That's a fan's POV; GMs don't think like fans. They understand - and respect - a player's body of work, and they'd be smart enough to understand Carter's past results and future potential. I don't think his current lack of production would damage his value too significantly. The big concern is giving up on him before he does turn it around and Singleton falling flat on his face. But, again, with Gattis on board, they have multiple options (once Lowrie's back) to possibly cover for Singleton busting again.
Very much agree with you. The GM's look at a body of work. And that perspective generally has more positive results than not! One of the Reason that seemingly all-world prospects are consistently traded for aging veterans on the down turn of their careers. The ML level of baseball is a whole different animal. To have consistent success even though sporadic, means something! It means that a player has it, but can they consistently make the adjustments to keep it up. When players have been there and done it, GM's give them the benefit of the doubt. Carter should have value. Much like Adam Dunn has had value even though he continually hit dreadfully and hasn't batted above .220 since 2011. You don't have many 30+ HR type players in the Majors. And Carter corrects that a bit by his at least moderate pitch selectiveness with his decent walk rate. I think Carter could bring in a few quality prospects. But right now, the Astros need guys that have a veteran presence. And Carter has it.... Maybe there is a trade in the works, and that is why it sounds that Singleton might be on his way up. But I would not be surprised to see Singleton being the one shipped out.
I disagree wholeheartedly that it's a "fan's POV". I think a GM would realize that Carter in his current season-long slump has lower value across the league, and would be able to pay less for him. I don't think we could get a ton for him right now. If he actually turns it on, he would have more suitors and that demand would require people to pay "true value" for him.
That's how it works in fantasy baseball (which, as a former fantasy baseball player, I say with 100% sincerity; you could absolutely trade for Carter right now for $.50 on the dollar and it'd likely be a huge bargain). In the real world, however, if an actual MLB GM wanted Chris Carter, it'd be because Carter has the potential to hit 30 HRs and slug .500 - and that potential costs plenty. He might be a smidge cheaper today - but not by much. And whatever the slight difference might be, frankly, isn't worth the 80-100 PAs you'd have to wait before installing Singleton.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Evan Gattis is hitting .264 with nine homers and 29 RBIs in his last 30 games.</p>— Brian McTaggart ⚾️ (@brianmctaggart) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/603729857902747648">May 28, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I mean, I know what you're saying. I just disagree. I think barring a significant need (and one just presented itself in STL, so I think the tides may have turned), I think GMs recognize that Luhnow is faced with some issues in Carter. It's game theory...if I, as another GM, believe everyone will low-ball on Carter, then it helps me. Everyone knows they could be in a position of advantage here, so they take it. Basically my point is that everyone knew that Luhnow was selling Carter, was ready to bring up Singleton, and that Carter was in a slump. Anyone would take advantage of that and push Luhnow, until information came out (Adams' injury) that changed the balance of power in this.
The way it works is how motivated either the seller or buyer is. if anything diminishes Carters value is the pending prospect moves. how soon can Singleton and Correa come up!
The first two could certainly squeeze Carter's trade value. The later is a fluctuating dynamic that doesn't (IMO) move the needle significantly. By the very nature of their interest, a team is acknowledging that they value Carter, all but dismissing his current lack of production. I mean, they're not trading in hopes he'll suck the life out of their line-up by posting a near-league worst .600 OPS; they hope he hits 30 HRs and slugs .500 - and Luhnow will base his trade parameters on that potential.
Cardinals need a 1b with Adams injured. They have Mark Reynolds, if they see Carter as improvement, then it could be a trade partner. Now, they would probably go after Trumbo first.
I don't think GMs weight a slump as much as a fan, but Carter's value is tied heavily to frequency of hot streaks and slumps. His current slump does help define his value as it accounts for a significant percent of his MLB experience. Acknowledging that Carter has value, does not acknowledge that a team expects/hopes Carter hits 30 homers and slugs 0.500. Carter is likely a slightly below average player when both his hot streaks and cold streaks are taken into account. I suspect Luhnow will try to acquire a slightly below average player's value in a trade if he has confidence in Singleton being better than a slightly below average player.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="ht" dir="ltr">Evan Gattis, April: .164/.197/.288, .213 BABIP Evan Gattis: May-June: .275/.302/.615, .263 BABIP</p>— Thickie Don (@AstrosCounty) <a href="https://twitter.com/AstrosCounty/status/605718244779917312">June 2, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Carter has an .800 OPS since April 21st. Gattis has become a run producing machine. We often fall victim to over using the advanced numbers, but there's a lot to be said for simply bringing guys home with the old school RBI. 32 RBI in 31 starts is most impressive. As expected, people's GARM like panic after 2 bad weeks was completely unwarranted with these 2, baseball is the ultimate marathon not a sprint.
And, one of the best things about baseball....you usually only have to wait one day to recover from a disappointing loss or performance.
Eh... Chris Carter hasn't had "2 bad weeks" - he had a month and a half that was arguably the worst everyday performance in team history (granted, sample size). He has since had 2 good weeks: April 6 - May 14: .559 OPS; .292 SLG May 15 - June 1: .859 OPS; .491 SLG Great, if he's turned it around. But I remain perplexed why anyone would be OK with him being god-awful for nearly 25% of his season. He's not *that* good, and I'd still much rather see if Singleton could be consistently better.
I don't think the RBI has become less valuable; but ascribing it individual value has, in the same way wins for pitcher seems wildly antiquated. There is no skill associated with driving in runs, other than the general skill of being able to hit. In theory, Altuve - if he hit clean-up - could amass a ton of RsBI because he's likely to have significantly more opportunities and, most importantly, he can hit.
Carter was horrible for about 2 weeks. Carter has been amazing for about 2 weeks. (Edit: Is it just confirmation bias or is Carter getting a lot of opposite field hits lately compard to previous seaons?) He has a lot of meh in between with mini cold and hot streaks in between. You lump the meh with the cold streak and it looks like a miserable 25% of the season. You lump the meh with the hot streak and it looks like he has been a good player since 2nd week of the season. Carter is a guy that is likely to have slightly more hot streaks than cold streaks while playing adequate first base or DH. Slightly below average player when offense and defense taken into account, but not everyone can be above average. Carter is the type of guy that it is difficult to take snap shots of in season data to say how good he is (I make this mistake more than I like) as he has huge highs and very low lows.
RBI for me are a retrospective stat. If I am looking at a player that had a 100+ RBI season last year, I am going to be happy with that no matter what. That may not be a fair indicator as to what he may do in the future, but you can't take it away from him. Gattis having an RBI per day for the past month would have been much less likely if he had a low OPS or average, but at the same time, him having a high OPS doesn't also mean that runners were on base. I ramble to say this: RBI are great for a team and player, but they can't be used as a predictive stat. That may have it lose value in the eyes of stat dudes, but they are important when looking back and judging a season IMO.
I think a lot of it has to do with the perception that his "awful" stretch is over and he should be better the rest of the year.
