ESPN Marc Stein: Rockets long known to be Josh Smith fans

We spent so many years getting to where we are now (RE: cap flexibility).

Do we really want to sacrifice that to increase our options of just "getting past the 1st round"?

Goal is a championship. Josh Smith alone isn't going to do it.

 

If you want JSmoove, Morey, get him now. He won't leave the team that has his Bird rights.

The thing about Harden, Lin, Parsons, and, yes, Josh Smith: THEY WANT TO BE HERE.

(Now, so does LaMarcus Aldridge, but we can't get him; and if DH12 told Harden "keep the light on", then forget Smith. But "if" is the longest two-letter word in the dictionary.)

^^This.

Unless there are cap-space teams with available draft picks for some of our PFs, but that's iffy, and to be honest, I think Tjones and Dmo are gonna be good players, so it's hard to quantify their value in trade scenarios, especially when they spend 3/4 of their time eating at La Palenque (good food!!) in McAllen.

That team is so got-damn stupid. Over the years they're involved in 25% of the trade rumors and never pull the trigger, but they pay Elton Brand $18,000,000 to go away and give up players for the honor of paying Bynum the same amount to hobble around and injure his knee bowling.

 

EXACTLY!!!!!!!!

 

I agree, but i still think there's a way to create enough cap space for both Smith and Howard, as long as we don't max out Smith. Lin or Asik would have to be moved to a team that could absorb their contract and is under the cap. Maybe it's a long-shot, and i agree with you that if we stopped at just Smoove, we'd be doomed to be above average, but not contenders. However, I think we have a better chance of attracting Howard in free agency if we have Smith, and I think Howard/Smith/Parsons/Harden = championship.

 

A "logjam" at the four is not a bad thing. Thats like saying I have a logjam of dollar bills in my pocket.

If you trade all your young pieces for a cap killer, thats it, your team is done and there are no avenues to get more talent.

If you trade for Smith/Milsap and essentially kill your cap, you have to keep your trade pieces for future moves.

 

Interesting. Josh Smith certainly is a tease.

I wonder if the difference of opinion is just between the main decision makers or if there's a split between the "basketball traditionalists", if you will, and the stats (guys).

I also wonder if the Rockets perhaps were (more) intrigued with Smith before they traded for Harden, as Smith -- as much as he provides elsewhere -- wouldn't appear to be quite ideal as it relates floor spacing.

 

Trading for Josh Smith now does nothing to hurt their cap flexibility. He is a large expiring contract, a player whose bird rights you will own, a player who likely will be eligible for a nice sign and trade this Summer, and would give the Rockets even more cap space to sign a max salary player first this Summer.

As Clutch elluded to earlier, I wouldn't expect anything more than a low risk lowball offer that just barely nudges any of the junk offers Atlanta can get from the Nets or Boston.

So whats the Risk..... Patrick Patterson(a player they might move anyways), and the expiring contracts of Aldrich/Douglas?... seems like the reward definitely outweights the risk.

As for signing him long term this Summer... lets just cross that bridge when/IF we get there. July is a long way away and alot of things can happen before then.... I would go to Vegas with a bet that the Rockets are in no way planning on Josh Smith being the end all be all to the Rockets future.

 

ok just for fun, i used ESPN's trade machine to see who was over the LT. here's the list:

boston
brookyln
chicago
miami
new york
golden state
lakers

then subtract the teams that are over the LT by more than the rockets are allowed to absorb (meaning, using all of our cap space won't get that team under the LT), and you are left with:

boston
chicago
golden state

then look at which team has an expiring contract (to preserve our cap space) that the team would be willing to dump to save money. bonus points if that also gets that team under the LT:

bulls - belinelli
golden state - jack

belinelli doesn't get the bulls under the LT, so that doesn't make much sense. jack is a major contributor and GSW are finally good. I think they could shed salary to another team under the cap who wont only accept an expiring contract. so, back to the drawing board. maybe we could use our space to help ease the LT from a team that's way over it. here are the list of deadweight players on expiring contracts from the teams that are deep into LT territory:

nothing better than minimum level contracts, or contracts so small they wouldn't make a dent in the lakers, knicks, heat, nets payroll.

I'm guessing there is no market for what the rockets are trying to buy. on the other hand, making a move to clear cap space for next season by trading guys like patterson/delfino/white/jones for expiring contracts and picks may be doable.

 

How they cap killers when both Smith/Milsap have expiring contracts? It's not like Rocket can't do S&T with them during off season.

 

My guess is that the Rockets' interest in Josh Smith is similar to their interest in Marcin Gortat: They are interested in the player...at a certain price. Once Morey heard Josh Smith wants the max, Morey was probably like, "At max? Nah, but if he wants to sign for cheaper after the market says no to Josh Smith @max, then I may be interested...but I am not going to commit assets to it before the lack of market for Josh Smith @max is realized."

 

Sure they did; and Philly said what, 'Hell NO!' I would have done the deal as Atlanta but not as Philly.

In fact, I think Turner would be a good get for DM the GM. (Hawes, too.)

 

so Rockets are going for Smith in the after the season rather then trade for him now why ?

 

If I understand the situation correctly, Josh Smith wouldn't decrease our options, as he is a free agent after this year ends. If we can get him for non-expiring contracts (Patterson, Morris, etc.) then we could actually increase our cap room (assuming we renounce Josh Smith's rights) and our overall flexibility.

 

Here is what ESPN Insider Bradford Doolittle says about the scenario of Josh Smith being added to Houston:


http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8962145/nba-trade-scenarios-josh-smith


Is Josh Smith a max player?
Trade scenarios abound, but is Smith worth the money he wants?
Updated: February 19, 2013, 12:32 PM ET
By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider



Houston Rockets

On the court, no team in the league would be a better fit for Smith. Can you imagine his elite athleticism fitting into an offensive lineup alongside James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, not to mention a defensive lineup with Smith backed up by Omer Asik's elite rim protection? The Rockets would have to put together a sizable package of young players, but since they are under the cap, it wouldn't have to add up to Smith's $13.2 million salary figure. Still, it may hardly seem worth it now when they'll have to space to sign Smith outright this summer.


Bradford Doolittle

Sports reporter, Kansas City Star, 2002-09
Writer, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus
Member, Baseball Writers Association of America
Member, Professional Basketball Writers Association

 

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Not gonna happen, no not gonna happen

 

Clearly Moreys plan is to recreate the 96-97 Rockets
Harden-Drexler
Smith-Barkley
Howard-Olajuwon
Parsons-Elie
Lin-Maloney

They will succeed where the past has failed!

 

Here is the whole article:

With the league returning to post-All-Star business, the Josh Smith trade whispers turned into a shout on Monday. Just a month ago, Smith was suspended for one game by the Atlanta Hawks for a practice incident that stemmed from his frustration over a losing streak. Now it seems a near-certainty that Smith will be traded by Thursday's deadline, ending his 8½-year career in Atlanta and bringing to fruition rumors that have hounded him for years.


Smith has long been one of the NBA's mercurial talents, capable of keeping a team afloat or sinking it -- sometimes in the same game. He once went an entire season without making a 3-point shot, going 0-for-7 in 2009-10. That was a good thing, as he shot better than 50 percent from the field and posted what was then a career-best PER of 21.0. This season, he's on pace to take a career-high 175 3-pointers even though he still shoots less than the league average from deep. What do you do with a guy like that?

Right now, it feels as if every team in the league is in pursuit of Smith. The Washington Wizards reportedly are willing to give up anyone but John Wall, Bradley Beal or Nene. The Brooklyn Nets may be dangling Kris Humphries and MarShon Brooks. The Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks may be in play. The Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics have been mentioned frequently as possible destinations in recent days. The Houston Rockets have been suggested and make a lot of sense, but may wait to pursue Smith this summer. Suffice to say, Smith should not get too specific with his travel plans in the coming days.

Hawks general manager Danny Ferry has been clearing away salary ever since he took over in Atlanta, beginning with the miraculous trick of unloading Joe Johnson's contract. If Smith is traded, Ferry potentially could add a max player to a team with Al Horford, a legit big-three talent on a playoff roster who has three years and a reasonable $12 million left on his deal. As it stands, if Ferry declined all options, failed to make qualifying offers and renounced his free agents, the only obligations on his books beyond this season would be Horford and Louis Williams. That's some serious flexibility.

It's an oversimplification to say this, but close to the truth: A team in today's NBA can't win a championship if it gives a max contract to a non-championship player. That doesn't necessarily affect a team trying to acquire Smith this week. If you can work him into your existing pay structure without destroying your rotation or chemistry, a motivated Smith would make a fabulous final piece for a title-worthy roster. Then you can let him go chase his max deal in July, and perhaps keep him around if the market doesn't yield such an arrangement.

The problem is, a number of the teams attached to Smith in the rumor mill wouldn't be acquiring him as a finishing piece -- they would be viewing him as a franchise cornerstone, around which a championship roster could be constructed. Is Smith that kind of player?

Assuming the deadline market isn't going to yield a franchise talent to take the place of Smith -- a pretty safe assumption -- Ferry will be seeking rookie contracts, draft picks and expiring deals in return. Let's take each of Smith's potential landing spots separately, because even a quick glance seemingly leaves some of these teams out of the running:

Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee could package the expiring deals of Samuel Dalembert and Beno Udrih to make a trade work cap-wise. As for a sweetener, the Bucks have a surplus of athletic young bigs in John Henson, Larry Sanders and Ekpe Udoh, as well as their full collection of future first-rounders. You have to assume that Milwaukee would prefer to swap Monta Ellis for Smith, but Ferry should be concerned about Ellis' player option for 2013-14. The big question here: Would Smith even consider re-signing with the Bucks during the summer?

Boston Celtics
Boston is a tough team to read right now. Danny Ainge has a hard-capped payroll, which will prevent him from augmenting his veteran roster with a contract like Smith's. To make that move would be to blow up the Kevin Garnett-Paul Pierce core because Ferry isn't likely to take back the multiyear deals belonging to Jason Terry, Jeff Green, Courtney Lee or any combination thereof. Even if Ainge wanted to be bold and dangle Rajon Rondo for Smith, he'd probably have to clear a contract from an already-depleted roster to stay under the hard cap. A three-team scenario is always a possibility but again, it would involve blowing up the Garnett-Pierce tandem.

Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks certainly have plenty of expiring contracts to package for Smith. However, their first-round pick is in slot-protection purgatory because of last year's Lamar Odom trade. It's also not clear whether Dallas has the right young players to swing a trade. If it was just a matter of opening up Smith's salary slot, Ferry could just wait till the summer and renounce him.

Brooklyn Nets
Forget the Brooks-Humphries scenario. Humphries is on the books for $12 million next season, and his acquisition would put a serious crimp in Ferry's grand plan. That means Brooklyn would have to get a third team involved, and that team would have to be willing to take on Humphries. That won't be easy to find.

Houston Rockets
On the court, no team in the league would be a better fit for Smith. Can you imagine his elite athleticism fitting into an offensive lineup alongside James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, not to mention a defensive lineup with Smith backed up by Omer Asik's elite rim protection? The Rockets would have to put together a sizable package of young players, but because they are under the cap, it wouldn't have to add up to Smith's $13.2 million salary figure. Still, it might seem hardly worth it now, when they'll have to space to sign Smith outright this summer.

Phoenix Suns
Um, no. The Suns' roster is clogged by middling, multiyear contracts -- the kind you just don't give out en masse. Marcin Gortat might be interesting to Ferry, and Phoenix does have a surplus of future draft picks, as well as a pair of rookie contracts in Kendall Marshall and Markieff Morris. All of those assets packaged together might work for Ferry, but would it for the Suns?

Washington Wizards
No Wall or Beal? No expiring deals of any significant value? No Smith for you.

So while it seems certain Smith will be moved this week, it's also pretty easy to poke holes in just about any scenario out there. Some team will have to surprise us. That team also will have to make the key decision of whether Smith is a true max player. His starting salary would be about $16.4 million the first year, then increase by 7.5 percent annually for the four subsequent seasons. The final year would be worth about $21.9 million and the total deal about $95.2 million. Ouch.

Still, you can bet that some team is going to give Smith that money. That fact is driven more by economics than relative on-court value, by which only a handful of players are legitimately worth championship-player, cornerstone-type money.

Smith is easily one of the 30 best players in the league. Since the time he signed that previous contract with Atlanta 4½ years ago, he's 12th in the league in WARP. Nevertheless, the Hawks have topped out at 53 wins during that time and have not advanced beyond the second round of the postseason. Do you credit Smith for the Hawks' success, or penalize him because they haven't done better? It's a key question to ask.

An interesting way to frame it is to look at players who have had similar seasons at a similar age to the one Smith is having this season. Among the names that top his list of comps are guys like Chris Webber, Rasheed Wallace and Scottie Pippen. There are also guys like Shareef Abdur-Rahim and Al Harrington high up on the list. The range of possibilities is wide.

At 27, Smith has the talent and remaining upside to convince an eager team to give him the max deal he's long coveted. And as long as that team has the culture and payroll structure to surround him with the right pieces, it might even work out. In the right situation, Smith could be gold, but it will be up to each of the league's decision-makers to determine if their situation is the right one for Smith. One way or another, it will be a franchise-changing decision.


Maxed out?

Cumulative WARP from 2009 to 2013
1. LeBron James 136
2. Chris Paul 105
3. Dwight Howard 95
4. Dwyane Wade 89
5. Kevin Durant 76
6. Kobe Bryant 74
7. Tim Duncan 72
8. Deron Williams 64
9. Jason Kidd 64
10. Pau Gasol 61
11. Manu Ginobili 60
12. Josh Smith 59
13. Paul Pierce 59
14. Steve Nash 59
15. Dirk Nowitzki 56

 

Wow amazing move if Dm pulls this off.

I gotta say I'm not sure why Dm would like Jsmith, seems to be all flash and no substance to me. But if we could get some lotto picks and Jsmith for free than I'd say go for it.

 

I like the defensive potential Smith would bring. Defensively, he is one of the best. For Rockets, he would get better looks for his threes. 35% isn't too bad for a power forward provided he doesn't regress. I think he is a Rocket next year provided Howard, Paul, and Millsap aren't Rockets.

I look forward to the Rockets defense being regarded as one of if not the best defense on a per possession basis.

 

Before the Josh Smith discussions around here got started in earnest, I figured he’d be high on Morey's radar. These rumors are just more evidence.

First, we know Morey has said the person who created the box score should be shot. We don't know everything he uses to analyze player value, but we know that a variant of +/- is high on his list.

"One well-known statistic the Rockets’ front office pays attention to is plus-minus, which simply measures what happens to the score when any given player is on the court. In its crude form, plus-minus is hardly perfect: a player who finds himself on the same team with the world’s four best basketball players, and who plays only when they do, will have a plus-minus that looks pretty good, even if it says little about his play. Morey says that he and his staff can adjust for these potential distortions — though he is coy about how they do it — and render plus-minus a useful measure of a player’s effect on a basketball game."

[Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0"]

As far as I know, the most refined +/- calculation that's publicly available is Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus.

[Discussion (at the bottom): http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2011/12/6/2602153/advanced-stats-primer]

According to RAPM, Josh Smith had the 6th biggest effect on winning and losing in the NBA last year:

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2012.html

Josh Smith has never been to an all-star game but was the 6th most valuable player in the NBA last year. Sounds like a typical Morey undervalue signing, no? Someone asked Morey recently who the most undervalued player in the league is. He demurred because of tampering rules. I wouldn’t be surprised if that player is Josh Smith.

Moreover, Smith is a perfect fit for this team. Our biggest position of need is PF. Last year, Smith was worth over 3 points per 100 possessions more than Patrick Patterson, and that's not even Smith's strong point. When Smith is on the court, when other players’ activities are filtered out, his side allows 5 points per 100 possessions less.

We are already an elite offensive team. Smith probably makes us even better and more versatile. And, then, Smith paired with Asik vaults the defense into the good range, at least. Everyone should be salivating about this possibility. Smith to the Rockets means Houston is immediate contenders. Obviously, some will feel the need to be the "voice of reason", and say "slow down" or whatever, but you don't get any credit for admitting what everyone always knows. The evidence is there now. There's a reason why the other best team in the NBA at finding undervalued talent, San Antonio, is also in rumors linked to Smith.

Morey has consistently shown that his models evaluate talent well. If the rumors of our interest in him are true, and the facts say he should, the foregoing probably outlines some of his reasoning.

If we get Smith in free agency, we'll be contenders, and it will all be from picking up undervalued assets. Harden had never been to an all-star game, or a starter, and now he's a top 5 offensive player carrying a team. Morey has said Lin would have gotten more as an unrestricted FA than we paid and it's clear from Morey's fact-based public comments that there's a mismatch in how he values Lin compared to the backlash from some Rockets fans. Asik has exceeded expectations. Josh Smith has never been to an all-star game. A team of misfits could become champions.