ESPN_Kevin Pelton: Rockets Should Trade James Harden

Time is already running out on Harden with the Rockets. In a little more than two years he can walk to any team he wants to play for. This coming summer may determine Harden's future with the Rockets. If we can't build a team that can contend, then the Rockets should see what they can get for Harden. It doesn't make any sense to keep Harden for the next two seasons if we are going to be a borderline playoff team.

 

Yep.... I would trade Adrian Dantley Jr.

I mean James Harden... Same person...

T_Man

 

Well...that article sure was something!

 

I def. agree to that. He's that guy on a podcast that jumps in and says something like Isiah Thomas is a top 3 MVP candidate because of X stat. Yes he has the data to back it up, but I agree that he has no concept of the eye test to balance out what the data says. Its like he hasn't even watched the games to have an objective opinion about anything else than what the data shows.

 

I don't know if you're being serious here, or just blowing off steam here but I couldn't disagree more.

The Astros would have rather had gambled on prime Bagwell than the 2013 Astros entire roster. No team would prefer rebuilding over even a troubled superstar. Look at the Sixers. You think they would take their roster now or Iverson (who was one of the most scrutinized stars of the recent periods)? The Orlando Magic still have not recovered from the loss of Dwight Howard. etc. etc. The list goes on of teams that prefer the years of attaching themselves to am imperfect star other than the alternative of blowing it up.

Taking a chance on an imperfect star player might seem more frustrating than blowing it up and rebuilding but trust me, ITS NOT.

 

Harden's going to walk in 2 years if we make no progress. He's not the type of dude loyal to his franchises. You can tell he is all about fame and partying. He'll want to go to cities like LA or NYC. Our best shot at winning a chip was last year... too bad Morey decided to gamble on Melo instead of just signing Lowry outright.

You can also see why Morey is so desperate to sign KD this off-season because that's the only thing that'll save his job. If by some miracle that happens, we'll still need our third big 3 because literally every other contender is going with the rule of big 3 now surrounded by talented role players. We have no shot of making it back there without building like that.

 

Well, at least the article attempted to backup it's statements with facts. The problem is that they didn't look at all sides.

Yes, when Howard and Harden are on the court together our DefRtg is 106.6 and when Harden is on the court without Howard our DefRtg is 108.7. Valid point, our DefRtg is 2.1 pts worse.

What they didn't mention are these things (per 100 possessions):

Our offensive rating with both Harden and Howard on the court is 105.7. Our offensive rating with Howard on the court without Harden is 100.7. Our OffRtg is 5 pts worse.

Our +/- with Howard and Harden on the floor together is +0.5.
Our +/- with Howard on the floor without Harden is -5.7.
Our +/- with Harden on the floor without Howard is -3.5

In Last years playoffs, Howard shot 63.2% while he was on the court with Harden. In those same playoffs, Howard shot 45.6% while on the court without Harden.

In last years playoffs, our defRtg with both Howard and Harden on the floor was 105.3. When Howard was on the floor without Harden our defRtg was 101.3. So our defRtg was 4.3 pts better with Harden on the bench.

In those same playoffs, our offRtg was 107.1 with both Harden and Howard on the floor. When Howard was on the floor without Harden our offRtg was 97.2. So our offRtg was 9.9 pts worse with Harden on the bench.

The article is also correct that opponents shoot +2.1% higher fg% than normal when directly guarded by Harden. Sounds bad, until you look at the other members of the Rockets:

Terry +8.5,T.Jones +4.9, Brewer +4.1, Harden +2.1, Lawson +1.6, Howard +0.6, Thorton +0.5, Ariza +0.3, Beverley -0.3, Capela -1.6, Harrell -3.5, J. Smith -4.

Our players who are suppose to excel at defense are mostly average to slightly below average and Terry, Jones and Brewer's numbers are 2 to 4 times worse than Harden's.

How about other guards in the league?

Affalo +4.8, Westbrook +4.3, DeRozan +3.8, R. Jackson +3.4, T.Parker +3.3, C. Paul +2.8, R.Rubio +2.5, Harden +2.1.

How does Howard's +0.6 stack up relative to other centers?

Duncan -6.1,Bogut -5.6, P. Gasol -4.7, S.Adams -4.6, A. Davis -4.3,E. Davis -4.2, T. Mozgov -4.1, K. Porzingis -4.1, H. Whiteside -3.5, M. Gasol -3.3, K. Olynyk -3.3, B. Lopez -3.0, C. Zeller -2.3, D. Jordan -2.1, O. Asik -2.0, N. Vucevic -1.8, B. Biyombo -1.7,C. Capela -1.6, D. Cousins -1.5, J. Sullinger -1.2, M. Gortat 1.1, A. Horford -1.1, R. Lopez -1.1, E. Kanter -0.8,KA Towns -0.16,M. Leonard -0.6,J. Okafor -0.2, D. Howard +0.6.

You get a better picture when you look at both sides and compare to the rest of the league.

We are better when both Howard and Harden are on the floor together, no surprise.

If an article is going to mention that opponents shoot +2.1% better when guarded by Harden then shouldn't they also mention those same number for other guards in the league or other players on the Rockets in order to set a baseline?

What those numbers do show is that our guys that are suppose to be strong defensive players have been average at best so far this season. That's a problem because that means that we have multiple players in our rotation that are average to below average on both sides of the ball.

 

agreed, 120%.

 

If Kevin Pelton's article had been on newsprint I wouldn't have used it to pick up dogs**t from the sidewalk in front of my house out of respect for the dogs**t.

 

SMH. Some of you people are insane.

 

Thanks for taking the time to put this together. Paints a picture.

 

I'm a big proponent of trading the beard - I think he's a narcissistic ass and fool's gold who doesn't make his teammates better - but I ain't taking trash....

3 teamer with us ending up with Griffin and Teague works for me... (harden/bev out works salarywise...)

 

Great as usual.

you must spread some reputation around before giving it to aelliott again . :grin:

 

Harden's offensive game is not going to age well - it relies a lot on quickness.

His defense is already poor and I can't imagine that improving with age either.

He is likely as good as he will ever be unless he suddenly finds religion on the defensive end. If the Rockets do feel he is not going to work out here, now is the best time to trade him.

 

The Boston deal you would be crazy not to consider. Thomas and Lee aren't what we are after but that Brooklyn unprotected first round pick may very well be the number 1 overall pick in the draft. Harden for Simmons? I'd do it.

 

That's a team thing.

Nobody can argue Bev and Ariza are the defenders they were last year.

 

If the Rockets trade Dwight, find a good coach, reload in the Summer, and Harden pulls this same #### next season, trade him at the 2017 deadline.

 

How dumb. Harden isn't going anywhere until
Houston gets a bonafide star in return. He can shove his D'Angelo Russell proposals where the sun don't shine.

 

Not only just that. He doesn't even know what correct position the players play and because his stats don't tell him about defence (because advanced stats on defence are still paleolithic) he doesn't even recognise ddfence.

I mean even I as a casual fan that is not my job to write about bball know more than him. That's how shortsighted and idiotic he is.

But oh yeah..according to him Smart is already almost a superstar.

You went into too much trouble to reply to someone of the likes of Pelton.
BUT even if Pelton actually knew his defensive stats (or understood bball) he WOULD KNOW that fg% against is a HORRIBLE almost USELESS STAT that shows nothing and is not indicative of individual defence except if it's in the rim. (and even that with a grain of salt taking into account the amount of perimeter penetration and the defensive sheme).

Oh here is a Boston fan.
Or that pick is more likely to end up being Khris Dunn a 22 year old pg who can't shoot a lick.

 

Either way, ESPN employees will find a way to **** on the Rockets