The truth is....if we had Kyle, Goran, and Lee as our backcourt rotation, there is 32 minutes per game for each of them. That covers the whole backcourt for somewhere around $18 million per season. This is based on Lee and Dragic re-signing for around $6 million per. Very efficient payroll, very efficient on the floor. Then you've got Chandler to eat up 30 minutes or so at SF with Lee bleeding into the SF spot for a few minutes. So actually, between Lowry, Dragic, Lee, Parsons, Bud you've got the whole perimeter covered for about $20 million per season based on signing Dragic and Lee to salaries starting around $6 million per. That leaves $38 million to cover the big men. If we could somehow turn Martin and Scola into Gasol, drop Sam, re-sign Camby for about $2 mill per, and bring over Motie, we'd still have around $12 million to go get another really good big.....like Asik. I think that team would be a serious contender.
I don't see how we can turn Martin and Scola into Gasol again... maybe Morey can work some magic, but both of their value is down. I also think Dragic is much better as a PG. He can play the 2 fine but he makes a much bigger impact as a 1... as we are seeing.
This is the way I see the Rockets for 2012-13. Returning: Lowry Martin Parsons Morris Scola Patterson Option picked up: Dalembert – 6.7m Bud – 885k Qualifying Offer: Lee - 3.1 m Released: Smith That leaves us with 40 million under contract with no picks signed. Let’s say that we don’t trade up and have 2 picks and sign them both now (no Euro stash) – now we’re up to 43 million. Assume that DMo comes over for @1.5m and we resign Lee for @6m… That leaves us with @8m remaining to resign Camby and/or Dragic. Now we might be able to go over by Camby and/or Dragic before signing Lee. I’m not sure about when the salary restrictions kick in or if we can play around that. I’m sure Bima’s future article will state the options. But let’s just assume best case scenario that we can sign them all. We are over the cap. No max free agent as some believe – that only happens if you release Lee, Dalembert and don’t sign Goran, Camby and don’t bring DMo over. Other than DWill – who’s going to Dallas – there is no one in the list IMO that’s worth those cuts. So that leaves us with: Lowry / Goran Lee / Martin Parsons / Bud / Morris Scola / Patterson / DMo Dalembert / Camby Add 2 picks and that’s 14 positions. I don’t know how happy Dragic is going to be getting put back in the backup pg role. With his play since Lowry’s been out, I do think he’s on someone’s radar so he may be really tough to keep. In fact I think whether he’s a starter is just as important to him as how much money he gets but that’s all speculation. That leaves us to try and fill the backup spot with a min contract player if we don’t draft a pg which this draft is very light on. The other option would be to trade Lowry but that would only be done if Dragic says he’d wait and sign with us AND we find a good package for Lowry. Personally I think that might be harder than it seems. Bottom line: it will be hard to keep Goran. If we lose him, we will have to find a replacement for around @4m (if Camby gets 4m). Also I do see a log jam at the 4 position – again. I would assume that one of our PFs gets traded because riding the bench is a rather expensive option. I’m not sure you can trade Scola that easily. He will be going on 32 and is owed over 30 million through 2015. And they aren’t bringing over DMo just to turn around and trade him. So that leaves Patterson as the odd man out. And it’s a shame that our other #14 pick is playing behind 2 second rounders. Maybe Morey can turn 2 #14s into a future 1st round pick with the Suns (reunite the twins) as a semi-do-over. What’s sad is that if we lose Dragic we will basically be parading out the same team except replacing the loss of Goran with a Euro stash PF, a 38 year old Camby, a new backup pg and 2 mid-to-late picks (which most like head to the DLeague). Not exactly a championship caliber team there. Just good enough to fight for another playoff spot in 2013. [Edited for updates based on meh's comments]
Lowry has better stats than Goran has had since becoming a starter. Even if Goran keeps it up, all it means is that he will be a starter elsewhere. It's not even like this is surprising, everyone knew what he was capable of when he wasn't out of control offensively. The problem has been consistently playing under control, which he's improved upon, his actual skills haven't shown any improvement.
Goran's usage may be higher, but that doesn't really depend explicitly on minutes per game. So, if he plays exactly the same way but he's on the court for 15 more minutes a game, his usage and PER won't change. Both stats are already "minutes adjusted".
WE NEED TO DO SOME IN HOUSE SHOPPING THIS OFF SEASON. SAME AS WE DID WITH LUIS AND KYLE. WE MUST DO THE SAME FOR COURTNEY AND DORAN, PLEASE MORRAY! DONT F*** THIS ONE UP!!!!
Its possible, but I wasn't really refering to number of shots, more getting the ball where he likes it and running set motion screen plays for Martin. Martin is at his best when he curls across the court and gets an open three or curls around the court and gets the ball going to his left as he moves to the basket. Again, alot of the time I see Lowry dribble dribble dribble the shot clock down and then pass it to someone (alot of the times Martin) to take a contested shot. Martin then misses or makes a standing drive, also not his strongest move, and misses. I won't pretend to know whether coach calls those plays or Lowry/Dragic does, all I know is it doesn't happen as much this year and its hindering Martin. Mechanics are important. I do like Chase's shot, he is really good about going straight up and down and releasing at the peak of the jump. I wasn't butthurt about anything, the Lowry brigade is super defensive of even the slightest criticism for whatever reason. I have always liked Lowry, but I choose to be honest about his pros and cons, instead of being a blatant homer.
Honestly, PF is our easiest position to upgrade, which makes Scola the most expendable. No matter what happens we'll have good, young, improving, cost-efficient players at PG, SG, and SF. I'm cool with a couple older defensive/rebounding 5s, Dalembert/Camby. You can get away with a lot when you have two rim protectors like that. Scola is an offense-only guy who is not a shot creator on a team of two-way players which desperately needs a shot creating all star to push itself over the top. On top of that, he is on the least cost-efficient contract on the team, and he has already peaked--he will only get worse from here.
A few notes. And Bimathug can correct me since I'm only superficially familiar with the CBA. Lee's cap hold next year will be ~$5.6mil. Meaning that's how much he counts against the cap until the Rockets either resign him or release him. Hence for cap purposes, if we want to retain him, is that amount. It's the same with Dragic except his cap hold will be ~$4.2mil. Motiejunas will be on the rookie scale when he comes over, rather than any amount he wants. I don't know what's the money for #20, but Morris makes $1.8mil this year. So Motiejunas will make slightly less than that. This doesn't apply to Llul if he comes. The Rockets have no MLE. That only exist for teams over the cap. If the Rockets go over the cap this offseason, they can have one next year.
Thanks for those comments. I've updated my post accordingly. I should have known that Motiejunas would be under the rookie scale. I was hopeful that once we went over, we'd be able to use the MLE but I think you are correct that they look at the team salary before the FA spending happens. Also assumed that Lee's cap hold was based on the Qualifying Offer. Is that not true? http://www.hoopsworld.com/houston-rockets-team-salary [Edit: It looks even worse with those corrections. I guess we float for another year.]
No. Making the shot is important. Mechanics are only "important" when teaching/learning to shoot since solid form is a good foundation for a good shot. But however your shot evolves or develops from that point, as long as you can get it off and you can make it, it doesn't matter one iota what it looks like.
If the Rockets salary dump for capspace before July 1st they can offer Dragic a contract extension/lock him up before he hits free agency.
Regarding lowry's shot vs dragic's, i think Dragic has a softer shot, which leaves him with more room for error. For lowry to make shots, it seems like hes got to be near perfect when he sets, shoots, and releases.
Do we still have that 1st rounder? Phoenix is having a pretty good run right now, though they did the same last year but ran out of gas. This season being shorter could benefit them. How about that?
