Best game O’Brien has coached. Didn’t really see any clock management issues. Made aggressive play calls, and didn’t do the same conservative BS he always does. Love the call to put the game away with Watson’s arm. You got to ride and die with your best player. With how easily the Texans were shredding their defense I was surprised Reid punted it to us. For once OBrien wasn’t out coached. Maybe we can win with him.
Great coaching job by BOB. He's going to have to string a few more of these together before I'm back on board.
Not complaining at all, but just out of curiosty, since I didn't see it, how was the interference call he challenged? Was it challengeable?
I'm sure this has been discussed in various threads, but I'm just showing up here right now. Was this a good call? I know the result was good. I know Fairbairn was struggling. But still... I'm not sold. I wonder what the stats would say? All that said, given he made the call to go for it, he's clearly getting better on the actual play to call. That was a good play call.
What I was saying is that three teams are currently tied at 4-2; absent a clear H2H winner, the next tiebreaker is conference record. That's important because guess who one of the Ravens' conference losses is to?..... They're currently tied; granted six games is not 16 - but I wouldn't label that "unlikely." If Baltimore beat the Texans, conference record would be the tiebreaker.
Yes. Forget any and everything else - if you have Deshaun Watson, you put the game in his hands. Worst case scenario, the Chiefs roar back to tie. Also, remember: they had set this play up earlier - going deep on their earlier 4th and 1. I think that put KC a bit on their heels and Hopkins was able to sneak underneath. I sincerely hope this wasn't a reaction to Fairbairn and instead a sign BO'B is starting to get it.
Unless I am misreading the conference tie breaking rules, head to head among two teams is the first criteria. Based on conference record, with the exception of the Patriots, the Texans currently own the tiebreaker on every single AFC team.
Cool; let's definitely talk about that RIGHT NOW because it absolutely seems like the most important thing to discuss RIGHT NOW.
I'm not sure why you're fixated on this... They are currently in a THREE-WAY tie with Kansas City and Baltimore for the second-best record (among division leaders) in the conference, thus, in my "if season ended today" scenario, the Texans would be the #2 seed based on conference record. I was merely pointing out they're building an advantage over likely, end of year competition.
I don't know. If the team was 10 or 15 yards closer, one can assume they go for the FG. Certainly, there's some yard line where the team goes for a field goal. And the only reason not to then is because of lack of faith in the kicker - meaning there's definitely a yardage line for every team where you go for the FG. the worst case scenario is the same in both cases. the best case scenario is effectively the same in both cases. a quick google search, images is best: https://www.google.com/search?q=nfl+field+goal+percentage+by+distance&tbm=isch&source=univ&sa=X&ved= Definitely looks like go for it can make sense. then factor in the lack of faith in the kicker. I don't think the earlier 4th down would have impacted this one much - given it was effectively we need three yards at the game is over. All said though, I definitely get your point for this franchise. they've had DW walk off the field with a 4th quarter lead late in the game only to blow it over and over. Give DW a chance to solidify the win. It makes sense and given this team, this kicker, this defense and most importantly, this QB, I capitulate... the right call!
Had you pointed out your rationale for including Baltimore rather than making a condescending reply to me questioning Baltimore, I wouldn't be "fixated". At face value, 6 games into a 16 game season, when they have yet to play each other, doesn't provide much of a tie breaker advantage.
I disagree. I'm sure there are math probabilities, etc - but from a sheer common sense perspective - at least my own - if you convert the 4th down, your win probability is 100%. Every other scenario is less than 100% because you cede control of the game to the Chiefs. Additionally, every yard you move closer to their goal line is one more yard they have to gain to tie the score. So - again, I'm sure there are math models - but for me, the closer I got, the more apt I'd be to go for it. I mean, ultimately, the right call is the one that wins the game. But I think the "right" call is to keep it in Deshaun's hands - and out of Mahomes'.
We're talking hypothetical now, cause I conceded that in that position, with these teams and QBs, I agree. But if it's 4th and 3 say at the 15 yard line, I don't see how you don't kick the FG. Cause while you're math might be correct, that it'd be 100% vs. 99% or whatever, the other side of the equation, the risk side, at that point, would be higher on the go for it than the FG attempt. SO if I'm looking for alpha - excess return given the risk profile - at some point the best alpha is in kicking the FG.
Honestly, I would've thought it fairly obvious why I had mentioned conference record given that all 3 teams are a) good; b) in the same conference. And, for the record, I'd label it more, "playful smart ass with a dash of winkwink" than "condescending" - but... you know...... Again, I would've thought this was fairly intuitive as records are cumulative... I guess I'll ask you which do you think is more advantageous after six games: 4-0 or 3-2? Or do you not think those wins matter?...
I'm sure the field goal would be higher probability than the fourth down conversion. But considering that Fairbairn was having a bad day, it didn't bother me too much.
well right now they actually should be planning for the future. Texans have gone all in now and gotten better this year, but likely lose free agents over the next couple years and lack draft capital. O'Brien may have turned the corner as an offensive coach finally, but not as a GM IMO