[ESPN] Will Bagwell get lost in Cooperstown crowd?

This is the first post I've ever seen from you, but it seems like you suck.

 

terrible, terrible post. let's hope the rest of your body of work shows improvement.

 

I'm way on board. Way, WAY on board. I've been touting Bagwell as the best-ever NL first baseman (pre-Puljos) for YEARS. I think he's a no-brainer first ballot Hall of Famer.

Having said that... the postseason issue, which I think (unfortunately), is going to rear its ugly head, is compounded by the losses. It's one thing, in a limited sample, to underperform individually; it's another to couple that with, for many years, playoff failures. I think that's what separates Bagwell from, say, a Mike Schmidt who (iirc) won two WS, or Tony Perez, who was part of the Big Red Machine. Even guys like Rice and Dawson (I haven't looked up their PAs, but I'm guessing they have significantly fewer postseason PAs than Bagwell ): I don't recall the Sox or Expos/Cubs being perennial playoff contenders like the Astros were during Bagwell's prime. And he’s additionally hurt by being linked to Biggio’s underperformance, too. The team’s two best players, continually coming up short for a team that was 0-fer for too many Octobers, is hard to shake.

My larger beef, btw, is the suddenly prevalent steroid issue. Did he use? Gun to my head, yes. BUT – until his name shows up on a positive test, he absolutely, positively has to be viewed as clean. Bagwell is nowhere near even the smoke associated with this issue. He’s never been named by anybody, he’s never appeared on any reports, you don’t hear his name thrown into the conversation with Bonds or Clemens or… Yet I’ve seen/heard it mentioned far too often, which is unwarranted and worrisome. I hope it doesn’t discount his accomplishments.

What’s going to be fun is that in the next several months, the younger, newer baseball writers (most of whom, unfortunately, don’t have a HoF vote) are going to come out of the woodwork to praise Bagwell – he’s a sabermetric wet dream, and I’ll revel in reading about the reverence they have for him. He was criminally underrated during his career; these next several months, I hope, will feel like a coronation of his greatness.

 

Hope these guys roll things in the right direction.

Because in addition to the two issues you raise above is the idiotic issue of mediots who compare Bagwell's counting stats to those of Frank Thomas and Rafael Palmeiro. Forgetting, of course, that Thomas was a DH for much of the time and (IIRC) played some LF, and that Palmeiro played a lot of outfield and a LOT of DH. That, and Bagwell's shoulder fell off. And, most importantly, those other guys are one trick ponies (as is McGwire), and Bagwell was a five-tool player.

I agree, Ric. He's a first-ballot hall-of-famer, or the voters are frauds.

 

Ehhhhhhhhh... Counting stats are likely what's going to open Cooperstown's doors to Biggio so let's not universally discount them too much. And while true - McGwire was (mostly) a one-trick pony, I wouldn't paint Palmiero or Thomas with the same brush.

Palmiero had 9,200 PAs as a 1B (almost as many as Bagwell) and was a well-rounded offensive player and a pretty doggone good defensive player, too (won more GGs than Bagwell). If anything, his positive steroid test augments Bagwell's chances greatly because Bags absolutely pales in the counting stats: 3,000 hits and 500 is absolutely, no doubt Hall of Fame-worthy, and first-ballot worthy to boot. Longevity is certainly a legitimate criteria - again, it's going to ensure Biggio's spot.

Thomas, meanwhile, I'm sorry: In his prime - I know he didn't play defense as well or run the bases as well - but, good gosh, he raked. In his first 8 years, he posted a 1.0+ OPS 6 times, and finished with an OB% of .400+ in 10 of his first 11 seasons.

I think Bagwell was a better overall player than both (though a smarter student of the game could likely convince Palmiero was better) - but those two guys were exceptional players. I don't struggle as much with any notion that Bagwell's overall body of work doesn't measure up to those two guys. The one I struggle with is any idea that Todd Helton is in Bagwell's class.

 

Only "discounting" them in the sense that those guys augmented them greatly while playing only half the game -- as a DH. Palmeiro had 9200 ABs as a 1B: how many of those counting stats came while at 1B? How many came after he was done as a defender and holding on as a DH?

Biggio's longevity was playing the entire game, not half of it.

Then he fell off considerably due to injury, spent some time as DH, then came back (remarkably) from a career-threatening injury and padded his counting stats as a DH. The guy's just not in Bagwell's class.

Palmeiro was a certified cheater who padded his stats at DH. While you're right that I shouldn't dismiss him as a "one-trick pony" like his fellow Bash Brother, as a 1B he's not on Bagwell's level.

 

18% of his HRs and 14% of his hits came as a DH. He was a prolific offensive 1B. In terms of counting stats, as an everyday player, Palmeiro had more HRs and hits than Bagwell and just 7 fewer RBIs.

Considering 1800 PAs as a DH, Palmeiro extended his career by roughly 3 years; we're not talking about a 5+-year discrepancy, or some 10-year stay of execution here. I think you're being overly harsh.

(And FYI: if the NL had a DH or Bagwell played in the AL, the position likely would have extended his career.)

Thomas finished top 10 in MVP voting for seven consecutive years (including back-to-back wins) as a first baseman. And if we're going to agree Bagwell is clean based on a lack of evidence otherwise, it's disingenuous to suggest Thomas - also clean, by virtue of lack of evidence - wasn't.

Thomas was a tremendous hitter; an all-time hitter. Look, I love Bagwell, but Thomas sets the class, not Bagwell, with regards to these two.

Are you confusing Palmeiro with Canseco? Palmeiro was never a Bash Brother.

I have no idea what Palmeiro did or did not take in his prime; he tested positive during, IIRC, his final season. But he is most certainly *on* Bagwell's level, msn. Sorry, man - you've got the homer glasses on here.

I love, Love, LOVE Bagwell. I'm the one who first dropped the "best NL first basemen of all-time" idea here (and elsewhere: I've been challenging people with that for YEARS). But I don't love him so much that it blinds me to how great Thomas and Palmeiro were.

 

18% is nearly one-fifth! But I have indeed overplayed it.

But he didn't. And yes, I am guilty of a heavy bias against the sick joke that is the DH.

I don't know where it looks like I suggested this; I did not intend intend to include Thomas in the 'roids discussion in the least. You're correct; that would be disingenuous. The comeback from injury comment was intended as praise.

Disagree. Look at their career numbers, year-by-year, from when they both came in the league in '91. They are nearly neck-in-neck! So with two hitters who are that close and who equally put fear into their respective leagues, you have to compare the rest of their games. And that is where Bagwell stands head-and-shoulders over Thomas, man. Bagwell sets the class, not Thomas. It's not even close.

Doh!! In that respect, yes---and perhaps also with the amount of time spent as a DH. I know Palmeiro's career; I don't know how I slipped into thinking of Canseco.

You're entitled to feel that way. But I watched the game in 80s and 90s too much for my own good. I watched them all play, and play a lot. Palmeiro is clearly a better hitter (obviously), but the discussion here (at least my point anyway) was who is the better first baseman. (The whole game mind you, not just counting stats at the plate.) And Bagwell, as a whole package, is better. You can call me a "homer" if you don't see it that way if you like, but Palmeiro wasn't exclusively a 1B and wasn't defensively on Bagwell's level (popularity contest "gold gloves" notwithstanding).

I do remember the conversation where you pointed out his standing among all-time NL first basemen. I remember hitting several stats sites and reading up on guys who were before my time in response, expecting to find at least four or five better guys. And I did find four or five better guys -- in the AL! I've brought this point up many times since, and thank you very much!

That said, I'm sorry if my commentary has come across such that you think I'm "blinded"--I don't mean to diminish Thomas and Palmeiro's greatness (especially as hitters). But Bagwell is better--especially than Thomas--as an all-around 1B. That's how I see it, and whether you believe it or not, that's my objective opinion, neither "homer-colored glasses" nor "blinded".

 

Yeah because I don't agree with you?

What did bagwell ever do when it mattered?? anyone ??

 

Seems like huh? so your not sure? Are you sure that bagwell was good when it mattered? Or maybe that's something you are not sure about as well?

What are you sure about balla?

All I remember is the games where it mattered bagwell was nowhere to be found. getting fat off a 4th string pitchers when the game is 14-2 against the pirates, is not clutch, nor HOF.

 

In the 1st postseason series victory in the franchise's 40+ year history, an aging Jeff Bagwell hit:

.318/.400/.682 2HR 5RBI 5R

Edit: And lets not forget that Bagwell got the hit in the 9th inning of game 6 with 2 outs against the Cards that year to send it to extras.

 

not at all. Rather, it's because you completely ignored the context of the post you directly replied to, and because you seem to greatly misunderstand the fact that the regular season does in fact matter.

 

Here is a look at some of bagwells monster post season numbers-

Cumulative Postseason Hitting Stats for Bagwell:
1997 - .083
1998 - .143
1999 - .154
2001 - .429 (7 At bats )
2004 - .286
2005 - .182

WOW !!!

</big>TOTAL CAREER POSTSEASON HOME RUNS - 2 <big>

CASE CLOSED

/thread

 

IBTL, honestly now--have you looked at current Hall of Fame members and how many of them struggled in the post season? Should we throw them out?

You're looking at one thing and one thing only: Bagwell's numbers in a small sample size against elite pitchers in October. Tunnel vision will cost you every time.

Look at a bigger context: how did everyone else in the Hall of Fame do? Let me assure you that for every Mr. October there are six or seven Bagwells.

In fact, two folks have already pointed out the "monster post season numbers" of quite a few bona fide Hall-of-Famers to you in this thread. Are you glossing over it because it hurts your argument?

The only case that is "closed" is that there is no argument that Bagwell belongs in the hall of fame.

 

You mean to tell me Bagwell struggled in limited plate appearances against: Kevin Brown/Tom Glavine/Greg Maddux/John Smoltz.

Lets just ignore his 3 RBIs in the only game the Astros beat the Pads in 98, which was decided by one run. Lets also ignore 2001 & 2004 because that is the only fair thing to do.

 

You're ignoring that after his first two admittedly dreadful postseason appreances, he posted a .421, .667, .400 and .500 OB% in four consecutive NLDS series. His lack of hitting was tied greatly to opponents intentionally not giving him anything to hit.

 

I can't believe I actually did research for this, but here you go. Since playoff batting average and HRs are apparently all that matter for HOF induction, we better kick the following guys out:

(Compared to Bagwell's .226 & 2 HR)

Willie Mays- .247 & 1 HR
Jackie Robinson- .234 & 2 HR
Ozzie Smith- .236 & 1 HR
Ted Williams- .200 & 0 HR
Andre Dawson- .186 & 0 HR
Dave Winfield- .209 & 2 HR
Mike Schmidt- .236 & 4 HR
Rod Carew- .220 & 0 HR
Jim Rice- .225 & 2 HR
Joe Morgan- .182 & 5 HR
Harmon Killebrew- .225 & 3 HR
Eddie Matthews- .200 & 0 HR
Stan Musical- .256 & 1 HR
Orlando Cepeda- .207 & 3 HR
Rogers Hornsby- .245 & 0 HR
Ty Cobb- .262 & 0 HR
Ernie Banks, Ralph Kiner, & Nap Lajoie- Never even played in the postseason (HA! Definitely kick them out!)

 

You know... Looking at the numbers more closely: You’re right.

Between ’91-’97 (their concurrent peak years), Bagwell posted a WAR of 45.2; Thomas 46. And while Thomas played 4 more seasons overall, he really only registered the rough equivalent of an additional season’s worth of PAs. And Bagwell still outpaces his career WAR (79.9 to 75.9). Thomas has him, slightly, by career OPS+ (156 to 149) – but, yeah – considering defense and baserunning, the edge clearly goes to Bagwell.