Historic North Korea/South Korea Meeting - Trump Peace Prize?

I agree with your post. Trump's reversal for practical purposes of the Iran deal is another reason a dictator like Kim would be nuts to do a deal with the US and trust that the US is starting to lose their God given right as Amuricans to run around changing regimes through war and sanctions.

I am aware that for practical purposes Trump is essentially switching from regime change games in N.Korea to ones in Iran and apparently Venezuela. Get what you can get out of the nutter Trump. The "deep state" want war and or increased military spending on N. Korea, Iran/Middle East and Venezuela.

 

If one actually wants progress on war and peace, it is problematic to cite approvingly from either of the Bushes National Security guys.

 

Agreed. This administration’s MO is to over promise and under deliver. The new NAFTA, isn’t significantly different than the “worst trade deal ever”. I have no issues with Trump deciding to personally meet and try to negotiate but it comes off as amateur hour/dog and pony show to just walk away.

For whatever reason, Trump agrees with Kim and Putin over our intelligence as a strategy. The comments about the captured American who later died were strange. I’m not sure if he thinks it will endear him to these leaders but these dictators are a bunch of sharks who wont be swayed by flattery.

NK nukes are there to prevent an Iraq styled regime change, why would Kim give up his biggest chip?

 

I think the only perspective where Trump meeting Kim is seen as a positive is if you buy into the narrative that before Trump, NK was on the near path of regime suicide and was genuinely contemplating using their nukes rather than just having them as a show of force to deter Western powers from forcing regime change.

In reality, NK will never use their nukes. They will only threaten to when they are threatened with regime change.

So in reality Trump has done absolutely nothing in terms of "preventing nuclear war". He has empowered a murderous dictator though.

 

He obviously doesn't care about Warmbier or any other random individual American. He's not going to let a Warmbier or a Kashoggi get in the way of making deals. It is, in fact, better for him that Warmbier died because if he was still alive in a NK gulag, he'd have to spend chits to get him out. Now, he could act offended by the death like a normal American politician to get leverage with Kim, but it probably doesn't give him any leverage. So, he's left having to feign sympathy and rationalize murder -- like he had with Kashoggi and MBS -- so he isn't reproached domestically. But I think the message is pretty clear that he won't compromise any negotiating power for the life of any American in trouble abroad. Which is bad for Americans in trouble abroad. But, maybe it does disincentivize hostage-taking in the first place.

 

I just find it a weird strategy of flattery; like he’s trying to show Kim and Putin that’s he not like those other Americans they have dealt with.

Like I said, I don’t think these tactics will work with leaders like Putin or Kim. It just looks publically weak in my opinion and is high risk, high reward. I think Trump is just a guy who gambles.

 

Propaganda value with whom?

First, his own government and people. He was having issues in his own government and he was having serious issues keeping exposure to the outside world out. South Korea and the United States were both having great success getting the outside world into North Korea with the advancements in technology.

We never truly isolated North Korea.

This isn't entirely true. A large portion of the world did not trade with North Korea. Even the Chinese had imposed sanctions on North Korea and followed some of the UN led sanctions, in some cases going beyond the UN. North Korea was a real problem for China.

What Trump has done is insure that the current brutal line of dictators will continue to rule North Korea for the foreseeable future. He has even out of his way to praise him..... which is what the North Koreans are hearing in their homes and through propaganda.

 

I would disagree with 'has done absolutely nothing' although I agree that NK never planned on using its nukes. Using them would defeat their purpose...as the result of using them would like result in their own destruction. Having them, however, serves their purpose, as did making people think they *might* use them, hence the sabre rattling. Which is where I disagree with 'has done nothing'. Sabre rattling has a risk of advancing, accidentally or purposefully, into something more. It also makes any meaningful discussions less likely, and more difficult. Toning down the sabre rattling, and the associated testing, etc., is therefore real progress.

 

I tend to agree with both your and Juan Valdez's take on this (and Chris Wallace had the same take). Unlike with the Saudi's, and I think there actually might be some validity to Kim's statement that he didn't know about Warmbier until later...it's STILL a strange position to take. Rather than say "I believe him"...why not push for an apology regardless? That would be a step in the right direction. Saying "I believe him" is very close to a reverse apology. It is strange, at best. Yes, it seems to be a negotiating ploy, but I agree with both of your takes that I don't know that it makes the negotiating position stronger, but weaker. This could be one of those areas where negotiating from a foreign policy position could be quite different from doing so from a business perspective. From the business perspective, issues of posturing and perception aren't really as important as they might be from a foreign policy/government perspective. At best, even if Trump really did believe Kim....why say so?

 

I guess another concession that wasn't announced...

 

I think he does that because that how it works toward him. Flattery get you pretty far with Trump.

He does gamble, but I think he gamble blindly. He doesn't think he need to be prepare, doesn't seem wiling to learn, and like to just wing it. It's unnecessary high risk, may be lucky high reward.

 

Decreased military activity...HORRIBLE NEWS!

 

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I don’t think the policies of complete isolation and tit for tat military threats were working.

Anyhow, I’m heading to the Bahamas. You guys solve this problem and let me know what you figure out!

 

What do we get out of this concession?

Has conservative zeitgeist changed so dramatically from Obama to Trump?

 

So lets be clear, we are reducing and eliminating peaceful military exercises that act as deterrents to actual non-peaceful military activities...

 

Regime change through military invasion would have been the only thing that would have prevented NK getting nukes. No one had a stomach for that.

Figuring out how to live with a nuclear NK is the path forward.

 

I’d guess the South Koreans may have wanted this as well. Is there a longer story that explains things in more detail?

The benefit of less military activity is less military tension. The North Koreans are not threatening any strikes.

 

It's dangerous because Kim will most likely go back and start firing off missiles again and testing nukes which is what brought Trump to the table.

You are just as much off the reservation as any of these Trump loyalist.

It's your type that maybe the reason Trump gets reelected.

I can see you doing OPPO research ever bit as bad as any Republican.

 

btw, steve deace is a conservative radio talk show host...

 

trump is such an embarrassment...