ESPN: Rockets will not match Grizzlies offer sheet

So why draft Griffin?

 

Desert Scar,
I guess it is difficult to judge Posey's value that way, let me try another approach.

For other teams, Posey might be of higher value than for our team. I don't think we need offensive weapons. We have Steve, Yao, Cat, MoT, Pike, Rice. What we need more is a defensive stopper at the 3. Posey is that but Hawk or TMorris or tons other players out there can do the job almost as well for a fraction of the price.

 

No I was using cruder estimates (average) because most of people here are fans not seeking "professionally" written posts, nor logic/evidence to professional standards. That said I don't think the example is that far off, if you calculated the median salary for non rookie league contracts (more relevant to Posey's market value than the median of all players salary), I would bet it is somewhere between 4 or 6 million--probably not that far off the MCE (average of all league players) whose left tail is skewed by a few huge contracts). Now if I was working for the Rockets or a player you can be sure I would have applied "professional standards" and beyond--but for the argument at the time I was going with rougher estimates.

What would be interesting if someone had the motivation would be to take multiple of the composite statistical indices of players total contributions and average them (or take the median, or eliminate outliers before the mean calc). It need not be complicated (no need for nonlinear regressions or anything), simply find the 20 veteran players salary who scored just above Posey and take the mean and median of their salaries, and the 20 veteran players salary who scored just below Posey and do the same. That would provide a crude estimate of a reasonable salary range for Posey. I don't have the time for it but if someone does that would be great--if I was a betting man I'd say Posey at 4.9 would be less than lower end of the range, but I certainly would not put my house on it or anything. This strategy isn't perfect by any stretch--the biggest flaw being individual defense and other nuances of helping/hindering teammates on both ends of the floor do not come close to being adequately weighted or considered in any statistical composite of total player effectiveness that I know of--but it would provide a starting point at least.

Understood, but I hope we can agree to move to more substantive and fun to discuss things.

I took the 42 or so starting 2s or 3s in the league from last year (sometimes this gets difficult as some guys started part of the time) with non rookie scale contracts. Some of the key points--median was around 7, average a little over 8, and only 8-10 of these players made less than 5 million (about 20% +/- 5%). I have posted the list of many of those players for comparisons previously in this thread (some better value than Posey, most worse though), especially regarding ragingfire's post if you want to examine many of these players/salaries.

I am fairly sure it is only 10%--that only FAs own teams can resign them with 12% increases. Makes me doubt the 24 mil figure frequently reported in the media (unless I am missing something else--I could be, I am not expert on the CBA, but Memphis's contract should tap out at 22.5 over 4). As with the Florida for Gore call a few years ago--as I am sure you are aware one flaw in the data/assumption one person or a group reports on can result in an error consistently repeated across media channels that comes across as independent verification. Until the NBA, teams or agents say what the exact figure is I am not confident what that exact figure is--right now the best to my know is 22.5 over 4.

 

Raginffire, sorry, Tmo & Hawkins just are not in the same league as Posey as an all-around player--those former guys are servicable 15-20 MPG backups, Posey is a great 6th man or servicable 30-35 MPG starter.

In a post I started a few days ago (something like we need 3 be it Posey or via trade) I look at all the possible FA possibilities for like a million. The most promising other options were Adrian 'sub-zero O' Griffin, Lee 'Sub-zero no D Nailon', and Bryan 'I left my shot and my jock in Chicago' Russell. Of these Russell would be the most promising--but I think the minimum for his time in the league would be 1.5 mil (maybe 1 million, not sure) and he had a pretty bad year last year anyway. If It came between Pike and one of these 3 for 4-4.5 million or Posey for 4.9--Posey is a much better long term piece.

 

I guess we just have to disagree then.

1) Posey will put us over the Lux tax treshold.

2) Posey might be better than Tmo & Hawk but I would not call him an all-around player. His outside shot is average at best. He can barely dribble and create something off it. If he has a post game, I've not seen it. He can run the break but any avg player can run the break if the PG give him the ball at the right place.
His defense is good but he does commit blunder from time to time by fouling or trying to steal and lose his man.

3) The 1st 2 months Posey was here, people crucificed him left and right. He only played well the last 2 months. How many big contracts have we given out to players with short performance's burst?

4) Do we really need a starting 3? You can make the case that we do and we did. I can't argue against that but trouble is we can't best ultilize our roster that way. Rice had barely time to play and Boki, Hawk had no time. We have not signed Hawk but I would sign him to use for 10-15 mins at the 2 and 3 and give more time to Rice, Boki.
If they don't work out then I would figure out a trade but I would at least give it a shot first.

5) Losing a player thru FA is not a sin these days. If you manage your cap space well, you will have ur chance to pick the cream of the crop later.

All things considered, I don't think Posey is worth it.

 

Nice post I just have some differences of opinion that lead me the other way. 1) Boki has shown nothing to indicate he will contribute this year, let alone down the line. While you don't give up on him (though he is no baby at 23), you don't count on him either. 2) Rice has what averaged playing half the games over the last 3-4 season. 3) By all accounts Posey is one of the hardest workers and team oriented guys. He also does the little things like hustle and board hard (and practice hard)--and he did average over 15 PPG for Denver and shot a high % with us the last 2 months. His career shooting is low--but when he had talent around him and could be the 4th option or so (his rookie Denver team with healthy McDyess, NVE, Raef, etc, us late in the season with a full team)--his shooting has been much better. With his ethic and with better teammates/understanding of his role, I see no reason why he won't progress in shooting efficiency as Mario Elie and Bruce Bowen has through their early 30s. In sum I just think he does a whole lot more for you and with a whole lot more potential than Tmo, Hawkins or anyone else we can find for cheap.

We could wait until the Rice-Hawkins-Boki experiement starts killing us (amplified by the nearly as weak 4 spot) early in the season--but then to get someone to trade an average starting 3 is going to take some work and we are going to have to give up valuable compensation (Mobley, EG), maybe we could find a servicable one (Erik Williams + Blount for Cato) but I'd rather just keep Posey and Cato right now.

 

Far from a cap-ologist, but the 10% increase is the annual bump given to a free agent signing with another team. The 12.5% increase is the annual bump given to a free agent that signs with his incumbent (current) team.

And I feel VERY comfortable saying so, as I'm doing nothing more than expounding on HP's point.

 

Market values aside, I think the bottomline of this issue is Boki. If we sign Posey for the MLE, we will want to play him a lot of minutes in order to justify the contract. That means Boki is going to play very little as long as Posey is here.

I think the decision on Posey's signing comes down to how much the management want to bank on Boki's potential. If they think he is a starter material, then there is no point signing Posey at that price. If they think Boki has no game, then they will sign Posey and either keep Boki as the backup or ship him out while he still has some trade value.

 

We have official word that Memphis can't give more than 10% raises. You can view the full Collective Bargaining Agreement at www.nbpa.com

The 24 mill number has had me confused as well. The only possibility that I see is perhaps a signing bonus is involved-signing bonuses can be for up to 25% of the contract. The value is just amortized over the length of the contract for cap purposes. Here is the part where the language gets a little hazy to me- can a MLE signing include a signing bonus that puts year 1 over the designated "max" value of the MLE? With max contracts and seen the case of Jason Kidd, the signing bonus can't cause the the first year to be greater than the assigned "max" value for a player.

 

Actually this is what I am most afraid of. His extra hard effort may be driven by the desire of a new rich contract. Not saying he will defenitely become lazy, but that is a possibility. Someone like Posey, not established as big stars, willing to give up starting position in a promising team, just to get a mil buck more for 4 years, suggests he is more eager to cash in now, than build his long term career. When someone is eager to cash in, you start thinking he is not counting on the future.

What caused Rox sit here not able to do much during offseasons? Contracts with Taylor, Moochie, Cato, Rice. The thought that Posey may dispoint us and put us in the same situation 2 years down the road is just unacceptable.

 

Now I have no inside info, but every media report from Rocket brass and Nugs brass suggest Posey has always been one of the most deligent practice guys with a great work ethic. That kind of consistency definetly wasn't there for Taylor & Cato--not sure about Mooch and Rice--though Rice was a true superstar and had been one of the best SFs in the league (prior leg problems) when he got his contract. While I don't think you can blame us for Rice (he has been a lot better than Shandon has for NY)--certain we can take flak for Shandon, though if we would have flaked out on his 2nd contract with us the trust between our org and future FAs would have been crushed IMO.

Also, Taylor and Cato had 6 year deals at double the money of Posey's--they are a whole different league. Posey's contract is only 4 years at MLE money--that just isn't close to the same relative risk for a player who has been more consistent in the court and who by all public accounts has a great work ethic for all his years in this league.

 

I think Posey is either "selling high" or stupid. If I were him, and I know I am going to work my butt off to better myself, I would have taken the offer sheet from Memphis to CD and Les before I sign it. CD and Les probably would have offered 18mil/4 year, and I would have taken that. By staying in Rox and starting every game, the chance is 4 years later, I would get a even richer contract and I would get a chance for the championship.

Instead, Posey decided to sign the offer sheet, knowing it is almost impossible for Rox to match. So he was determined to go to memphis, for a few more mil$, but risk not starting.

Posey is stupid if he plans to work hard, because Rox gives him a better opertunity to show his value and get paid more for next contract.

Posey is "selling high" if he plans to sit and relax, or if he knows he overachieved last year. In that case, not matching is the best decision for Rox.