From Insider: WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF WATCH 1. Phoenix Suns Current record: 50-16 Projected record: 62-20 Skinny: The Suns are sprinting to the finish line in an effort to grab the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. With Tim Duncan out for at least the next two weeks, they should be able to grab it. The team has a fairly soft road schedule coming up, and Phoenix has been strong at home. Finishing with 62 victories isn't as impressive as the 70 triumphs some projected, but it should be enough to give the Suns the best record in the NBA this season. Come playoff time, will their high-octane offense be enough to propel them to a title? While many claim that the Suns don't play enough defense to win a title, their unpredictable offense is extremely difficult to prepare for, taking away an advantage most teams have in a seven-game series. Usually, good teams will take away the two things you do best in a long series. With the Suns' not running set plays and winging it on the offensive end, constantly adapting to what the defense is giving them, they'll be tough to nail down. Meanwhile, the Suns' defense has been improving of late. We still like the Spurs to win it all (as long as Duncan is 100 percent healthy), but expect the Suns to push them into a seven-game series in the Western Conference Finals. 2. San Antonio Spurs Current record: 50-17 Projected record: 58-24 Skinny: The Spurs have been the most efficient team in the NBA this season, playing great defense and running a well-oiled machine on the offensive end. But with Duncan out two to four weeks (bet on the latter) with a serious ankle sprain, the Spurs aren't going to be their usual dominant selves. That was evident Sunday and Monday against the Pistons and Knicks, and the trend will likely continue with tough home games against the Rockets and Sonics and difficult road games against the Nuggets, Mavericks, Grizzlies and Pacers. If Duncan is 100 percent healthy come playoff time, the rest might actually have enhanced the Spurs' chances. However, if the injury is more serious than the Spurs are letting on (it sure looked serious in the replays), the Spurs can kiss their title chances goodbye. They're going to need Duncan at 100 percent to beat Phoenix. 3. Seattle SuperSonics Current record: 46-20 Projected record: 56-26 Skinny: After a red-hot start, the Sonics are slowly starting to fade a bit in the West. Injuries are Seattle's biggest problem right now. Vladimir Radmanovic is likely out for the rest of the season with a broken leg. Radmanovic actually injured the leg just after the All-Star break, which might explain why he has struggled the last few weeks. Radmanovic was the leading contender for the NBA's sixth man honors. His absence is a major loss, even though the Sonics have won their last three games without him. He's not expected back for four to six weeks, which means he could miss the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, All-Star shooting guard Ray Allen and Danny Fortson are out with injured ankles, valuable guard Antonio Daniels has a torn meniscus in his left knee and All-Star forward Rashard Lewis is battling tendinitis. "We're banged up, but you've got to play," head coach Nate McMillan said. "Most teams, most players this time of the year, [have] got something that's sore on them." The good news for the Sonics is that in Allen's absence, Ronald Murray has re-emerged as the dynamic scoring threat we saw last season. Murray dropped in 25 points Sunday and likely will be in the starting lineup until Allen returns. "He's deferring to Ray when Ray is in the lineup, and when Ray is out of the lineup, like [Sunday] night, he knows that he has to provide some scoring," McMillan said. 4. Dallas Mavericks Current record: 44-22 Projected record: 55-27 Skinny: Everyone knows by now that Mark Cuban and Don Nelson didn't always see eye to eye. Their latest ongoing beef had been about defense. Cuban thought the Mavs should be playing more of it, and Nelson agreed this summer to give it his best shot. But clearly, it's assistant Avery Johnson who lives and breathes defense. Nelson used to pull players out of games when they made a mistake on the offensive end. Johnson, who credits Gregg Popovich as his coaching inspiration, pulls them when they miss a defensive rotation or fail to keep opponents in front of them – which is why the first guy he benched after getting the job was Dirk Nowitzki, even if it was for just 33 seconds. "I didn't do my job defensively," Nowitzki said. "I let the guy get the ball too close in, and he scored. It was a message he [Johnson] was sending to me and everybody. We have to believe in Avery and in the system. He wants to treat everybody the same, which we know is not really possible. But he made a nice little stand for me and the team." Johnson also apparently knows how to play Erick Dampier. Dampier's best stretch of the season came with Johnson as the head coach. Put those two together and we can expect to see a different Mavs team in the playoffs – one that cares just as much about defense as it does about jump shots. That could make the Mavs very dangerous come playoff time. 5. Houston Rockets Current record: 40-27 Projected record: 51-31 Skinny: The Rockets have run hot and cold all season. Expect them to get hot again as the season winds down. They came up big at home on Tuesday, pulling out a two-point victory against the smoldering Heat. The Rockets have one of the softest schedules left of any team in the West. It couldn't come at a better time for the Rockets. After Houston started off the season poorly, coach Jeff Van Gundy found a way to light a fire under his team during the middle of the season. But lately the effort has been lacking again. Expect him to fix that by the playoffs. When Van Gundy does fix things, the Rockets should roll into the fifth seed in the West and be a dangerous threat come playoff time. The Rockets have done a nice job of adding depth during the season, bringing in David Wesley, Jon Barry and Mike James to bolster a weak backcourt. If they can get Juwan Howard back in time for the playoffs, they could make some noise. 6. Sacramento Kings Current record: 42-27 Projected record: 50-32 Skinny: Media pundits ridiculed Kings GM Geoff Petrie when he traded Chris Webber for Kenny Thomas, Corliss Williamson and Brian Skinner. Who's laughing now? With Brad Miller out the rest of the regular season with a broken leg, it has been Thomas and Skinner, along with Darius Songaila, who have made a major impact. The newcomers have kept the Kings afloat. Meanwhile, back east, Webber is running Philly into the ground. Think Petrie knew something we didn't? If Miller gets healthy and Peja Stojakovic can find his shot, the Kings should have the juice to knock the Sonics out of the first round. 7. Memphis Grizzlies Current record: 38-28 Projected record: 48-34 Skinny: When Hubie Brown resigned on Thanksgiving, it was the Grizzlies who looked like an overdone turkey. But thanks to Mike Fratello, the team is actually back in contention in the West. Had Pau Gasol not missed two months with a foot injury, the team probably would have been a fifth seed in the West – pretty amazing given its 5-11 start to the season and the rash of injuries Memphis has suffered. Now that Gasol is healthy, the goal is to get Stromile Swift back on the court. Swift has been out a month with an ankle injury. Doctors cleared him to play two weeks ago, but Swift is refusing, claiming he has no lift. Swift is a free agent this summer, and some in Memphis are quietly questioning whether he's protecting himself. If Swift doesn't come back, the Grizzlies will still be solid, but if he does return, the Grizz will be very dangerous at full strength for the first time this season. But even at full strength, will the Grizzlies fare any better this year against the Spurs, their likely opponents in the first round? The Spurs blew them out in four straight games last season. But if Duncan isn't at 100 percent, it could be the Grizzlies exacting revenge this year. 8. Denver Nuggets Current record: 36-30 Projected record: 47-35 Skinny: The Nuggets are the hottest team in the West right now, winners of 12 of their last 13. Credit head coach George Karl, who has gone 19-5 in Denver . Great coaching can make a difference. The Nuggets looked hopelessly lost before Karl arrived. Since he came on board, they've been as good as any team in the West, and they keep getting better. Their defense and offense have improved under Karl. Now they're getting healthy. Nene returned to the team Sunday, and Karl is cautiously optimistic that sharpshooter Voshon Lenard, who tore his ACL on opening night, could be back sometime in April. If that happens, the Nuggets will be able to put a scare into anyone in the West. Anyone.
not bad i agree with most of it, not too sure how lately the effort has been lacking since we've won 7 of our last 10 games. but regardless pretty decent ranking projections, who wrote this i wouldnt believe it would be chad ford, if it was he'd have us at the seventh spot at best
I think a lot of people in the media were willing to get on the bandwagon, and just when they did the Rockets get blown out 2 games in a row. I don't blame the writter for saying the effort was lacking, those were the games they watched. Here we get mad that the National media doesn't give us a lot of respect, but looking it from their point of view, if the Nat'l media watched all of the Rockets games, the Nuggets, the Grizzley's , etc. Those people would not have one ounce of free time to go make up ther scoops (just kidding, we all know they come from Legit sources) Getting back to the article, when the Shots weren't falling the effort faded. Even when the sonics, suns, and heat came at the Rockets (as the Rockets were down by double figures), the effort stayed there for 48 minutes. When the Rockets play with effort, as long as the other team had effort too, the games are fun, no matter the result.
Good read; no love, as always. Zac, if they are writing this stuff for a living, they better have league pass and should at least be watching part of every game. It's their job! (although I know it's not reality) Thanks, nWo34Life
I love our remaining schedule. With the Sonics' various injuries and Duncan out, the two games against the Suns are the only ones left where we shouldn't be favored.
Maybe in relative terms to say the lakers, but I definitely wouldn't call ours easy. Lotta hard games, and aside from the 2 against NO and one against GS, there are no gimmes. Mar 24 CLE Mar 25 @NO Mar 27 @SA Mar 28 @UTA Mar 30 @POR Apr 1 NO Apr 3 PHO Apr 5 @GS Apr 7 @LAL Apr 9 @PHO Apr 11 @SEA Apr 13 MEM Apr 16 DEN Apr 18 LAC Apr 20 SEA
the spurs play well without duncan though. denver is red hot, cleveland just beat detroit, utah seems to always play us well... after what happened against boston and minny, I'll choose to remain cautiously optimistic.
Every NBA game is a tough game, but if we can't beat the Spurs without Duncan we shouldn't even be in the playoffs. Cleveland beat Detroit but they just lost to Toronto too. A tough game? Yeah, but we should definitely win. I'm not especially scared of Utah either. You're right about Denver though. They're as scary as Phoenix right now.
I don't think DENVER is elite team. yes, they won a lot of games recently but if you check it carefully, no good team at all ! they only beat SPURS w/o TD and MANU, and they lost to SUN on home court. The problem of DENVER team is they don't have superstar. I watch a lot of DENVER games coz I live in COLORADO. in the playoff, DENVER is the weakness link, they just like weaker-version MEM
I could care less about 2 losses , but what has me worried is that we seem to be in a colletive shooting slump. I guess the absense of JHo really throwed us out of sync. We've got get our rhythm back.
Most of that shooting slump is on T-mac. However, James and Sura have also cooled down a bit. Once they get it going again they should get on another win streak. I dont thin J. Howard has much to do with the shooting slump (although we do miss his overall offense). Hopefully they start to shoot better tomorrow night against the Cavs (who are not really known for their defense).
Not true, Sura, Wesley, James (to a lesser extent) have ALL been ice cold. Barry is the only shooter that did not go cold until the Heat game. It is certainly a collective team slump as far as our perimeter shooting is concerned. The problem is you HAVE to keep shooting them and make them if you want to spread the defense and open up things inside a bit for Yao AND T-Mac/Sura driving inside. THAT is why you can't stop shooting from the outside, it is a must that we start making those shots, otherwise they will just collapse in the paint and dare you to shoot it.
Against Golden State, Boston, and Minnesota, the effort was most certainly not there. It was disgusting. The player's seem disinterested, like they thought they could just win by showing up. Coming from a bunch of lunch pale guys (plus Yao and McGrady), that's really scary.
