Didn't see this posted anywhere, lock if posted. Although the Houston Rockets met their demise at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night, they shouldn't hang their heads. One could argue that ending the regular season on back-to-back losses to the lowly Phoenix Suns and the ailing Los Angeles Lakers cost them a higher seed (and avoiding the Thunder), but the 2012-13 season can only be classified as an unequivocal success from a big-picture standpoint. Here's a quick look at what went right and what went wrong with the Rockets. And more importantly, where do they go from here? The Good Acquiring James Harden: On Oct. 27, 2012, everything changed for Houston. Their plan of amassing assets for the sole purpose of acquiring a game-changing talent finally paid off with the acquisition of Harden. In his first season as a full-time starter, Harden energized the franchise and electrified the league with his penetration, playmaking and scoring, averaging 25.9 PPG, fifth-best in the NBA. He still needs help around him, but at a bare minimum he is an offensive talent who can carry the Rockets to a postseason berth. The rise of "Mathketball": It's no secret that under the leadership of GM Daryl Morey, Houston's been on basketball's cutting edge of quantitative analysis. While stat analysis has traditionally been a bigger influence on the front office side (player evaluation), the 2012-13 Rockets were a case study in stats having a major influence in on-court strategy (beyond lineup optimization). Houston's offense was geared to almost exclusively shun basketball's least efficient shot: non-restricted area 2-point FGAs. The result: NBA's fifth-most efficient offense (109.7 pts per 100 poss). The success of complementary pieces: Harden wasn't the only strong performer for the Rockets this season, as they got career performances from Chandler Parsons (2011 second-round pick), Patrick Beverley (rookie minimum free agent), Carlos Delfino and Omer Asik (summer 2012 free agency acquisitions). Asik was the only "big ticket" item at $8.4 million, but he was more than worth it as a defensive backstop and double-double machine. Flexible future: The Rockets have just $52 million in committed salaries for next season, but with some bookkeeping maneuvers (like declining Francisco Garcia's $6.4 million option), they can realistically get to down to about $41 million, giving them about $19 million in cap space. They also have a 2013 second-round pick from Phoenix (34th overall), which is one of the most sought-after commodities in the trade market (high enough to draft fringe first-round talent without the shackles of a rookie scale deal). The Bad What if?: It's hard not to totally dismiss the idea of what would have happened if the Harden deal never happened. It's possible the Rockets could have missed the playoffs for the fourth straight season, and Morey might have started feeling the heat, which would have also served (unfairly) as a referendum on the role of quantitative analysis in basketball. In that respect, Harden might have done more than just save Morey's job. The underwhelming of Jeremy Lin: Another person who should thank Harden profusely is Lin, who (in what now seems like a lifetime ago) was Houston's marquee offseason acquisition prior to the Harden deal. He was solid as a starting point guard, but nowhere near worth the now-comical hoopla of the summer (including the Knicks avoiding the Rockets' offer sheet for the restricted free agent). If Harden hadn't been acquired, Lin would have faced the focus of defenses every night, not to mention the public backlash of not being a savior. One-sided Mathketball: While the Rockets were able to successfully parlay advanced stats philosophy into their offense, their defense lagged behind considerably. They had the 16th-best defense in the NBA (allowing 106.1 points per 100 possessions). Oddly enough, they were incapable of preventing teams from attempting the very same high efficiency FGAs they sought themselves on the offensive end. This had a lot more to do with personnel and execution than it did with strategy, as Houston lacked bona fide defensive stalwarts, other than Asik and Beverley. The Royce White debacle: Much of the early part of Houston's 2012-13 season was devoted to navigating the White situation, with the player refusing to report to camp (and his D-League assignment) and the team suspending him. While White is a talented player, he was an unnecessary risk and huge distraction. Summer decisions and questions Dwight Howard cap space: While it will have a ton of space, Houston still falls just short of being able to offer Howard, the crown jewel of 2013 free agency, a maximum salary starting at $20.5 million. A Howard-Harden combination could vault the Rockets from pretenders to contenders, but they'll need to make some moves for that to be an option. How much (i.e., who) is Houston willing to give up to clear the space? Big name versus little name: Another pertinent issue is whether they will even pursue Howard or any of the other big-name free agents. Houston could opt to sign several "good" players with its cap space (preferably defensive-minded ones) and allow the team to grow organically. Is it better to pursue one big fish or several smaller ones? Which smaller ones should the Rockets pursue? No 2013 first-round pick: As it stands today, the Rockets don't have a first-round pick in the draft. Rookie-scale players are a great way to add subsidized talent, but depending on how high a pick they acquire, the cap hold of a first-rounder could jeopardize the ability to clear the aforementioned maximum cap space. Also, if there ever was a year to "sit out" the first round, this might be it. Should Houston try to get into the first round? Or focus on a high second-round pick? Royce White: Houston cannot go into 2013-14 still dealing with an unresolved situation with White. Declining his third- and fourth-year team options on his deal are no-brainers, but Houston still has him for his second year. Does Houston play White early to generate some trade value? Or do the Rockets cut their losses and negotiate a buyout on his second year? Prognosis There's nothing but sunny skies and bright days ahead for Houston. If nothing happens this offseason, they still have a bona fide star in Harden, a playoff-caliber roster, youth that is developing nicely, and competent coaching and management. A ton of cap flexibility moving forward gives them myriad options for roster improvement. The Rockets should be a major player at the table moving forward, but they must avoid the urge to shortcut steps to greatness.
I am also slightly irked at how a lot of sports analysts seem to always suggest that our inability to straight up offer D12 a max is a real problem. Sure we are a bit short, but moving TRob for free would more than solve that problem. Are we honestly suggesting that moving TRob for a 2nd round pick so that we could in theory sign Dwight is so ludicrous that it is rarely specifically mentioned in these articles? I see it as 'as good as done' if we wanted to do that trade. SOMEONE would take TRob off our hands for only a 2nd rounder.
I disagree that Josh Smith is a band-aid fix. Paul Millsap is a great player but he is more of a band-aid fix because of his age. Josh Smith on the other hand is by far the most realistic chance for Rockets. I love how everyone assumes we will land Dwight Howard or Chris Paul like it's nothing. Josh Smith is a great young player who can grow on the Rockets. He's shown the ability to do it all really and that's impressive considering he is a PF. He can Pass, Shoot mid-range, shoot 3pt, defense and obviously low post presences. Also I do infact know his shot selection can be very aweful and sometimes his mid-range and 3pt shots are really iffy. I say a realistic free agent signing would be Josh Smith and perhaps some other good role players such as OJ Mayo, tyreke, marion and etc. We would be a soild west contender with josh smith and adding some depth to the bench with some above average free agents. A very impressive free agency would be a Josh Smith and D-Howard signing, obviously this is kind of likely considering there good friends but this takes a hit to our roster depth and also makes J-Smooth and Howard to take major pay cuts. To me Chris Paul is out of the question and mostly likely Howard but I never say never.
We could easily give away Robinson for nothing, and Royce white if we threw in cash. That's 5 mill right there. Not to mention Asik who could be easily moved if we got Howard. Salary shaving for Morey is like a 2 foot putt.
Josh Smith is not a band aid fix. He's 28 yrs old and a top 25 NBA player. Defensively he can defend three positions and is one of the best wing defenders in the league. Offensively he can get out and run in transition and can hit the open 3 and has an above-average post up game. He feels just about every need this team has.
Correct me if I'm wrong but we don't need to give up anything to offer Dwight the max. Just need to waive Delfino/Garcia. http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/rockets.jsp Can someone explain the difference between a nonguaranteed year and a team option. Sham sports identifies them differently.
1st off, what exactly were this guys expectations for Lin? I think playing all 82 reg season games and averaging 13/7 is a pretty good season for basically a 1st year starter. Sure he could turn the ball over much less, but it is possible for players to improve. Even if they're Asian. Lin's numbers arnt going to be incredible playing along side Harden, but he did pretty much what we needed him to do all season. People assume because he is Asian, he's already maximized his potential. As for Josh Smith, he's not my 1st choice. But he would absolutely help this team! As i said in another thread, his boneheaded plays will be drastically decreased because he will be at the most a 3rd option offensively. If we get DH Smith would be a 4th option offensively. Smith would improve our D significantly though, and whether we have Asik or DH we would dominate the boards.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/houston-rockets-team-salary Dwight is owed $20.5M for a max outside of LA because that would be 105% of his current season's salary (minimum max under the cba). We can't clear that much under the current $58M cap even if we only kept our guaranteed players (at roughly $39M). Obviously we want to keep Bev and Parsons as well, so there has to be some movement in our guaranteed players, i.e., TRob or something. If the cap is much higher than $58M, our lives just got easier (though mind you Harden's contract will be a bit higher too as it is based on a % of next season's salary cap).
Interesting, thanks. With that in mind, do you expect us to trade away players before free agency period begins July 1?
I have to disagree. While JSmoove is not my #1 option, at the right price, he can make our team a darkhorse contender. The sad thing is, I don't think he can make us much better than a 'darkhorse' contender. But he is a great B+ player in a lot of ways. He fits our team. He can run, finish on the fast break, and has a high percentage at the rim. More importantly, our gaping hole is in our defense. Smith can guard the 3 and the 4 very, very well as an almost elite defender. Great weak side blocking as well. His ability to stretch the floor is actually pretty good. While his season 3 pt avg. from 3 is not great, it isn't terrible either. More importantly, he actually shoots 38% from the right wing, so that's notable. Also important is his ability to drive the ball and kick it out. He is a willing and able passer who can draw the defense in and kick out to the perimeter, something our offense is built on (along with the run and gun that he's so physically built for). JSmoove also has a decent post game, which is something we lack right now (outside of DMo, but he can't defend or rebound well enough to warrant his offensive contribution), though offense is not where I would get JSmoove for. We already were #2 in scoring in the league, and #5 in offensive efficiency. I'm not worried about our offense, although JSmoove would definitely help there. It is defense that he really helps us. Most if not all championship teams in the last few decades have not won without a top-notice defensive wing/perimeter player. JSmoove can do that for us in crunch time. His downsides are his boneheaded plays and inefficient shots. These problems are somewhat mitigated purely by the fact that, unlike at ATL, he will undoubtedly get fewer touches in HTown. This would limit the problem almost right away. At 27, could he learn our system of standing outside of 16 ft and going beyond the arc? That's questionable and something to worry about, but again, at least he gets fewer touches, and his prime use is not on offense but defense. All in all, for the right price (<$14M), I would be happy with a JSmoove signing, though not ecstatic. He has problems, but is not the black mark that some people make him out to be, as he fits very well with our team's offense and needs on defense. Whether he agrees to $14M or not, who knows. He has said he thinks he is a max player, but also said he's willing to negotiate for less. He has also said he would like to play for Houston. /shrugs I'm more on the CP3 + D12 bandwagon
PER is a flawed stat...it doesn't capture defensive impact, and rewards volume shooting. Smith is legitimately a top 15-20 defender, and when he exercises disciplined shot selection, he's a capable offensive player.
I've wondered this quite a bit myself. It is risky -- would Morey move TRob before then just for a 2nd rounder? Would he wait till draft night to do that and snag a 2nd round pick in this yr's draft to go along w/ PHX? How willing would LAL be to a S&T where they take TRob and we get Dwight? I mean, if Dwight's walking anyways, LAL is only benefiting, but if they think we could not, at that point, easily unload TRob to sign Dwight, they might not agree just to make life harder on us. Questions, questions...
Josh Smith is the quintessential band-aid fix. This type of move won't make us a contender and could haunt us in the future depending on the cost and length of his contract.
Another question, can you temporarily go over the cap to sign a player as long as you get back under by a certain date (like the NFL does). Or do we have to clear the space ahead of time?
Where in this article does it mention him being Asian? I love how legit criticism of his game means you are racist. Please just focus on the positive.
You have to have the cap space available at the point of the offer sheet. It's why teams waive players to make room to pursue a player, then end up with nothing. The easiest way to get Dwight is a S&T. Package a player like Asik and/or Lin + fillers. Barring that, Morey would need to do some fairly fast tap dancing and trade some players for some combination of picks, lesser salary players or cash.
