it's not. but it's a higher probability than a team that's picking late finding an impact player in rounds 4-7. it's absolutely a roll of the dice, but one i think a talented team can afford to take. if i were a GM of a team locked, loaded and ready for the playoffs, and had an aging QB to boot, i would've snagged henson in round 4. and wouldn't have thought twice about it. if he sticks with baseball, oh well. i likely would've drafted a guy who had a less than 50/50 chance of making my team, anyway, so... what's lost? the probability that in 2004, i'll have nothing to show for my round 4 or 5 pick is extremely high, either way, so why not take a chance on henson? the reward is exponentially greater. i never said drafting henson came risk-free. i just don't value picks in rounds 4-7. these guys say a lot of things, btw. in fact, i'm fairly certain he made a committment to play football for four years at michigan... i understand the difference. it's a point of relativity. if mcgahee and his injury is still worth a first round pick... knowing full-well you're gonna have to pay him first round money with little-to-no idea what, exactly, you're ever going to get from him... then by comparison, shouldn't henson be worth more than a sixth round pick? at the end of the day, both have to rate as question marks for 2004 and beyond. yes, you get to retain mcgahee's rights, but the trade-off is the structure of his contract, making it a relevant comparison, imo. perhaps when you're still drafting for value. but i'm not arguing he should've been a first round pick; i'm arguing if teams truly thought he was the franchise player you guys seem to think, then taking him late in round 4 or 5 is, again imo, a no-brainer. look at the hollings situation -- injured knee, little experience, and the guy goes in round 2 of a supplemental draft. personally, that's the kind of "out there" thinking i want from my GM. hell, casserly nabbing henson in round 6 was a stroke of genius. we're either dealing with a guy teams aren't that enamored with or a group of GMs with no balls.
