I expect this team to continue the trend of losing to the teams we are predicted to lose to, and vice versa. I don't expect the NFC South to be an easy cakewalk as well. All of those teams aren't very great, but the one advantage they have over the Texans is their continuity at the QB position(If you also count the Bucs). Arguably, their QBs match up better than ours in every situation, so I think QB play will be key for both sides during those games. I expect Alfred Blue to take a larger step this season. In pretty much all the games Arian Foster was injured, we lost, so Blue's development from last season to this one is going to be critical. He was one of the worst backs in the league when it came to YPC and YAC, and that cannot fly if we expect to win games without Arian.
This sentence confuses me... you're aware Mallett and Hopkins were both on the team last year? Granted, limited action for Mallett, sure - but he's not by any means starting from scratch. And if by "new WR" you meant Strong, well - that's sort of silly since BOB has already (reportedly) indicated that WR2 is going to see a diminished role this year.
I think the thing that is lost on a lot of people is that Mallet joined the Texans only one week before the start of the season. That's not just missing an entire training camp, as if you're injured, and have constant contact with the coaches and access to the playbook. Then he comes in 10 weeks later and spanks the best pass defense in the NFL on the road before blowing out his boob in the weight room. I want to be cautious with my optimism, but I'm really looking forward to what a max capacity Mallet can do for us this year.
Always been a big fan of Mallet, I think he has star potential. The fact that NE let him go so easily is a question mark. Hope he stays healthy and we get to see what he can do. Got to be better than Fizzle. I resent that we had to endure him for almost a season.
They only had three on their roster, and Keyshawn Martin is not making the team. From just a depth perspective, it was a top priority. They're essentially throwing a bunch of stuff they hope some of which will stick to the wall.
This is exactly why I have high hopes for him as well. I say this in all honesty, and with a straight face, but in his career, I expect Mallett to make at least one Pro Bowl, if not more.
Projected AFC standings: Dolphins new favorites with Brady suspended With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2015 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of different variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation. But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2015 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings (found here) and then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators. Monday, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2015. Tuesday, we'll do the NFC. Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you seeking a little more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Minnesota is No. 1) to the easiest (Atlanta). When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2015, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2015." Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities; when you take the average of so many possibilities, all teams end up grouped more towards 8-8 with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. Obviously, the 2015 season will probably have some teams below 5-11 and above 12-4. Projected records may differ slightly from the mock draft article because of a change in rounding mean wins. One thing you may notice in these projections is that the forecasts for 2015 look a lot like the standings for 2014. Yes, every team enters the season with a chance to win, but in recent years it's been very rare for teams to suddenly go from great to terrible (or vice versa) in just one season. No team has made the Super Bowl the year after having a losing record since the 2003 Carolina Panthers. Since 2006, only 10 teams have either won 10-plus games after two straight years of 10-plus losses (Cleveland 2007, Miami 2008, Kansas City 2010, Detroit 2011, Minnesota 2012 and Washington 2012), or vice versa (Minnesota 2010, Indianapolis 2011, Houston 2013 and Atlanta 2013). AFC South Indianapolis Colts: 10-6 (10.1 mean wins; SOS: 29) Houston Texans: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 28) Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (6.7 mean wins; SOS: 30) Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (5.7 mean wins; SOS: 26) The AFC South is becoming the shampoo, rinse, repeat division. Once again, we are projecting the Colts to overcome some of their roster holes to win the division thanks to great quarterback play and an easy schedule. The Colts made a number of big free-agent signings this offseason, but things like "32-year-old running back" and "aging future Hall of Fame receiver replacing another aging future Hall of Fame receiver" don't really move the projection needle. Adding an elite pass-rusher does, but does Trent Cole really qualify for that designation after just 14.5 sacks in the past two seasons? Houston should be healthier on defense, and we would all love to see a full season of Jadeveon Clowney, but the Texans are still trying to cobble together an offense out of DeAndre Hopkins, a 29-year-old Arian Foster, and scraps. Our projections see the Titans returning to mediocrity after their dismal 2-14 record in 2014. We're used to the Titans running on a hamster wheel of unexciting 7-9 seasons, and at least this mediocrity will come with hope instead of boredom, thanks to the excellent projection Marcus Mariota got from our QBASE system. This projection may also be a little high, as our numbers don't know that the spread-centric Mariota will probably need a couple of seasons to fully adapt his talents to the NFL game. The Jaguars are adding a lot of pieces on offense, with second-round running back T.J. Yeldon and free-agent tight end Julius Thomas joining a stable of talented Class of 2014 wide receivers who should improve in their sophomore years. Without significant improvement from the quarterback and the offensive line, the Jaguars are likely still doomed to last place. Losing first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr. to a torn ACL on his first day of rookie minicamp doesn't help.
The Texans offense will be better. Upgrade at QB, young OL getting better, and more B'OB guys at skill positions to run his offense
Where, in his reported conversations with Andre Johnson? Who's going to capture all of those receptions, Alfred Blue? One of the stable of excellent pass catching tight ends that the team has assembled? You have perfected the art of talking total nonsense with great authority.
They've lost some players, and gained some players. New players learning new teammates and a new system, not-so-new players learning their new roles and some new teammates. They also have players and coaches with a year's experience with the sytem and each other; I think these will determine how far the team will go. I'm expecting at the very least to match last season's record of 9-7, maybe better.
I don't expect much. I think they overachieved last year and will settle this season back into being a 6 to 8 win team. The offensive line is very questionable, actually the entire offense is questionable to be perfectly honest, but the defense will be good. I just don't see the talent for this to be much more than an average to slightly below average team though. 7-9. Good defense, bad offense, no playoffs. Rick Smith fired at the end of the year.
