Harden Leads Top 10 SGs (ESPN)

jman7373 · Aug 21, 2014

Here are the top 10 PFs.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11384089/nba-projecting-top-10-power-forwards-warp-2014-15

Projecting top 10 PFs for 2014-15
Anthony Davis leads WARP-based ranking of NBA's best power forwards
Updated: August 21, 2014, 3:04 PM ET
By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider

Last year, LeBron James topped our power forward rankings, which in a way was unfair to the guys who play the position on a full-time basis. But what are you going to do? James played the 4 more often than not again last season, his final in Miami.

But now that he's going back to Cleveland, James has slimmed down and appears poised to reclaim his old job as small forward of the Cavaliers. So we shifted him back to the 3 for this year's rankings, which opens up the field for the real power forwards, one of whom might challenge James' supremacy atop the league very soon and another who will be trying to help James hoist another title trophy.

Below we continue our NBA positional ranking according to forecast WARP, with the projected top 10 power forwards for the 2014-15 NBA season. (An explanation of the statistic can be found at the bottom of the page.)

PG | SG | SF | PF | C

Davis
1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.3 | Win%: 66 percent

Davis has already blossomed into the kind of player the Pelicans hoped he'd be when they won the 2013 draft lottery and, at 21, he can still get much better. Davis' offensive game exploded last season as he put up the usage rate of a high-scoring wing and the true shooting percentage of a solid, close-to-the-basket big man. Add it all up and Davis' 15.1 WARP ranked fifth in the league. The other players to hit that WARP before reaching age 22: Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and Tracy McGrady.

While Davis claims the top projection by our new methodology, this system does hurt him a bit because his real plus-minus (RPM) values, while positive, suggest his impact doesn't quite boost his teammates as much as his production suggests it should. Don't worry, that part of his game will come next, along with a lot of MVP votes.

Love
2. Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 14.2 | Win%: 69 percent

Love's 20.2 WARP ranked third in the league behind James and Kevin Durant in 2013-14. The new methodology used for ranking purposes generates WARP scores a bit lower at the top end of the scale, but even though it's RPM-based that doesn't mean Love is penalized by an inability to impact a team's bottom line. His plus-6.4 RPM was elite, and he was positive on both ends of the floor. There are a lot of reasons Minnesota never made the playoffs with Love, but he was in no way one of those reasons.

Griffin
3. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 13.3 | Win%: 65 percent

In many respects, including both statistically and stylistically, Griffin has evolved little as a professional player. Which is mostly fine, as his 37.2 WARP over the past three seasons puts him ahead of 98.5 percent of all NBA players. Griffin's one weakness is his performance has generally dropped off in the playoffs. Not much, but a little. For L.A. to eventually break loose on a title RUN, Griffin needs to explode when he's needed most. When Chris Paul was out last season, Griffin raised his level of play, especially as a playmaker, so it's good to know he has more in reserve if it's needed.

Millsap
4. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.3 | Win%: 61 percent

Millsap was just as good last season in Atlanta as he was the season prior in Utah, which is plenty good, but for whatever reason he seemed to garner more attention after moving to Atlanta. His offensive arsenal evolved in Mike Budenholzer's system, as Millsap turned many of his midrange shots into 3-point attempts, which he converted at right about the league average. His usage rate jumped by 3.4 percent, which is why his true shooting percentage was stagnant despite the improved shot selection. Hopefully Millsap can ratchet up the efficiency with Al Horford back in the lineup. Even if he doesn't, Millsap is an extremely valuable two-way player.

Smith
5. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.8 | Win%: 59 percent

Smith has enough of a track record that his 1.6 WARP disaster from last season doesn't wreck his forecast going forward. He's still just 28, and healthy, so there is little reason he can't return to his days as a double-digit WARP performer -- if used correctly. That means putting a stop to habits like finishing 17 percent of his possessions with 3-point attempts, even though he made just 26 percent of them. One thing saving Smith's outlook is his RPM profile; it actually was positive on the offensive end and was again well in the black on defense. Stan Van Gundy will figure this out.

Aldridge
6. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.7 | Win%: 58 percent

Aldridge has had better seasons, but few seem to realize it after his volume shot up in the 2013-14 regular season and he left us with some breathtaking performances in the playoffs. He has to be careful, as his 30 percent usage rate is high for a big man, and his .507 true shooting percentage doesn't justify it. Not that it's that cut and dry. His offensive RPM was plus-2.6, and with his offensive arsenal focused on all those baseline face-ups, his turnover rate was very low. As long as Aldridge is impacting the team in a positive way, who's to complain?

Young
7. Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.8 | Win%: 58 percent

If the rumored trade does finally go down, you can see that in going from Love to Young, Minnesota would be losing about six wins of value from its starting power forward position. Young turned into a do-it-all performer toward the end of the Sixers' horrid 2013-14 season after Evan Turner was traded, showing heretofore unseen passing skills and using more possessions than ever. However, that's not his game on a good team.

Ibaka
8. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 8.6 | Win%: 57 percent

This ranking seems low for Ibaka, who has put up 9.6 or more WARP in three straight seasons, and is still at an age (24) when his numbers should be expected to improve. The disconnect is a product of RPM, where he was plus-0.4 on the offensive end -- the first positive season of his CAREER -- while his defensive RPM slipped from plus-3.5 to plus-1.9. The hidden narrative is that it seems like the more Ibaka tries to do, the less he helps his team. That's a trend worth watching.

Faried
9. Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.4 | Win%: 57 percent

With Faried eligible for an extension, there has been some debate about just how valuable his style of play actually is. There are legitimate reasons for the concern. He's turned into a high-volume offensive performer, and his percentages mostly justify that approach. He's good off the offensive GLASS and gets to the foul line, keeping his offensive RPM positive. However, his defensive profile is disappointing, and last season his RPM on that end sank to minus-1.6. The bottom line is that while Faried's style of play has evolved considerably over three seasons, his overall value has been stagnant.

Johnson
10. Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.3 | Win%: 57 percent

Johnson is among the players benefiting the most by our reliance on RPM in the new ranking methodology. Johnson's 3.7 WARP last season was nothing special, but he was getting 29 minutes per game on a Raptors team enjoying its best season, so he must have been doing something right. Indeed, his plus-6.1 RPM was outstanding, and he split that up on both ends of the floor. In fact, he's been plus-3.2 or better on defense for three seasons RUNNING. He fits in well with Toronto's collection of underappreciated standouts.

Next five: Dirk Nowitzki, Ryan Anderson, Derrick Favors, Tim Duncan, Terrence Jones

Come on now, Nowitzki and Duncan are a combined 76 years old. The aging curves are what drags down their projections, though their level of play has never fallen off from elite. They're old, they're good and you shouldn't head to Vegas to WAGER that either one will indeed finish out of the top 10.

Also notable: Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, David West, Zach Randolph, David Lee, Kevin Garnett

Some big names are projected to succumb to the ravages of age, and all have already shown signs of slippage. Mirotic, on the other hand, is just getting started and projects better than any other rookie to make an immediate impact.
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jman7373 · Aug 21, 2014

So with PG through PF ranked so far, Harden has the 4th highest WARP behind Lebron, CP3, and Durant.

jordnnnn · Aug 21, 2014

jman7373 said: ↑

So with PG through PF ranked so far, Harden has the 4th highest WARP behind Lebron, CP3, and Durant.
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And somehow a portion of his own teams fanbase let's his defense blind them to the fact that he is still one of the absolute best players on the planet.

YaoMing#1 · Aug 21, 2014

jordnnnn said: ↑

And somehow a portion of his own teams fanbase let's his defense blind them to the fact that he is still one of the absolute best players on the planet.
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Those ppl are idiot fan boys of mascot players.

mylilpony · Aug 21, 2014

Spacemoth said: ↑

Jimmy Butler is the #4 SG in the league? Woof.
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Gotta get the Chicago clicks.

Johndoe804 · Aug 21, 2014

Victor Oladipo over Manu Ginobili? Manu should be a lot higher. Even at his age.

traveler · Aug 21, 2014

Where is Lin? Racist list.

Amir's Johnson · Aug 21, 2014

jman7373 said: ↑

Here are the top 10 PFs.

Johnson
10. Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.3 | Win%: 57 percent

Johnson is among the players benefiting the most by our reliance on RPM in the new ranking methodology. Johnson's 3.7 WARP last season was nothing special, but he was getting 29 minutes per game on a Raptors team enjoying its best season, so he must have been doing something right. Indeed, his plus-6.1 RPM was outstanding, and he split that up on both ends of the floor. In fact, he's been plus-3.2 or better on defense for three seasons RUNNING. He fits in well with Toronto's collection of underappreciated standouts.
Click to expand...

I made it!

traveler · Aug 21, 2014

lol

Amir's Johnson said: ↑

I made it!
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Congrats. Well deserved.

EightDoobies · Aug 21, 2014

Just keep boosting Harden up for next season.

vlaurelio · Aug 21, 2014

EightDoobies said: ↑

Just keep boosting Harden up for next season.
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you think warp is a.flawed metric? or simply hatin

peleincubus · Aug 21, 2014

terrence jones will be #10 or #9 next season on that list. mark my words clutchfans readers

jman7373 · Aug 22, 2014

Top 10 Centers for those who care.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11392083/nba-andre-drummond-leads-projected-rank-top-10-centers-warp

Projecting top 10 centers in 2014-15
Is the NBA witnessing a generational changing of the guard in the paint?
Updated: August 22, 2014, 10:39 AM ET
By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider

The No. 1 center spot was once Dwight Howard's exclusive domain, but things are changing. Howard is still as good as anyone in the middle, but he's being challenged by not only first-team All-NBA center Joakim Noah, but by dynamic young players on teams that are, to put it kindly, in transitional phases.

Defensive mobility is an essential trait for today's big men, or else they can be schemed right off the court. But however you value the contributions of today's centers, rim protection remains as important as ever and ensures that the NBA isn't going retire the position anytime soon.

Below we continue our NBA positional ranking according to forecast WARP, with the projected top 10 centers for the 2014-15 NBA season. (An explanation of the statistic can be found at the bottom of the page.)

PG | SG | SF | PF | C
Last year's center rankings are here.

Drummond
1. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.5 | Win%: 64 percent

Drummond might be the league's best rebounder, and his ability to dunk everything keeps his offensive efficiency high. His 13.8 WARP last season ranked 11th in the league, and he ended the season still too young to legally purchase a six pack of beer. Yet Drummond can be so much better. First, he's carving out a special place for himself among the pantheon of the NBA's worst free throw shooters. And his defensive real plus-minus (RPM) was break-even despite his shot-blocking and off-the-charts rebounding. Hopefully Stan Van Gundy can harness Drummond's immense energy and channel it in a positive direction.

Cousins
2. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 11.2 | Win%: 63 percent

Cousins is just beginning what promises to be a long run as one of the league's best big men. His 2013-14 WARP (13.6) ranked 13th in the NBA and was six wins better than the season before. Everything was better, including career bests in usage rate and true shooting percentage, and improved rates in assists, rebounds and blocks. He put up more foul shots, but had fewer fouls and turnovers. His defensive RPM climbed to plus-2.4. However, he was minus-0.5 on offense and rates below average as a whole in the NBA, so his production is still coming somewhat in a vacuum. Now that he's got his own game where it needs to be, Cousins can focus on boosting the level of his teammates.

Howard
3. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.1 | Win%: 60 percent

Few would doubt Howard's status as an elite player, and he enjoyed a solid 10-WARP season during his first season with the Rockets. Yet it seems the MVP-level Howard of Orlando vintage is gone for good. Sure, 10 WARP was a slight improvement over his season with the Lakers, and it put him in the 96th percentile leaguewide, but it's less than half what he put up during his best season with the Magic. His defensive impact (plus-4.7 RPM) is still considerable. But his offensive RPM has been negative for two years running. If Houston can figure out why that's happening, look out.

Noah
4. Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 10.0 | Win%: 60 percent

Last year, Noah was rewarded for his best professional season by being named the defensive player of the year and earning first-team All-NBA honors. For a player lauded for his intangibles, his tangibles were awfully impressive. Noah's 14.0 WARP ranked 10th in the league, as he established career bests in usage, assist rate and defensive rebound rate. Chicago ran much of its offense though Noah, perhaps the NBA's best passing big man, and he became a nightly threat for a triple-double. It will be fascinating to see how this fully mature version of Noah meshes with Derrick Rose.

Monroe
5. Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.5 | Win%: 60 percent

Like Josh Smith, Monroe's game faltered from ill-conceived schemes, and it was easily the worst season of his career. Monroe is effective as both a scorer and a passer with the ball in his hands, but that just didn't happen often enough a season ago. Assuming he returns to the Pistons one way or another, he's another player you hope Van Gundy will get back on track. His RPMs, by the way, remained positive, and he's been better than break-even on both ends of the floor in every season of his career.

Jordan
6. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 9.0 | Win%: 58 percent

When you draft a big-man project at the top of the lottery and he doesn't pan out, it's a major setback for a franchise. When you draft one in the second round and he turns out to be DeAndre Jordan, you've put your team on the elite track. Jordan posted 12.0 WARP in 2013-14 despite being as low usage as ever. His value stays high because of his elite rate of finishing: 67.7 percent in 2013-14. His rebounding is what really exploded, as Jordan grabbed 29.3 percent of opponent misses, by far a career best. His RPM on the defensive end was an outstanding plus-3.0, but he was positive on the offensive end as well.

Gasol
7. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.6 | Win%: 56 percent

Gasol missed 23 games last season, but he wasn't as good even when he did get on the floor. His defensive impact was intact; Gasol's RPM on that end was plus-5.0. On offense, however, his true shooting percentage fell below league average, even as he used more possessions than ever. Gasol's shooting percentages have always been up and down, so there is hope for a rebound. Memphis will likely need him to maintain a similar level of usage, as Zach Randolph is not getting any younger.

Jefferson
8. Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 7.2 | Win%: 54 percent

Jefferson's production last season wasn't the best of his career, but it was representative of the higher end of his personal spectrum. He had his best rebounding season in years and became the focal point of the Hornets' attack. Jefferson's offensive RPM was plus-1.3, which understates just how valuable it was for Steve Clifford to have him as an offensive starting point. Jefferson's defensive RPM was neutral, but he was the starting center on a very good defensive team.

Hibbert
9. Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 6.9 | Win%: 56 percent

Has any player had more of an up-and-down season that Hibbert's 2013-14 campaign? In the postseason, the extremes continued, as he alternated between breakout performances and virtual nonexistence. The statistical bottom line is that Hibbert's WARP (2.4) was his lowest since his rookie season. His overall rebound rate of 12.4 percent was a career nadir and was downright pitiful for a 7-foot-2 starting center. His 2-point field goal percentage (.439) was his worst yet. Hibbert's defensive impact was still there, but for the first time, Pacers fans had to wonder if it was worth it.

Horford
10. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
Projected 2014-15 WARP: 5.9 | Win%: 56 percent

Who's to say the Hawks didn't make an impact acquisition this summer? If Horford, who has played 11, 74 and 29 games the last three years, respectively, returns to health, Atlanta could be poised for a major surge in the East standings. Horford's winning percentage in his limited time a season ago was a career low, so you do have to be concerned whether all the injuries have taken their toll.

Next five -- Chris Bosh, Nikola Vucevic, Anderson Varejao, Robin Lopez, Marcin Gortat

Bosh's willingness to subsume his game in service of LeBron-led title runs is endlessly admirable, and with teams throwing max offers his way over the summer, it's obvious that league decision-makers still think there's elite production there. With James gone, we'll find out soon enough.

Also notable -- Omer Asik, Brook Lopez, Nikola Pekovic

If Lopez's playing-time forecast wasn't kneecapped by his injury issues, his projected winning percentage would have been good enough to get him in the top 10. Let's not forget two things: His winning percentage (.648) was a career best before he was injured, but at the same time, the Nets got a lot better after he was hurt.
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mfastx · Aug 22, 2014

Haha, wow. Disrespect for Dwight is real.

Cstyle42 · Aug 22, 2014

mfastx said: ↑

Haha, wow. Disrespect for Dwight is real.
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When I saw Andre Drummond was ranked #1 I immediately scrolled down... waste of time reading.

traveler · Aug 22, 2014

Faried is number 9.

Pukimonster · Aug 24, 2014

Johndoe804 said: ↑

Victor Oladipo over Manu Ginobili? Manu should be a lot higher. Even at his age.
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I don't know how Oladipo made top 10 and Afflalo doesn't even get a mention

baubo · Aug 24, 2014

I think the if there's one thing this stat really overstate, it's the "aging curve." Given the advancement in sports medicine, using historical data to help determine age-related regression is not really that useful. At the very least, there needs to be some adjustment for players who are less reliant on athleticism like Dirk whose game clearly ages better than normal.

Very interesting he had Drummond's WARP so high last year, given that team stats had the Pistons pretty mediocre on defense even when he played. His counting stats don't seem to scream #1 center either.

qwertzy · Aug 25, 2014

what can we say about espn, Drummond best c,cp3 is better than westbrook,josh smith is better then lma,and many, many nonsense

arjun · Aug 25, 2014

so aldridge behind millsap and josh smith....and dwight/noah both behind drummond/cousins...

good job ESPN. #credibilityoutthewindow

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