Gregg Popovich not a fan of making the NBA season longer

You think NBA can make up the 25% decrease in games through price increase (needs to be ~32% increase in tickets, concession and parking prices) and you also think that an average NBA game ratings (for a local TV broadcast) will also go up by the same amount (either that or the local TV deals don't care about 25% less product and are willing to be paid the same).

I don't think so which is why I don't think it's likely that the owners and players (it will hit the BRR and thus their contracts) will really go for 62 games.

 

My numbers did not say that National TV contracts value will go down, but local will. I'm uncertain that you can guarantee that national value will go up either. What else? My argument also isn't that they will give up the entire amount, but that for this to be a break even business decisions for the average owner, the numbers don't look good.

The other side of the coin is that if the price elasticity is such that the average fan isn't as price sensitive (i.e. they can just raise price and people will still come to the games), we're talking about a 32% increase in ticket/concession and parking prices, something I don't want. I'm not a season ticket holder either (don't live in Houston), so I'm assuming individual games.

You're saying that season tickets fans are willing to pay the same amount per year for 10 less games. I'm unsure if that's true, even if you say you don't go to every game, do you sell excess tickets? Would you be ok for you to not be able to (less game means less games sellable to recoup your upfront cost)? I'm also unsure the break down of % Season ticket holder vs. individual game buyers.

 

You are assuming local ratings/gm will remain constant. Sponsors buy for the whole season. Not per game. They just want to see proof of total ratings. We are saying a better product will increase ratings/gm. I'm sure Monday games drag down ratings. You get rid of them, ratings/gm will increase. That's all the sponsor negotiations are concerned about. I'm saying, it won't be linear like you assume.

Yeah, owners will lose concessions. But when they own the freaking stadium, this frees up days for them to host other events. The history of the NBA is that the stadiums were built first and they invented the NBA to fill them. But the money was in the stadium itself. Owners of stadiums will not let that stadium go empty. Toyota Center does not close in the Summer. Les makes money on concerts during the season. In fact, if you buy a luxury box for the Rockets, you get rights to all concerts, too. Les could extend that to other STHs as well.

Think outside the box

If the city builds stadiums for owners, we should expect them to make their own money off of them.

Owners are conservative, so they don't want change. But if change happens, they are business men. They can adjust. That's why they are billionaires.

I can't speak for all STHs like hotballa customers, but what I'm saying is the price of ownership for season tickets probably won't go down, knowing Les. We have one payment. We only get upset when that payment goes up. (for the record, I had perfect attendance until I moved to Boulder. Now I give away my tix. But, even when I was in Houston, I would be more than thrilled to not have to attend as many games.)

For every STH that says "Screw this" another person on the waiting list will JUMP at the opportunity to buy.

But you're right, the corporate clients who buy for business reasons probably want 41 games, even if they don't use them. But from my experience knowing friends at law firms, they don't actually resale, because it causes too much accounting issues. They just give them away if a client can't use them.

The scalpers who aren't Rockets fans at all, but buy season tickets, also won't care if the full season price remains the same, as well.

So, who are we trying to accommodate.

 

Who cares what Pop says, he's not a basketbal god or anything. Everybody should agree that any competitive sport is not meant to be played 4-5 times a week. Just look at all these injuries, that's not just dumb luck, it's an indirect result of playing so much. It's time to make the season 58 games. Just play every single team once at home, one away. This makes too much sense, makes it more 'fair', more balanced, more even and more manageable. Owners and the NBA is greedy though so this will never happen.

 

Y'all are all lying to yourselves. We would all rather watch more basketball than less, regardless of if players are resting or tired. You want to watch American Idol instead or something? Shortening the season doesn't do anyone any favors. Stop pretending like it's something you want. If you'd legitimately prefer fewer games then I question whether you even like watching basketball.

Hey guys, I'm a fan of basketball. I post on a basketball forum. You know what I'd LOVE? Watching LESS basketball!!! Woohooooooo!

Okay....

 

Look your argument is basically this:

You believe that the reducing 25% of of the games will be fine for the owners because:

• Fans are going to be willing to pay the same amount for 30 games as they do for 40 games because fans are not as price sensitive.
  
• Local TV sponsors are willing to pay the same amount for 30 games as they do for 40 games because the ratings will increase enough that they can pass it on through advertisers.
  
• And that they can get additional revenue from other events in the arenas (though I think that it's different team by team depending on the referendum when building the Arenas).

I just don't see it as likely with the upside limited and downside quite severe. Do you really see a business owner making that call? Why would they take the risk?

 

Those guys sure run a lot of miles going from First to Second.

 

Scrap the East/West conference, reduce the games per season to increase per game revenue, and do like the NFL and have a NBA/ABA conference spread across the entire US and just go at it like that.

Screw all this east west crap. Do strength of schedule balancing each year to solve the balancing issue and there you go.

NBA conference
ABA conference

 

This. For keeping it real.

 

I think cutting the season by 12 games or so makes sense. Less injuries make for higher ratings. Scarcity makes for higher ratings. More people will tune in with less games.

 

I really, really question the validity of those numbers. I've watched a number of Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Hawks games this year, teams with actual promise, and there are far too many nights where there are MAYBE at 65% capacity.

My guess is they count season ticket sales as part of the capacity, and you cannot differentiate how many tickets were resold onto the market to determine the capacity of the crowd at these games. Its simple, just turn on any Pelicans or Hawks game and with a straight face tell me they're at 90% capacity in a random game against Boston or Utah.

There are some teams where night after night they're full, but other teams where just no f**kin way they are at 90% capacity. And I SERIOUSLY doubt the 76ers average nearly 70% attendance in a full on tank year. They could barely fill their arena to 70% when they were in the playoffs a few years back.

 

I mean, these guys don't see their family for pretty much half the year. Its a job, and a grind. They get paid well, but they are earning their keep.

Pop is expressing his opinion, and he has absolutely the right to do so as a veteran coach.

He's saying he's out if the schedule is extended, guy probably appreciates the months where he can spend night after night with his family.

 

The thing in this thread is no one is considering the impact that 20 more practice days will have on the sport. Both the NCAA and Euroleague have vastly more days that a coaching staff can use to implement more complex systems

Guys ,,, this reducing games is one of my biggest issue with the NBA for many years. There a many layers to this discussion. Let's talk about this. I love this discussion

If you want a better product, give the teams the same practice time that every other basketball league in the freaking world has

 

Exactly, just because they get paid millions doesn't mean they cant be humans too. In the end, we are just people being people.

 

You do know this only makes sense if you only watch rockets games. You say you love the sport. Do you not watch other games? If not, you're not the bball fan that you are trying to portray.

And you also have a shocking lack of appreciation to what added practice time/days can do to improving your team's chemistry and execution which will add directly to your enjoyment of the game.

 

Yeah no kidding. I imagine a lot of people around the league will be taking note of how a mere bowling game plus two weeks of rest for Lebron seemed to change the entire fortune for David Blatt and the Cavs.

The #1 factor that absolutely, positively cannot be quantified in the NBA is team chemistry.

 

It's amazing how much focus right now is on how advanced analytiics can improve the NBA, ehere the real improvement is right under our noses. We are talking about improving team chemistry and execution with more practice and fans are attacking the idea and many in the media will to

Nothing will come close to improving the NBA than giving it comparable practice days that college and Euroleague teams have the luxury of

 

I'd also add in the right mix of veteran leadership, guys who've been there, done that, and even though their roles may be minor on the floor, in the locker room they are simply critical to success.

Building a cohesive unit that can win titles takes the right mix of talent, leadership, coaching, continuity, and chemistry. Much more art than a science in my opinion, and difficult to duplicate. The numbers are very important to finding edges and advantages to exploit, but ultimately team basketball depends on trust and knowing who on the floor will be where at all times. Anyone who regularly plays in a league vs. pickup basketball knows how substantially different the flow of a game is when you are used to the guys around you, and on an NBA level that level of comfort is amplified substantially.

 

With regards to the owners and players, not sacrificing money or salary. I think it's workable.

Start the season a little, later. November/December, while minimizing back-to-backs and including All-Star (Break) after the All-Star game. They don't play again until the following Thursday - Saturday. Have another week out before the playoffs to let everyone get healthy.

Spread out the Conference Finals/NBA Final games from 2-4 days. Try to schedule Game 7s on the weekends (preferably Sundays) or holidays (Fourth of July or Memorial Day).

Put more double and triple headers on TV (TNT, TBS, and ABC) and another network beside NBA TV. Choose something, like USA or ABCFamily.

 

Yeah, the numbers are probably tickets sold, which for all business intents and purposes are probably what matter the most. Once again, I'm not saying that you'll lose 1/4 of your income if you cut 1/4 of the games, elasticity curves don't always work like that. But they will lose quite a bit of that revenue if they do nothing, i.e. don't raise prices, don't renegotiate/redo TV deals and don't try to find replacement events.

I am saying that cutting 1/4 of the games will create a new business problem that owners will have to solve (new TV contracts, new pricing and market strategies) just to break even with a large enough downsides and not enough business upsides that I just don't think they would (or should) do it.