Florida and early return info?

I don't have any actual info, but this survey:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bba017dd-78f0-480d-84a4-7a104f37bc6a

breaks down early actual voters. If the poll is to be believed, actual early voters favored McCain 36-31 over Romney while likely voters today favored Romney 31-30 over McCain. It suggests that 25% of people voted early.

 

I saw a poll last night that showed Romney with a 5% lead among early voters. It almost seems like every poll is saying something different so who can tell anymore?

 

I think they are very careful on this kind of stuff for Florida because a small portion of Florida's panhandle is in a later time zone. They don't want early returns from voting districts that ended an hour earlier to influence people in places where the polling places are still open. IIRC, they may even have a law against broadcasting early returns before all the polling places close.

If you are watching CNN or Faux News tonight, they will likely mention this and make note of why they are having to wait. The good part is that 85% percent of Florida will get an hour head start on the count.

Here is the latest polling data I found on the web all for the 27th.

McCain Romney
32% 34%
28% 27%
32% 31%
31% 31%
30% 27%
31% 32%
32% 31%

 

Definitely true. NH and SC for the Dems showed how much fluctuation there is in this race and how unreliable the polls can be at this point. So many people seem to be making their decision within the 2-3 days before the election that te polls aren't super-helpful. Tonight will be interesting.

Maybe they'll tie, right down to the last voter. How great would that be?

 

Now we see who Roger Clemens has endorsed.

I Wanna Pitch!!! ROCKET! ROCKET!

 

Go Mitt!!! Or McCain. Or Rudy or Huck. I'd actually love to run against any of these guys.

I'm a junkie for this stuff and I always want to know who's up and down so I love polls but I think it's time to finally acknowledge they are less reliable than they've ever been in the past. Even when any number of polls says the same thing, they can be very, very wrong as they were in NH. I think cell phones have effectively killed the polling industry.

 

I thought Claude Pepper was dead.

In contested races, early voters very often diverge from the final results.

 

You've probably said this a bunch, but who do you like Batman?? Which of the candidates do you want to become the next president??

 

go here:

[rquoter]First (?) Wave of Florida Exits, Revealed

The first wave of exit poll numbers, including absentees: McCain 34.3 percent, Romney 32.6 percent, Giuliani 15.3 percent, Huckabee 12 percent.

UPDATE: Interestingly a second source — yes, guardians of the exit poll data, I have not one but two spies within your ranks! — tells me these are the "second wave" numbers.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Adam notes, "I also noticed the political trading markets pop a bit toward Romney right after 5 o'clock. Romney had been trading in the high 30s and now he's mid-40s."[/rquoter]

 

I too would love to see "no clear winner" tonight from the republicans.

To the convention!



But a mention must be made of the incredible fall of the Republican standard bearer.

It is breathtaking in its scope the way Rudy Giuliani has fallen from the national lead he enjoyed just a few months ago.

This was supposed to be the Republican standard bearer for 08? The man that would lead republicans to the White House for another 8 years?

My how the mighty have fallen.

Who’s left to pick up the republican mantle?



Who would want it?

 

The real question tonight is...

Will the democrats (who didn't campaign in the state and whose delegates mean nothing) have more voters in their primary than the republicans.

trends say yes!

 

You mean they actually count absentee ballots in Florida? I thought that was against the rules in that state since the 2000 election?

 

South Carolina was way off, too, no one called that within fifteen points.

Why cell phones? Because they don't get polled? Something is off, but intermittently, its weird. I think that inconsistent reinforcement is good for the system, actually, keeps people involved until the game is done, less garbage time.

I think we need to have a roll call on who people are supporting at this point and why without a trash-festival; a CF. net 'who we like and why'. Actually maybe i will start that one. No trashing involved, just who we're are supporting.

Today, I was wondering where you were at this point. I think I know, but am not sure.

 

Huh hmm, the party that cried over voter disenfranchisement loud in 2000 is shamelessly disfranchising the same bloc of voters 8 years later.

Telling

 

Like wnes, for instance, i am wondering who he/she is supporting and why.

 

I think a large part of is the number of voters who are deciding so late. In SC, those people went something like 60% Obama, 15% Clinton - and it was a good chunk of the electorate. So the polls may accurately describe the situation at the time, but things are so fluid that it changes by election day. Most reports in NH suggest that Clinton's "tear" the day before the election had a huge impact - but none of the polls could really show that. Who really knows what's going on. We already learned in 2004 that the exit polling industry has a problem. Maybe this will be the election that the regular polling industry joins them.

I wish one major candidate would go to his voters and say "make something up" if a pollster calls you. That would destroy all polling and you'd actually have to wait until election day to determine the results.

 

CBFC, here are a couple of pop quizzes for you. Who said the following?

And who said this?

 

My guess would be Barack Obama, and when I say guess, I mean I googled it, I hope that is cool.

In all earnestness, can I ask who are you supporting?