[Feigen/MacMahon] CP3 wants to make a case for PJ Tucker for All Defensive team

?? You said "bullet dodged." My point is that no bullet was dodged - we missed an opportunity. Whether it hurts us in the long run or not (which is really where it matters - can we beat GSW or not. Regular season accolades are meaningless at this point) remains to be seen, but we shouldnt kid ourselves about it being a missed chance to upgrade our team, and that we lost out on it because we were unwilling to commit to a minutes guarantee.

 

I dont agree that Kief is a missed opportunity. He did not want to be in Houston.

 

P.J. gets a "honorable mention" from Kevin Pelton.

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26453070/nba-awards-picks-best-defenders-league

Spoiler

NBA awards picks: The best defenders in the league

As player-tracking data has caused a proliferation in the statistics available to evaluate NBA players, part of the challenge is figuring out exactly what the new metrics mean. That's particularly true at the defensive end of the court, where traditional box score stats have always come up wanting. But the new metrics aren't always an upgrade or might not have the assumed meaning.

Consider the case of deflections, tracked by the NBA the past few seasons as part of their "Hustle Stats" on NBA Advanced Stats.

Long a favorite of coaches who want their players to be active on defense, deflections have been cited as part of the case that James Harden is underrated defensively and Paul George is one of the league's best defenders. (They rank 1-2 in total deflections.)

However, as I noted on Twitter recently, the interesting thing about deflections is that they tend to track steals almost perfectly. So if Harden and George are already getting credit for their steal rates -- typically also mentioned in these arguments -- adding in deflections is essentially double-counting the same skill. (Deflections are useful in situations where players are turning an unusually low percentage of their deflections into steals. That's not the case for either George or Harden; they're getting more steals than you'd expect based on their deflections.)

So, alas, you won't find any references to deflections in the breakdown of my All-Defensive teams, based on a combination of stats and watching players throughout the season. Instead, I rely more heavily on the defensive ratings of ESPN's real plus-minus, how teams perform with and without the player on the court, block and steal rates and opponent shooting percentages inside five feet (also featured on NBA Advanced Stats using camera-tracking data from Second Spectrum). With that in mind, let's take a look at my picks.

Point guard

First team: Derrick White, San Antonio Spurs

For the second consecutive season, a Spurs point guard makes my first team. Last season, that was Dejounte Murray, whose ACL injury opened the door for White to start at the point. No player shorter than 6-foot-6 has blocked shots more frequently than the 6-4 White, and San Antonio's starting five was far more effective defensively with him at the point.

Because both White and Murray have the size to defend both guard spots, they should form one of the league's top defensive backcourts next season.

Second team: Eric Bledsoe, Milwaukee Bucks

Bledsoe's first partial season in Milwaukee is best remembered for his inability to stop Terry Rozier in the Bucks' seven-game playoff series loss to the Boston Celtics. He returned more motivated, and his combination of strength and ability to pressure ball handlers has been a key part of the NBA's best defense.

Bledsoe's unique defense against Harden, all but begging the Rockets' guard to drive right rather than with his favored left hand, could be a template for other teams in the playoffs.

Honorable mention: Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers; Cory Joseph, Indiana Pacers; Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors

Ball's value was most obvious in his absence. Since he suffered a season-ending ankle sprain on Jan. 19, the Lakers have been a bottom-10 defense.

The Pacers have been far better defensively with Joseph at the point than smaller starter Darren Collison.

Lowry's willingness to sacrifice his body in pursuit of charges (he's tied for fifth in the league with 23) borders on reckless, but it helps make him a strong defender for an undersized player.

Shooting Guard

First team: Danny Green, Toronto Raptors

Underappreciated in San Antonio, Green has helped the Raptors to a top-five defensive rating. His plus-2.3 defensive RPM leads all guards. Perhaps no longer quite as effective against smaller, quicker guards as in his prime, Green has been able to focus on defending shooting guards in Toronto. There, his size (6-6) and agility cause problems for opponents.

Second team: Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

No regular starter expends more energy on defense than Smart, who seems to will himself into position to thwart opponents' plays. In addition to effort, that also requires strong pattern recognition from Smart, who excels at gambling defensively when the odds are in his favor. His steal rate ranks second in the league behind that of Chicago Bulls reserve Shaquille Harrison.

Honorable mention: Bruce Brown, Detroit Pistons; Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans; Royce O'Neale, Utah Jazz

One of the most polished defenders to come into the league in recent memory, Brown has started throughout his rookie season despite shooting 26 percent on his 3s because he can capably guard much bigger opponents.

Holiday shined defensively in the 2018 playoffs, and his versatility to defend small forwards allowed the Pelicans to start 6-4 E'Twaun Moore on the wing alongside him.

Even as his offense has developed in his second NBA season, O'Neale's defensive effort hasn't waned. He's one of the league's best at navigating screens to defend players without the ball.

 

Spoiler

Small Forward

First team: Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder

George will surely get some first-place votes for Defensive Player of the Year, an especially high honor for a wing player. At 6-9, George can do a little of everything necessary to defend on the perimeter. He has the size to switch or swallow up smaller opponents, is diligent defending high scorers without the ball and also is attentive to opportunities to freelance. The latter skill helps produce one of the league's best steal rates.

Second team: Robert Covington, Minnesota Timberwolves

Had Covington stayed healthy, I would have had to find room for both him and George on my first team. That's how well Covington was playing defensively. The Timberwolves, otherwise a defensive disappointment throughout the past decade, defended at a top-five level with Covington on the court after acquiring him midseason.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers missed Covington badly despite replacing him with a quality defender in Jimmy Butler. Covington leads all perimeter players in defensive RPM, ahead of George, so I think it's reasonable to argue he contributed more defensive value in his 1,203 minutes than other small forwards did in twice as many.

Honorable mention: Kyle Anderson, Memphis Grizzlies; Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors; Josh Richardson, Miami Heat

Typically, RPM ratings are more unreliable when players change teams, but Anderson repeated as one of the league leaders defensively at small forward in a completely different system than the one he played in with the Spurs.

Meanwhile, the player he backed up in San Antonio ranks 46th among small forwards in defensive RPM. As Ben Falk broke down in a subscription piece on Cleaning the Glass, this is partially due to the same bad luck with opponent 3-point shooting that also befell Leonard in 2016-17 (with the opposite result in between, demonstrating the stat's randomness). In general, the former Defensive Player of the Year didn't have the same kind of defensive impact this season. However, in clutch situations, he's still capable of locking down opponents.

Richardson is one of the league's best at the "rearview contest" from behind when trailing the play. His length has also been valuable in the zone the Heat have employed regularly to effect.

Power Forward

First team: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

The best defender on the league's best defense, Antetokounmpo too will get strong Defensive Player of the Year consideration. (I'd put him second on my ballot, with George third.)

His ability to protect the rim as well as virtually any center allowed coach Mike Budenholzer to play smaller players like Ersan Ilyasova and D.J. Wilson alongside in the frontcourt with little defensive drop-off. As a power forward next to Brook Lopez, Antetokounmpo has more rein to freelance as a help defender.

Second team: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

Despite dropping to 10th in the league in defensive rating, the Warriors remain a top-tier defense with Green on the court, and he finished a hair ahead of Antetokounmpo in defensive RPM. Still, some signs of slippage are evident in Green's defense. Once a strong rim-protector at 6-7, Green has been only slightly better than league average in that regard this season.

Honorable mention: Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz; Paul Millsap, Denver Nuggets; PJ Tucker, Houston Rockets

Few players are asked to play two defensive roles more different than Favors, who has to chase power forwards to the perimeter when playing with Rudy Gobert, and then anchor the Jazz defense when Gobert sits. He particularly excelled at center this season, allowing the league's lowest percentage within five feet of any player who defended at least 100 such shots per Second Spectrum tracking.

A full season from Millsap has been a key factor in Denver's defensive improvement this year that's put them near the top of the West standings.

Tucker's ability to switch on smaller opponents is key to Houston's defensive scheme.

Center

First team and Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

For the second consecutive year, no defender has meant more to his team than Gobert, around whose 7-1 frame coach Quin Snyder has built the league's second-best defense. Even with opponents searching for ways to pull Gobert out of the paint, he's among the leaders in shots defended in the restricted area. And when the below-average percentage opponents shoot on those attempts is factored in based on Second Spectrum data, Gobert has saved more points with his rim protection than any other player.

Moreover, Gobert's fearsome paint defense allows Utah's perimeter players to stay home on shooters, meaning no team gives up 3-point attempts less frequently than the Jazz. Add it up and Gobert is key to taking away the two most efficient types of shots in the league, making him Defensive Player of the Year again.

Second team: Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks

For all the attention his 3-point shooting has gotten at the other end, Lopez has arguably meant more to Milwaukee on defense -- where the Bucks have improved far more this season than they have offensively. Opponents have actually shot slightly worse within five feet against Lopez (52.7 percent) than against Gobert (53.3 percent).

Don't underestimate the value of Lopez's ability to box out opponents. (He's No. 6 in defensive boxouts per 48 minutes, also tracked on NBA Advanced Stats.) Though his own rebound rate ranks in the bottom 10 since 1970-71 for a 7-footer per Basketball-Reference.com, Milwaukee ranks second in defensive rebounding largely because Lopez clears the way for teammates (like Antetokounmpo) to swoop in for boards. The Bucks rebound better as a team with Lopez on the court.

Honorable mention: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers; Nerlens Noel, Oklahoma City Thunder; Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

Because of his dominant presence and the way the Sixers drop off defensively without him, Embiid will almost certainly appear on most voters' All-Defensive teams. However, his rim protection hasn't quite been as strong as Gobert's and Lopez's, and Philadelphia's weak defensive backup centers are a big factor in the on/off differential. As a result, Embiid lags other contenders (including Turner, anchoring the league's third-best defense) in RPM.

Noel has long frustrated his coaches with his tendency to overpursue defensively. Yet his teams consistently give up fewer points with him on the court, which is sort of the goal. Noel is so athletic that he can turn those gambles into valuable steals (his steal rate is fifth best among players with 1,000 minutes) and still protect the rim (opponents have made just 51.9 percent of their attempts within five feet against Noel, better than both Gobert and Lopez).

 

The turning point of rockets season was January rockets/Lakers 20 point come back when James Ennis ended lonzo ball career with the Lakers!

It was a early Saturday game before the super bowl.

The pj Tucker dunk on kuzma during the comeback was just as epic as harden three long range bombs to get to overtime.

 

No room for Tucker.

Projected All NBA First Team Defense:

C: G. A.
PF: Giannis A.
SF: G. Amtetokounmpo
SG: The Greek Freak
PG: Giannis Amtetokounmpo

Guards all 5 positions.

 

and watnot.