[From Mom's Basement] The Rockets, The Recession and NBA Free Agency 2009

Very good article. Real in-depth analysis, especially with Ron and Wafer. I've always been vocal about not resigning Artest to a huge deal. It bubbles down to whether Ron would like long term security, or more money each year. If he goes into the 4-5 year range, I'm guessing that it'll be for MLE type (maybe a little bit more) money. If it's a 3 year deal, or there are team options thrown in, I agree with Rivers (this guy's name is Rivers McCown right?) with the scenario he's giving: 3 years, 20+ million. Those proposing the 5 year 50 million deals are close to delusional. There is little competition out there, any Morey will not throw away money unless absolutely necessary.

Now the Scola situation, we all know he's the most consistent player on the team, and one of the league's most underrated. He works on his craftiness and IQ, not athleticism/hops, so he should maintain his level of play for a pretty long time. Despite the recession, you have to recognize that big men are always at a premium and a hard working guy averaging 12.7/8.7 that knows the system is somebody you always want to lock up. I think we need to lock him up for three/four more years and there will be MLE competition. Four years for say, 25 million does not seem illogical at all.

Regarding the players we can get for McGrady, I respectfully disagree on Danny Granger. I believe that regardless of the circumstances, the Pacers will keep Granger. With his breakout performance this season (he's averaging 24.8 ppg), and his 4 year, 60 million extension, Danny's one of the best penny for penny value players in the league. This is one contract that you would want to keep, not give away. However, Dunleavy + Troy Murphy still sounds enticing, if you've seen Murphy's performance this season. Whether they are good fits are still the question; a trade like this will solidify our reputation as an unbelievably unathletic team (moreso than the Spurs, you could argue). Kevin Martin is interesting and certainly not impossible. However I'm more interested in Caron Butler and God bless we do not touch Arenas and his huge contract.

Another interesting player I'm interested in Rip Hamilton. Amazing fit, but I'm not sure of the direction Detroit is trying to go. Is it possible that we get a piece of Rip? Dunno.

 

I think we need to be careful about giving scola big money. Gooden was averaging similar to scola and he got cut. I would be suprised if gooden got mle type money.

 

Would any of you guys be willing to throw Brooks in with T-Mac to get a guy like Granger? I think I would bite, but I'd doubt Indy wants to get rid of him.

 

I think the Pacers would love to keep Granger. I think he's been deemed their franchise guy...

At the same time though the Pacers as a franchise NEED money and relief. If it means giving up their franchise guy to save their franchise, I believe they will do it.

I hope the Rox look to add Granger and shop Tmac for him. He's everything we've missed. A tough son of a gun who loves to compete, hits the big shots, and in the closing mins of games drives to the paint and only takes the open three. Hits the clutch shots too.

I think he'd work perfectly with Artest and Yao. He's also a good defender. I'd love Granger or K-Mart, then Caron.

 

Good read -- thanks for posting. Although, I might go into cardiac arrest if his McGrady/Brooks for Arenas/Butler scenario ever took place. Horrible idea. I would kill to get Granger and Martin if they are indeed available though.

 

Did I read that right? Did he propose McGrady/Brooks for Butler/Arenas? I know the Rockets have to go for it before Yao gets too old but no way in hell does Les sign off on taking that disgustingly huge, long contract that belongs to Arenas. At least I hope he doesn't.

 

nice article, and man I am drooling at the possibility of Kevin Martin or Granger in a TMac/Brooks deal

the Wiz deal is interesting at least, but no thanks on Arenas

 

Agreed. Taking on Arena's contract hoping he'd be healthy is exactly like keeping Tmac and hoping he'd be healthy, and Tmac's contract expires next year. I don't see that trade happening.

 

Three points.

1. The economy is bad, but not so bad that the Pacers and Kings will simply dump Granger and Martin for cap relief (David Stern will give bail out money before he lets his league turn into the 1997 Marlins x 10).

2. Ron Artest will NOT sign with the Rockets for merely the MLE. Why? Because he already feels insulted by his current contract. Remember how much he complained last year when he wrongly decided not to opt out? He wants to get paid. And we want a *happy* Artest on our team. Signing him for three years (to expire when he is 32) is ideal.

3. We do not want a lame duck Scola next year. If we can sign him now for value -- you do that before his market value becomes artificially inflated.

The economy may be bad for you and I, but don't drink the Sports Guy's NBA economy kool-aid so readily.

 

The Pacers situation is REALLY bad. It's not something you can just blow off and say "Oh it's not that bad."

Pacers said they will have to make some "very difficult decisions".

 

Wow very very good read, especially coming from someone who probably isn't a Rockets fan (otherwise he'd be drinking the Scola kool-aid like us ). I want to raise some points though:

*He talks like Artest is a logical, rational human being. Artest is anything but rational and logical. He's very emotional, and has a very gangsta' and soulja way of looking at things. Because of the market, he probably won't be getting more than the MLE, but knowing him he'll take it as a sign of disrespect if that's all we sign him for. He signed a 7 mill contract before and he was already complaining about it, if we sign him for even less expect him to go ballistic. He might say all the right things, but eventually he'll end up being a cancer, taking all the bad shots and not giving his all on defense. The only way I can see us signing him to a low contract is if we extend the years (4 years or so probably), so then we can justify the low contract with long term security. I just hope DM thinks carefully on the Artest situation. He has a history of lowballing people though, so I don't really know what will happen...

*Scola is worth at least 10 M a year in a good economy. He's been playing 4rth fiddle all year, first with Tmac, Yao, Rafer, and then now with Yao, Artest, Brooks and yet still manages to average 12 and 7. He would average more except that he's pretty unselfish and we have a lot of players who tend to be blackholes in our offense. Just the Lakers game I counted at least 4 times when he open under the basket but no one really recognized it. Scola is a godsend to our squad, and I think its too bad we can't really capitalize on his talent.

*How bad really is the economy? I mean he's talking about giving up Granger for an expiring? We couldn't even move Artest during the deadline, and he's an effective expiring! I could see Martin being up for sale though, and with Sarver being the crap that he is Nash might definitely be moved. Still if DM somehow manages to get Granger for Tmac then book us for a ring in 2-3 years. Granger is one of my fav none rox players. He has leadership, heart, and there is no quit in him. His skills are pretty good as well, kinda' like a middleman's peak Tmac. I'd be willing to give up Tmac, a pick, Landry and Brooks to make it happen. Adelman doesn't play non-starters anyway so front-loading our team is the better option if he's the coach.

*Wafer shouldn't get more than 3 mill a year, maybe 2 mill since its recession and all. Anymore and that would be overpaying. There's only a gabajillion players like him every single year in the league. In fact, a better Wafer clone is gonna be a free agent next year-Matt Barnes. He's coming of a 1 year minimum deal from PHX, and that was pre-recession so I guess we can get him for roughly the same amount next year.

 

Really? HOLY CRAP DM get on the phone right now. Tmac for Granger and their pick! Get it done Morey

Seriously is our expiring contract+Landry and brooks the most attractive trade they can get? I'm wondering because I can't really put a package that can top that. We just might be frontrunners at getting Granger. Wow I'm getting excited lol

 

Granger is better than Martin. He can pass,defend and has shown greater leadership skills. 4 yrs/60 M is a respectable deal. Don't think the Pacers will bite but I'll be satisfied with it. I like Caron too.
Murphy/Dunleavy not for me.
No to an injured Arenas.

Good ideas about Ron. I was looking for this kind of stuff. By the way, can the Rockets use their MLE on another player and re-sign Artest for a 3 to 4 yr deal as well? I guess they might skip it and re-sign Luis if possible. Luis for 4yr 25 M is a good deal,unless they can get something better/younger in return.

 

Economy has hit some teams harder than others of course. But the one team that it has probably hit the hardest has to be the Pacers.

They are borrowing money from the league and you can expect a move to another city or the Pacers to move some of their better paid players.

So moving scrubs isn't going to help the Pacers, moving their best players will. I think they plan on doing everything in their power to STAY in Indiana (at least that is what was said) so Granger is a guy to look at.

Tmac has to be the highest expiring next season, so I hope the Rockets plan to at least try to get him.

Its funny because teams in small markets are suffering the worst...but it almost seems as if Memphis prepared for this as they were dropping players all before this.

 

Murphy/Dunleavy is connected to Granger. You can't have one without the other. I think Granger has the best value contract in the league right now, disregarding the true franchise players (Yao, Duncan, LBJ etc)

 

I would take Murphy/Granger in a heartbeat.

 

Our needs haven't changed over the past five years. We need an all-star caliber PG. Plain and simple. Nash would be a stopgap for a year or so but Morey isn't so shortsighted as to deal for an aging defensive liability like that. My guess is that we cut the fat off the team (T-Mac next year), continue to draft and trade smart, acquiing underrated underpaid and underaged talent with high ceilings, and do what the Spurs have been able to do all these years with low draft picks: stockpile talent, in Europe if necessary, and wait around for the really big one to arrive. The home run deals are out there more than ever now that the economy has become so volatile. With Morey's way, you take no chances until you are absolutely sure that risk has a high probability for the potential reward of a championship.

 

Granger baby!

 

I have a few questions/comments:

1. Why is my blog "assigned to you" and by who is it assigned to you? Glad you're reading, but it's a community and you can help make it better by participating. The most I've seen you do is talk about how great Chuck Hayes is.

2. You have some great analysis there with some insanity sprinkled in. I cannot imagine Indiana trading that contract, an absolute steal in Granger. And on no planet is Kevin Martin the better fit for the Rockets over Granger.

3. 3/21 for Artest would be great, but I think it will be somewhere in between that and what Dave threw out. It's not 2003, but again, the economic world has another 4-5 months to sort itself out. And if there is anything that professional team owners and GMs have taught us, is that the former knows nothing about NBA talent and the latter knows nothing about money.

4. I'm a big Agent Zero fan, but there is no chance, without Arenas coming back and showing something this year, that the Daryl Morey is that stupid. None.

5. You completely nullified the Landry/Scola contract argument yourself. Landry was on one knee and the boy genuis made sure everyone really believed that. Scola will get good contract offers. It would truly benefit the Rockets to lock him up until they think he will be done. Landry is not a similar player to Scola, they aren't even close to the same player. There is a very clear reason why Scola is the starter, he's the better player in every way except athleticism, it's not close.

6. You're a good writer, I appreciate that.