[ESPN] Wolves, Jazz might reshape the lottery

[rquoter]The 2011 NBA Draft is Thursday, and teams are still trying to figure our their boards. Most teams were up late on Tuesday, poring over data, finalizing draft boards and prepping for Thursday. As you can gather, teams are narrowing down their lists, but few have made actual decisions about who they'll be drafting. Here's the latest:

How the Wolves and Jazz might shape the lottery

Yesterday, we were about 90 percent sure that Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams would be the first two players off the board on Thursday night.

Scratch that. Late Tuesday night, sources told ESPN.com that the Minnesota Timberwolves are strongly considering taking Enes Kanter with the No. 2 pick. Kanter, they believe, is a better fit than Derrick Williams. If the Wolves don't make a trade and do take Kanter, it will shake up the entire draft. At that point it's highly likely that the Jazz would take Williams at No. 3. If the Wolves do take Williams at No. 2, things get much murkier for Utah.

At No. 3, the Jazz aren't sending out any signals as to which way they would go if Williams is not available to them. Jazz general manager Kevin O'Connor is notoriously tightlipped about these things. Often a player's agent doesn't know a player is being drafted by the Jazz until it happens.

What happens at No. 2 and No. 3 can reshape the rest of the lottery. That's not an overstatement. If the Jazz take Brandon Knight (or Kemba Walker), the rest of the lottery probably will play out in a particular way. If they take Williams, Enes Kanter (or Jan Vesely) it will probably play out in a very different way. Get the No. 3 pick wrong and you can kiss your mock draft goodbye.

Here are three scenarios:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Kyrie Irving
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams
3. Utah Jazz: Brandon Knight
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter
5. Toronto Raptors: Kawhi Leonard
6. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesely
7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker
8. Detroit Pistons: Bismack Biyombo or Tristan Thompson
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Chris Singleton
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jonas Valanciunas
11. Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson
12. Utah Jazz: Alec Burks

Look how differently things play out if the Jazz take Kanter at No. 3:

1. Cavs: Kyrie Irving
2. Wolves: Derrick Williams
3. Jazz: Enes Kanter
4. Cavs: Jonas Valanciunas
5. Raptors: Brandon Knight
6. Wizards: Jan Vesely
7. Kings: Kawhi Leonard
8. Pistons: Bismack Biyombo or Tristan Thompson
9. Bobcats: Kemba Walker
10. Bucks: Jonas Valanciunas
11. Warriors: Klay Thompson
12. Jazz: Jimmer Fredette

That's picks No. 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 and 12 all changing. If Williams rather than Kanter slides to No. 3, the picture is similar:

1. Cavs: Kyrie Irving
2. Wolves: Enes Kanter
3. Jazz: Derrick Williams
4. Cavs: Jonas Valanciunas
5. Raptors: Brandon Knight
6. Wizards: Jan Vesely
7. Kings: Kawhi Leonard
8. Pistons: Bismack Biyombo or Tristan Thompson
9. Bobcats: Kemba Walker
10. Bucks: Jonas Valanciunas
11. Warriors: Klay Thompson
12. Jazz: Jimmer Fredette

If Kanter is available and Williams is gone, the question Utah has to ask itself is this: What's a better outcome on Thursday night -- Knight and Singleton or Kanter and Fredette?

Cleveland is praying that neither the Wolves nor the Jazz take Kanter before the Cavs select again at No. 4. If the Jazz do, the Cavs have a problem because after taking Irving at No. 1, they're highly unlikely to take another point guard.

With Kanter off the board, their primary big man option may be Valanciunas. The Cavs love Valanciunas, but as I reported on Monday, he won't be able to play in the NBA next season. On Tuesday night I reported that the Cavs have been talking to the Wizards about a swap of No. 4 for No. 6 and No. 18. But that's contingent on Kanter being there.

Another option for the Cavs would be to take a wing like Kawhi Leonard, Jan Vesely or Klay Thompson (a favorite of Baron Davis).

Things get much easier for the Cavs if the Jazz take Knight. They'll either take Kanter to keep or to use the pick as trade bait to get another asset.

Where will Walker land?

One player who appears to be getting a little lost in the shuffle is UConn's Kemba Walker. While the Jazz are considering him at No. 3, I believe he's behind both Brandon Knight and Enes Kanter on their board.

The Raptors are the next logical landing place for Walker, but they've never been particularly high on him. They've flirted for a while with Vesely, but as I reported on Tuesday, the team appears to be emphasizing defense, as demonstrated by the hiring of coach Dwane Casey. It now appears that either Bismack Biyombo or Kawhi Leonard is the favorite to go No. 5.

The Wizards aren't looking for a point guard at No. 6, which could put Walker in play for the Kings at No. 7. The Kings do like Walker and are considering him alongside Kawhi Leonard, Jimmer Fredette and Alec Burks. Currently we have the Kings selecting Walker in our latest Mock Draft. But he's not a lock to go there, especially with word coming down that the Kings are exploring trade scenarios for established point guards like Tony Parker and Raymond Felton.

If the Kings pass, the Pistons are sitting there at No. 8, and for weeks Walker was strongly in the mix. But after Tuesday's stellar workout by Bismack Biyombo, Tristan Thompson and Markieff Morris, the Pistons are now leaning toward taking a big man at No. 8.

Charlotte is the last team picking in the lottery for which Walker has worked out. The Bobcats have been fans of Walker all year. But he's a small point guard like D.J. Augustin and the Bobcats appear to have become enamored with Chris Singleton and Marcus Morris.

I don't see Milwaukee or Golden State taking him. The Jazz are a possibility at No. 12, but only if they take a big man at No. 3. The Suns are at No. 13, and they will look to trade Steve Nash -- who is entering the final year of his contract -- over the summer, which means Walker could be in the mix. But the Suns are emphasizing defense this year and are smitten with both Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert.

If they don't take Walker, you've got to believe the Rockets at No. 14 or the Pacers at No. 15 will grab him. But once a player starts to slide like that, you never know. [/rquoter]

 

[rquoter]We're getting ready to put together Mock Draft 7.0 for Thursday.

I've been on the phone all day and here's a sneak preview of where we think it's heading at the top of the draft, as of 5 p.m. on Wednesday.

1. We still have the Cavs taking Kyrie Irving at No. 1. While they haven't said anything definitively, most signs still point in that direction.

2. The Wolves continue to debate between Derrick Williams and Enes Kanter at No. 2. However, it appears that Williams still holds a slight edge there despite the fact the Wolves are beginning to tell teams they're taking Kanter. While I do think the Wolves are strongly considering Kanter, I think the fact that the news has gone public is an attempt by Minnesota to see if Kanter generates more trade interest than Derrick Williams did.

3. The Jazz remain silent about their decision at No. 3. But for the first time in a week, signals are starting to emerge that Enes Kanter might be the pick here -- if the Wolves don't take him at No. 2.

The Jazz are facing a classic dilemma. They think Kanter would be the best prospect available but feel a greater need at the point guard position. However, it appears the Jazz may go ahead and draft talent over need and hope they can land a point guard, like Jimmer Fredette, at No. 12. But if the Wolves take Kanter at No. 2, then the Jazz would snatch up Williams at No. 3.

4. If Kanter is off the board, the Cavs will have to choose between taking Jonas Valanciunas and Texas forward Tristan Thompson. I think they are actually leaning toward Thompson. The Cavs love Valanciunas, but have concerns about his inability to play in the NBA next season. Those concerns would dissipate if they trade down, but at No. 4 they are hesitant to take him.

Sources say the Cavs brought Thompson back for a second workout on Monday along with Williams, Kanter and Brandon Knight. Thompson met with owner Dan Gilbert and, from what I can gather, there's a growing comfort level with Thompson at No. 4. That should come as some vindication for our own John Hollinger. On Monday, Hollinger's Draft Rater pegged Thompson as the third-best prospect in the draft.

5. At No. 5, the Raptors will have a choice between Knight, Kawhi Leonard and Bismack Biyombo. Despite the recent push to improve their defense, I doubt they let a talent like Knight slip past them at 5.
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