"There is no skill associated with driving in runs, other than the general skill of being able to hit"? What? First off being able to hit is a HUGE skill, and if you can't hit you'll be replaced by someone who can. Secondly, there's a HUGE difference being able to hit with men in scoring position. I don't know what Altuve's avg is with men in scoring position, but they said the other night that his avg with the bases loaded is .167. That said he may have a good avg with men in scoring position. Some guys can handle the pressure with men in scoring position where others can't.
But "meh" isn't good... It's not worst position player in baseball... but also not worthy of being in the line-up as a given every day. Carter has been terrible overall - minus the past two weeks. And even when you include the past two weeks, he still ranks as one of the worst everyday players in baseball. And why is that considered valuable? I would argue his low lows are more frequent and longer-lasting than his high highs. I just don't think you can justify the wild inconsistency. To have no feel, night to night, what Carter might show up makes it difficult to build a line-up.
I don't subscribe to the "pressue" component; it's a silly, antiquaited idea, IMO. In fact, you could argue it's *easier* to hit with men on base because if anyone's feeling any pressure, it's the pitcher, who can't afford to put more men on base and therefore has to be extra careful, shrinking his margin for error considerably. Bottom line: assuming ample opportunities (ie men on base), if you can hit, you will drive in runs because, again: you can hit. Not bowing to pressue, even if such an idea existed (it doesn't) is not a *skill.* You can't learn and refine the practice. Nor is timing a skill, and timing (ie coming up a lot with men on base) is a big component of RsBI.
Meh is good enough to play every day....just not play well. Not everyone is good enough to be a good everyday player, but Carter is good enough to be a below average everyday player. Saying Carter has been terrible overall minus the last two two weeks is as disingenuous as saying he's been batting over .800 in OPS since April 21. Both are true statements, but you are cherry picking a time frame with a small sample size to meet your conclusion. Overall, Carter has been a slightly below average hitter for this season. However, there is not enough data from this season to show that he's going to be a below average hitter for the rest of the season. Taking all the data from his career into context, one would think he's likely to still be better than average hitter the rest of the season. Edit: He could easily fall flat on his face though, too.
Once a viable replacement for Carter presents itself... he can and should be replaced. Till then, he's the best everyday option at 1B. Singleton is obviously that guy... but he's still as big of an unknown as he was last year. He's cooled off at AAA now... and he seems to have the same profile of being ultra-streaky,w without the track record of success at the MLB level that Carter has shown.
First, kudos for using RsBI. Scenario 1 - Altuve is batting with the bases loaded, down by 2, 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th. Scenario 2 - Altuve is batting with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 8th and the Astros have a 10 run lead. Do you think Altuve has the same mindset in each scenario and he doesn't feel more pressure in the first scenario? In the same scenario, don't you think that a veteran who has been in that situation throughout his career will handle it better than a rookie?
Sure; his approach will change, based on the situation - but that can literally happen within the context of a single at-bat as dictated by the count. Players don't have the same approach up 2-0 as they do when down 0-2. But it's still rooted in their ability to hit. Good hitters make the proper adjustments; bad ones do not. As for veteran/rookie - I don't see how experience can be labeled a skill. Do I think, say, Altuve is a better bet to get a hit in a run-producing sitation tonight than... Carlos Correa making his MLB debut? Sure. But, assuming both players play to their potential, do we think it'll be the same choice in a year or two? No. We'd prefer, what? The better of the two hitters come up in that situation. Here's the bottom line: if Altuve is a career .300 hitter, then in any given circumstance, we should expect him to get a hit 30% of the time. If he happens to, in specific sitations, succeed 50% of the time.... it's probably a component of sample size and likely to eventually level out. There is absolutely no skill - other than generally being able to hit - associated with driving in runs. The batter has no impact on the manager setting the line-up or creating the run-scoring opportunity. He doesn't even really have control over the run scoring - that's a component of defensive-alignment, speed, coaching... (unless he hits a HR, of course...) Obviously, you have to score runs to win so batting runners in has value. I just don't think it necessarily has as much individual value as it once did. Look at it this way: if Chris Carter bats 9th, will he have as many RsBI if he bats 4th, assuming no drop-off in production? Of course not: the 6-7-8 hitters are far less likely to be on the base than the 1-2-3. So if Carter does what Carter does, the line-up has a much greater impact on his run production; so why do we ascribe that value to Carter?
So, you do not think that any given player, might deviate from their usual pattern due to the pressure of a situation? You don't think, they may squeeze the bat (or ball) a bit tighter than normal? You don't think their muscles may be more taut than normal? They may sweat a bit more? Breathe a bit harder? Isn't that the definition of a pressure situation? And all of those things may lead them to be a 25% hitter instead of a 30% hitter? Athletes "choke" on a regular basis. They perform in a different way when the situation is more dire. I guarantee you a golfer feels more pressure on a 4 foot putt to win a tournament than they do on a 4 foot putt to finish 40th. A kicker feels more pressure on a 40 yard kick to win a game as opposed to a 40 yard kick to extend a 4th quarter lead to 35-3. A hitter feels more pressure with the game on the line than they do in a blowout. Pressure exists.
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Keep in mind, it was seaclubber1016 who tried to sell the idea that, save for "2 bad weeks," complaints about Carter have been "unwarranted." That was disingenuous. The much more accurate (though admittedly still incomplete) story of Carter's season is actually the exact opposite; that other than these past 2 weeks, he's been terrible. And that stretch encompasses the first month and a half of his season, or 25% of it. Further, even with those two weeks added back in, he would still rank among the worst everyday players in baseball. No... Chris Carter has not been "a slightly below average hitter." Among players with at least the same # of PAs (199), Carter ranks 73rd out of 84 everyday players, and 19th out of 19 1B/DH.
That may be true for most players, but I suspect some are different. We know certain pitchers are awesome in the 7th or 8th, but struggle as a closer. We know some great closers (Wager and Valverde come to mind) struggle when not in a save opportunity. Carter this year has a bit of an insane split between no-one-on and men-on-base, but he also has a 0.100 OPS split over his career, and that covers 600ABs in each situation. And while the splits have been narrower, he also has a positive split in every individual season of his career. Luck wouldn't suggest 6-for-6 in that regard. No men on: 892 ABs, 0.203 AVG, 0.715 OPS Men on base: 623 ABs, 0.242 AVG, 0.821 OPS It could be any number of reasons. It could even be due to things out of his control - maybe the pitcher fears his power and pitches him differently or what not. But the larger the sample size, the less "luck" is a good explanation.
I would suggest that, given a large enough sample size, a .300 hitter will eventually succeed 30% of the time in any given circumstance. Generally, their ability to make a 4-foot putt, or kick a 40-yard FG, or get a hit should be the same, regardless of the situation. Sure, there are players who are overwhelemd by a moment. I probably overstated my point. I just don't think players get *better* in pressure situations. I think, if given 1,000 "pressure" at-bats, Jose Altuve will eventually get a hit 30% of the time (assuming he's a career .300 hitter).
Just as disingenuous as seal's comment as you are only picking data that supports your position. You disregard recent data for older data. He disregarded older data of about the same length in time. You are gerrymandering 4 or so weeks of average hitting with 2 horrible weeks. I will say I thought Carter's RC+ was about 95 which would be slightly below average for qualified hitters (about 5% less than average). He's at 89 or about 11% below average for a hitter. Sorry for adding the slightly. I did not say 1B. I did not limit my comment to guys about his plate appearances. Carter is going to slump. He's going to have meh periods. He's going to have hot periods. Carter's history shows that half a season of data is not very representative of a season's worth of data. Using in-season data for Carter is not very representative of his true value much less your and seal's use of partial in-season data to show he either sucks or is great. Carter's history shows he deserves to be an everyday player in the majors. He's been below average overall this season, but that is heavily weighted on two bad weeks. Those happened. Carter will likely recover. I don't expect Carter to be 2014 second half Carter for his career, but I'm not going to let two horrible weeks and 4-5 meh weeks significantly affect how I view Carter.
Considering batting average stabilizes for most players around 900 ABs, there is still a lot of "luck" in those numbers, but that is likely a wide enough gap that "luck" isn't only factor.
I don't agree that there is "no skill" in RsBI. Hitting behind the runner, waiting for a pitch you can drive, etc. More to it than just trying to get on base.
