looking to spot up and benefit from all the attention on Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. However, he struggled to create his own shot and ended up with a poor Usage Rate for a backcourt player. Head's Rebound Rate was above the norm for a shooting guard and quite good for the point (he split time between the two spots), but his ballhandling skills trended the opposite way. His Turnover Rate was below the average at either guard spot, which was dismaying considering how often all he had to was catch and shoot. His Assist Ratio was nothing to write home about either, suggesting he's better off playing off the ball. Scouting report: Head has a great shooting stroke but might be the backcourt version of a tweener. At 6-3, he's a bit small for the shooting guard spot, especially since he only weighs 185 pounds and needs to hit the weights. On the other hand, he's not terribly quick or elusive with the ball so he struggles to create offense for his teammates from the point. Defensively, Head has good anticipation and gets his share of steals, but can be overwhelmed by bigger wing players. He was fortunate that most of the time Yao Ming or Dikembe Mutombo had his back, or the carnage would have been much worse on post-ups by opposing shooting guards. Since Head figures to see most of his minutes at shooting guard this year, he'll need to hit the weights. 2006-07 outlook: Most guards take a step forward in their second season and there's no reason to expect Head to be any different. Unfortunately for him, the acquisitions of Shane Battier, Kirk Snyder, and Vassilis Spanoulis have made the Rockets a vastly deeper team. Head averaged 28.9 minutes per game a year ago thanks to all Houston's injuries, but he may not get half of that this year. Most similar at age: Smush Parker Juwan Howard 2005-06 season: To quickly summarize how weak Houston's bench was, look only at Howard. He started 80 games last year and averaged 31.7 minutes per contest . . . and he wasn't even any good. For the second year in a row he posted lukewarm numbers across the board, and there's really no reason to expect him to do better in the future. Howard was fortunate to win the starting power forward job when free-agent pick-up Stromile Swift proved to be a crushing disappointment, and his consistent mediocrity was enough to keep the job the rest of the year. In it's own way it was impressive -- Howard managed to be below average in every metric without being truly awful in any. Basically, he was a generic backup power forward . . . except that he had to start, because the Rockets didn't have anyone else they could trust to even match Howard's numbers. Scouting report: Howard has increasingly relied on his jump shot as he's aged, and this isn't necessarily a good thing. He has one of the game's most unorthodox releases, a double-clutching line-drive that sometimes never gets above the front rim, and that limits his utility as a scorer. He can also score in the post on occasion with his jump hook shot, but a lack of bulk prevents him from getting good position often. Whether he's playing inside or out, he rarely does much going toward the basket, and for that reason his free-throw rate is quite low for a frontcourt player. He's also consistently below average on the glass. Defensively, it's more of the same -- Howard isn't going to make any epic screw-ups, but he's just sort of consistently below average. He's mildly undersized at 6-9, 253 and has never been the most physical or athletic of defenders, but he's smart and won't get caught out of position. 2006-07 outlook: At 33, Howard is no longer the smooth point producer he was earlier in his career, and with his numbers projected to take another dip this year, Howard's end can't be too far off. The addition of Shane Battier should seriously cut into Howard's minutes, as the Rockets now have a real live starting NBA forward to put alongside Tracy McGrady. Chuck Hayes and Steve Novak may also cut into Howard's burn. If the Rockets ask him to play 10-15 minutes a night as the backup power forward, he'll be adequate, but if they need him to play starter's minutes again this year they're in a world of hurt. Most similar at age: Terry Cummings Dikembe Mutombo 2005-06 season: Mutombo wasn't able to keep up the high standards of his first season in Houston, but his shot-blocking and rebounding still made him an effective option off the bench. Mutombo's Usage Rate was microscopic, but when he did shoot he found the basket. His 62.8 TS% ranked second among centers, helped by a good year at the line (75.8 percent) from the 7-footer. He was also extremely effective on the glass, with his Rebound Rate ranking sixth among centers and 10th overall. Of course, Mutombo's biggest weapon is his shot-blocking. While he doesn't get as many finger-wagging chances as he used to, he still sent one back every 16.7 minutes and altered countless others. The only drawback is that the increasing emphasis on speed and quickness around the league creates more matchups where it's impossible to keep Mutombo on the court. Scouting report: Mutombo's Turnover Ratio went through the roof last year, finishing with the fifth-worst mark in the league. A lot of high-turnover big men pick up most of their turnovers on illegal screens, and Mutombo got his share of these. However, he also picked up several by getting too ambitious offensively. Mutombo doesn't get the ball much, but when he does he's not about to give it up -- his Assist Ratio was the third-worst in the league. When he catches in the post, or gets a rebound near the basket, he's looking to score. But when he makes any kind of move around the basket he travels about one time in three. This can produce some high comedy, as he's almost guaranteed to rant furiously at the official who called it, never once considering that perhaps if all the referees keep calling him for it, he might really be traveling. 2006-07 outlook: Mutombo turned 40 over the summer, but you could still do much worse for a backup center. He's 7-feet tall and has no major injury problems, so he could really keep doing this for quite a while. He's not the defensive force he was as a young player, but his ability to protect the basket, control the glass and even score occasionally gives Houston some quality depth behind Yao Ming. Thanks to his advanced age and unusual numbers, no player was similar enough to Mutombo to create projected stats for next season. Most similar at age: Robert Parish Vspan 2006-07 outlook: Houston picked the Greek guard in the second round two years ago, and should see the dividends this season. Spanoulis projects to be a quality backup point guard and could take over Rafer Alston's job by the end of the season. At 6-4 he's plenty big for the position and he had a high assist rate by European standards. Although he shot decently on 3-pointers in Europe, most European perimeter players need a year or two to adjust to the longer NBA 3-point line and Spanoulis will likely be similar. Regardless, his arrival should give the Houston backcourt a big boost after last year's implosion. Most similar at age: Aaron McKie Casey Jacobsen 2005-06 season: Jacobsen played three years in the NBA but spent the 2005-06 season in Europe, playing for Spanish club Tau Ceramica. He was only moderately effective, and his translated NBA stats for last season are thoroughly unimpressive: 10.6 points per 49 minutes, 43.1% shooting, and an 8.52 PER. Scouting report: A 6-6 swingman, Jacobsen is like a smaller version of Austin Croshere in that he can hit 3-pointers but also has a knack for getting to the free-throw line. However, he shoots very poorly inside the arc, resulting in a 39.9% career field-goal mark, and his 3-point stroke isn't quite threatening enough (37.0% career) to make up for his weak handle and inability to create shots. Jacobsen is reasonably athletic and as a result is a passable defender, but has provided less juice than expected offensively since being drafted in the first round in 2002. 2006-07 outlook: The Rockets picked up Jacobsen to fill out their backcourt, but I doubt he'll see much action unless injuries eviscerate the Houston lineup again. His shooting may help in spots, but he brings so little else to the table that he needs to be a great shooter to justify a rotation spot, and he's merely a pretty good one. Most similar at age: John Salmons JL3 2005-06 season: The son of the former Rockets point guard of the same name, Lucas wasn't drafted out of Oklahoma State but signed two 10-day contracts with the Rockets when their injury bug hit. He didn't play particularly well and wasn't renewed after the second 10-day expired. Lucas shot 38.9 percent and, despite his pass-first reputation, had a low Assist Ratio in his limited minutes. Scouting report: Though a point guard like his dad, the younger Lucas is four inches shorter at 5-11, 165 pounds, Lucas doesn't quite have the jets that his dad did. That could keep him from establishing a foothold in the league. He'll need to prove he can knock down the perimeter shot, something he did only sporadically in college, and that his size won't get him trampled on defense. 2006-07 outlook: Lucas played so well in the Las Vegas summer league that he earned himself a three-year contract with the same Houston club that spurned him late last season. He'll compete with Greek import Vasilis Spanoulis for a spot in the rotation behind Rafer Alston. Kirk Snyder 2005-06 season: Cast off by Utah after a disappointing rookie season, Snyder took advantage of an opening with New Orleans/Oklahoma City and made the most of it. After spending his rookie year hoisting terrible shots, Snyder showed much better shot selection and hit 45.3 percent from the floor. He also improved from 3-point range (35.7 percent) and rebounded well, ranking 16th among shooting guards. The net result was that Snyder turned in middle-of-the-pack performances among shooting guards in nearly every category, a feat that would have been shocking to anyone who saw him Utah the year before. He stayed in the starting lineup for 45 games, even playing the point in one contest and recording 12 assists. However, Snyder fell out of favor late in the season after he slumped to 39.4 percent in March and the team lost 12 out of 13, and he hardly played over the final month. Scouting report: The Hornets didn't seem altogether pleased with Snyder's defense, but they played better with him on the court, giving up 3.1 points per 100 possessions less. At 6-6 and 225 pounds, Snyder has the size and quickness to be very good in this area, and if he bulks up some more he should be able to shut down small forwards too. He's mostly a stay-at-home guy with low rates of blocks and steals. Offensively, he's not great in one area but can do a little bit of everything. He's a decent spot-up shooter but also has the ballhandling skill to beat his man off the dribble. Snyder has the size to post up smaller guards and should look to expand this part of his game. He needs to work on his foul shooting (70.4 percent career) too, and with his size he should draw more fouls than he does. Instead, he gets into ruts where he falls in love with his jumper. 2006-07 outlook: The Hornets traded -- check that, gave Snyder to Houston over the summer, getting only cash and a conditional second-round draft pick in 2008 in return. The coaching staff was upset with Snyder's lethargic summer-league play, but that doesn't mean they had to exile him at the first opportunity. Snyder is 23 and coming off a productive season in his first year of regular action, and since he's on a rookie contract for two more years he's a huge bargain. Houston stands to gain in a big way, and so does Snyder. The Rockets' guards were terrible last year, so there should be a rotation slot waiting for him on a silver platter. Most similar at age: Chris Carr
Well, that ranking is strictly based on projected PER (and the projections are computer based). If you actually read his subjective take, he doesn't rate Hayes that highly. He says the projections are overly optimistic. He think Hayes can be a solid rotation player.
Steve Novak 2006-07 outlook: The 6-9 shooting machine was the Rockets' second-round draft pick and could play right away. Novak isn't athletic and won't create plays off the dribble, but what he will do is shoot the lights out. Novak shot 46.1 percent and 46.7 percent on 3-pointers in his final two years in college, and hit over 90 percent from the line all four years, including -- get this -- 97.4 percent as a senior. With a shot that deadly, he doesn't need to contribute much in other areas, and that's a good thing -- he won't. Novak needs to add muscle and it's unclear who he can guard, but that sweet shot should keep him in the league for a decade. Bobby Sura 2005-06 season: Sura's season was over before it began, as knee and back problems kept him sidelined all season. Actually, he had more than "problems"-- he had microfracture knee surgery and a herniated disk in his back, both of which have high career-damage potential. Scouting report: When healthy, Sura is a solid combo guard because of his ability to contribute in multiple categories. He can run the point at 6-5, can slash to the basket and is a good passer, and he's one of the game's best rebounding guards. The one real weak link in his game is outside shooting, with a set shot on 3-pointers that rarely finds the net. His energy and hustle are constants but it remains to be seen how much zip he'll have in his step after the injuries. Because of his poor shot, he needs that extra gear in order to compete. 2006-07 outlook: Sura is still working out but is reportedly contemplating retirement. It would be a huge boost for the Rockets if he could come back and solidify the backcourt, but the acquisitions of Kirk Snyder and Vassilis Spanoulis tell me the Rockets are planning for the worst. RYBO 2005-06 season: As impressive as his relentless hustle has been to watch for the past several years, in 2005-06 Bowen reached the point where he was just completely overmatched by the NBA's talent level. Measured by PER, Bowen was the second-worst player in the league to play at least 500 minutes, and the only one who was worse (Jim Jackson) was cut at midseason. And no article on Scotty the Body. Enjoy!
Funny how his profiles sound so similar to what you read about the players on the GARM. Everything from Juwan sucks, Novak can shoot but what else can he do, Alston for James was a bad trade. I disagree with him about Vspan though, he'll never be a good enough ball handler to be a starting PG with the Rox and I would be happy if he were able to knock down a Euro 3 right now rather than him learning how to shoot an NBA 3 in the next year.
I was looking at all the similar at ages, and i'm going blank and have nothing to say. I don't know if thats a good thing! Yao - Gheorghe Muresan Mutombo - Robert Parish Howard - Terry Cummings Battier - Chris Mills Hayes - Bo Outlaw McGrady - Vince Carter Wells - Kendall Gill Alston - Chris Childs Head - Smush Parker VSpan - Aaron Mckie Snyder - Chris Carr Jacobson - John Salmons I'm sure it doesn't mean much, just interesting!
John Hollinger is in chat right now and answering questions and the rockets are being discussed by some people How can you project for Vassilis Spanoulis, as he has never played in the league. Also, why is Udrih rated so highly? John Hollinger: (4:14 PM ET ) The projections for Spanoulis, Bargnani and a few other players are based off their numbers from the Euroleague last season. I've developed a very reliable system for converting Euroleague production to NBA production, and their projections follow from those conversions. Buck - Hartford: You've got to explain Chuck Hayes being so high! John Hollinger: (4:29 PM ET ) He played great last year -- he's only 6-6 but had one of the best Rebound Rates in the league. Until we get more data, that's what I have to go on right now. So yes, I'm suspicious that he'll really do that well (as I believe I wrote in his player comment), but until we have more info that's where he goes. Dave (Midland Park, NJ): If Chuck Hayes sat next to you on a cross-country flight, would you recognize him? John Hollinger: (4:30 PM ET ) That depends. Would have a name-tag on? At the very least, a Kentucky letterman's jacket with "Chuck" in script on the front? kevin (miami,fl): can chuck hayes score on bruce bowen one on one? John Hollinger: (4:33 PM ET ) No. He rated so high because of his insane rebound rate. Michael (Houston, Tx): Do the Rockets have a chance to have homecourt in the first round this year? Tmac says his back is 100%! John Hollinger: (4:52 PM ET ) I'll believe that from TMac when he plays out a full schedule, but if he can just stick around for 60-65 games then I think the Rockets are a top four team, yes.
You're right, but I just find it funny that he is including an estimate of the stat. Might as well just estimate points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, etc. for every player since the PER includes all that.
The similarity scores are completely objective and computer based. So, for some players it may not make sense. It basically finds players who are most similar (in terms of per-minute boxscore stats) who are the same age and roughly the same height.
It's a projection for PER, and by extension a projection of those stats you named. If you actually click into the link (not sure if you have Insider or have purchased his previous Forecast books), it shows projections for those stats.
