This Is part one. I'll copy and paste the other part about the rockets The 2012 NBA trade deadline has come and gone and will always be better known for who wasn't traded than for who was. The trade deadline was many things to many teams. For some it was the chance to add needed pieces for the upcoming playoff run. For others it was the chance to shed unneeded salary in preparation for July's free-agent market. Insider NBA Free Agency Primer With the NBA trade deadline having come and gone, here's an early look at how 2012 free agency will shape up. Haberstroh: Top 10 Free Agents Coon: Best salary cap situations Coon: Worst salary cap situations Doolittle: RFAs/Opt-outs best buys Doolittle: UFAs best buys With a big class set for 2012, it's never too early to talk about who will go where. Rumor Central This summer, 19 of the 30 teams could enter free agency below the salary cap. Insider's Tom Haberstroh took a look at the top free agents who could be available when the floodgates open in July. Here's the flip side of that coin: where every team will stand in relation to cap space. These figures are only approximations based on each team's current cap profile for the 2012-13 season. It doesn't take into account upcoming first-round draft picks (which count against the cap), nor does it include various cap holds for things like unfilled roster spots, free agents and salary cap exceptions. But since the draft lottery has not yet been held, draft picks can change hands between now and July, and teams can renounce free agents and draft picks, it's pointless to try to be more accurate this early in the year. So consider these figures to be upper limits; each team's actual cap number will likely turn out to be a few million dollars lower than what is listed here. One other variable is the salary cap itself. This offseason will be the first under the new CBA with a new formula for calculating the salary cap -- one that's based on the players receiving 50 percent of league revenues rather than 57 percent. For 2012-13, the cap is guaranteed to be no lower than this season's $58.044 million. This is where it likely will end up, although the rules do allow for it to be higher. With a nod to Grantland's Bill Simmons, the teams fall into several groups. Here we will look at the first three groups -- the teams in the best salary cap shape. Group 1: If cap space is king, then fit me for a crown These teams will have the most cap room to spend this summer. But the cap room for this group alone totals $140 million -- and there's not that much talent to go around. Even though many teams will be budget conscious like never before, this will be a seller's market, which will inflate prices. Phoenix Suns, $26 million under the cap: The Suns are $5 million over the cap right now and have Steve Nash, Grant Hill and Shannon Brown coming off. They could afford to re-sign Nash for one more run, plus get him some high-powered help. Cleveland Cavaliers, $26 million under the cap: Currently $5 million under the cap and with Antawn Jamison's $15.1 million salary about to come off the books, the Cavs will be poised to make a splash in free agency -- if any big-name free agents want to come to Cleveland. Portland Trail Blazers, $23 million under the cap: The Blazers had a fire sale at the trade deadline, dumping the contracts of Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby and narrowly missing out on moving Jamal Crawford. The Blazers will use the 2012 free-agent market as a springboard in their rebuilding process around LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. Boston Celtics, $22 million under the cap: Danny Ainge knew this day was coming. After trading for Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, he knew he had a narrow window in which to compete for a title. This summer, Garnett ($21.2 million), Allen ($10 million) and Jermaine O'Neal ($6.2 million) come off the books, and it will be time to start writing the next chapter of the Celtics' storied history. Indiana Pacers, $21 million under the cap: The team with the most cap room during the 2011-12 season (after the trade deadline they're now barely over the minimum team salary) will also enter 2012 free agency with a significant amount of cap room. Do they stay conservative, or do they swing for the fences this year? New Orleans Hornets, $20 million under the cap: The Chris Paul trade may not have turned out the way David Stern envisioned, with Eric Gordon playing just two games and Minnesota's resurgence compromising the value of the draft pick they received in the deal. Chris Kaman ($14 million) is coming off the books and will likely go elsewhere. They need to figure out what to do with Gordon (a potential restricted free agent) but will most likely stay conservative. New Jersey Nets: $17 million under the cap. The Nets have been in limbo all season as Dwight Howard, perpetually hovered between "staying" and "going" like a seven-foot Schrödinger's cat. Turns out they're still in limbo. Deron Williams has an opt-out and can leave for greener pastures even before the team breaks-in their new digs. Nets management are still convinced the best way to keep their star point guard in town is by luring Superman to Brooklyn, whether in trade or in the 2013 free agent market. If Williams sticks around they'll have a lot of cap room to spend, but need to be careful as that money is earmarked for Howard. If Williams leaves they'll lick their wounds and start over, and will have nearly $35 million in cap room as their consolation prize. Group 2: Teams with a magic bullet These teams don't have as much cap space as the teams in Group 1, but they do have the amnesty provision, and they may not be afraid to use it. This rule gives teams a one-time opportunity to shed a single contract. Even though they must continue to pay the player, he will no longer count against their cap or toward the luxury tax. Charlotte Bobcats, $14.9 million under the cap: While Michael Jordan's team will already have a significant amount of cap room, it can go all-in by using its amnesty provision on Corey Maggette, shedding his $10.9 million from the books and increasing the team's cap room to $26 million. Washington Wizards, $600,000 under the cap: While $600,000 is an insignificant amount of cap room and likely will be swallowed up by the team's cap holds, the Wizards have the ability to use its amnesty provision on Rashard Lewis and his $22.7 million salary, which would bring their total to $23 million. One caveat: Lewis' contract is heavily incentive-laden, and he must meet certain performance benchmarks for that money to be guaranteed. Given the way Lewis has been playing lately, the Wizards have to be at least a little afraid of using their amnesty on him, only to find out they saved next to nothing. Philadelphia 76ers, $2.1 million under the cap: Another team with a paltry amount of cap room but a big contract just itching to be dropped via the amnesty provision. If the 76ers dump Elton Brand ($18.1 million, on an option year he'd be a fool not to pick up), they could bring their total cap room to $20 million. Dallas Mavericks, $3.4 million under the cap: Mark Cuban and the Mavs were positioning themselves to be the next home for Dwight Howard and Deron Williams. To accomplish this, they needed to exercise their amnesty rights on Brendan Haywood ($8.3 million) and find a taker for Shawn Marion ($8.7 million) in trade. If they do this, they will free up the necessary cap room, but with Howard off the market, is this still their plan? Plan B might be to convince Williams to sign this summer and get ready to make a run at Howard next year. Group 3: The Goldilocks zone They say that mediocrity is a killer -- that it's better to be either really good or really bad. That's not the case with the salary cap, where the less you spend, the better off you are. But fielding a competitive team costs money, and it's nearly impossible to compete for a title without spending the money for top players. Every general manager's goal is to build a team that can compete for the title without spending too much for the privilege. These teams won't have cap room this summer, but they don't particularly care. Los Angeles Clippers, $1 million over the cap: Stung by Chauncey Billups' Achilles injury, the Clips nevertheless have their core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan signed through next season and just need to fill in around the edges with exceptions or trades. Memphis Grizzlies, $4 million over the cap: Another team with its core locked up and ready for playoff runs this year and next. Oklahoma City Thunder, $6 million over the cap: With his team as the prohibitive favorite to win the West and almost everyone on the team already locked in for next season, GM Sam Presti can practically afford to take the summer off.
This is Part two of the teams in the worst cap position. Rockets are in the middle We ran through the best salary-cap teams in the NBA, dividing them into three groups: Teams with money to spend, teams with an amnesty in their back pocket and teams that don't have much to spend but can contend immediately. Now we will look at the teams in the worst salary-cap situations in the NBA, also dividing them into three groups. Group 1: Houston, we have a problem Ironically, the Rockets aren't on this list, which consists of teams whose cap situation isn't too bad but still have things to worry about. Insider NBA Free Agency Primer With the NBA trade deadline having come and gone, here's an early look at how 2012 free agency will shape up. Haberstroh: Top 10 Free Agents Coon: Best salary cap situations Coon: Worst salary cap situations Doolittle: RFAs/Opt-outs best buys Doolittle: UFAs best buys With a big class set for 2012, it's never too early to talk about who will go where. Rumor Central New York Knicks, $4 million over the cap: They have Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler locked up, but they still have a lot of holes to fill and don't have the means to make another significant move. The team will likely need to use its midlevel exception to keep Jeremy Lin and can probably hold on to Landry Fields as well. But J.R. Smith's tenure as a Knick will likely prove to be a short one. Detroit Pistons, $5 million over the cap: If they did a TV show called "Extreme Team Makeover," the Pistons would be a shoo-in for the pilot. Remember what I said in the "best cap teams" story about mediocrity being a killer? The Pistons are a case in point. Joe Dumars has a lot of work to do in order to make the Pistons a contender, but the team's cap situation precludes any significant moves. Orlando Magic, $9 million over: Voiding an early-termination option can't prevent the inevitable; it can only delay it for a while. The Magic now have a window of opportunity in which to convince Dwight Howard to stay. However, having Hedo Turkoglu ($11.8 million) and Jameer Nelson ($8.6 million option) on the roster means that Otis Smith won't have any cap room with which to maneuver. His best chance of dumping one or both of those contracts is with a Howard trade -- one of the reasons it makes much more sense to trade him than to risk losing him as a free agent. Group 2: And the rest The Professor and Mary Ann were cheated in the first season of "Gilligan's Island" when they weren't even mentioned in the opening credits. Instead, they were simply referred to as "the rest." In a similar vein, these teams are going to be the also-rans in the 2012 free agent market. A few of them will even have an ample amount of cap room but probably not enough to compete with the big boys, and they aren't exactly situated in historical landing spots for prime free agents. In true "and the rest" fashion, we mention them only in passing. Toronto Raptors: $16 million under the cap. Denver Nuggets: $14 million under the cap (Wilson Chandler may take up a chunk of this). Sacramento Kings: $14 million under the cap. Houston Rockets: $13 million under the cap. San Antonio Spurs: $9 million under the cap. Milwaukee Bucks: $9 million under the cap. Utah Jazz: $4 million under the cap. Atlanta Hawks: $4 million under the cap. Golden State Warriors: $1.3 million under the cap. Minnesota Timberwolves: $1 million over the cap. Group 3: Cap casualties These are the teams for which cap room is just a memory. And for good reason. Each is making a serious run at a title this year, has the horses to do it and is paying the cost. In addition to not having cap room, these teams are also facing another problem -- the luxury tax. They will have to pay a dollar-for-dollar penalty for being over the tax line, along with what the new CBA penalizes taxpaying teams. For example, their midlevel exception is smaller ($3.09 million, instead of $5 million), and they can bring back a lower amount of salary in a trade than non-taxpaying teams can. Chicago Bulls, $19 million over the cap, $6 million over the tax line: With Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng safely in the fold, the Bulls have no real hope of having cap room in the foreseeable future. Their acquisition of Rip Hamilton with the midlevel exception hasn't paid the sort of dividends they were hoping for, so they may need to take another shot at finding a wing shooter this summer. Miami Heat, $20 million over the cap, $8 million over the tax line: It was less than two years ago when the Heat gutted their roster to gain enough cap space to lure LeBron James and Chris Bosh to South Beach. Their breathing room under the cap didn't last long, and now they are back to having one of the highest payrolls in the league. Los Angeles Lakers, $26 million over the cap, $13 million over the tax line: The Lakers have an aging roster led by Kobe Bryant, who will be 34 at the start of the 2012-13 season. But their nucleus of Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum (who has a team option for $16.1 million that is sure to be picked up) will keep the franchise in contention for a title for the next season or two. GM Mitch Kupchak managed to improve the team while saving money at the trade deadline, but the salary savings are a drop in the bucket in comparison to its massive payroll. However, the Lakers have nobody signed past the 2013-14 season and are positioning themselves for a roster overhaul in 2014. But the more interesting scenario to contemplate is what happens in 2013, when they will have a 35-year-old Bryant making $30.5 million, a 33-year-old Gasol making $19.3 million and a 26-year-old Bynum likely making $17 million after signing an extension. It's no secret that the Lakers' current title run will last only as long as Bryant remains at the top of his game. As soon as he hangs up his sneakers, it's time to rebuild around Bynum. While it may seem like a no-brainer for the Lakers to use their amnesty provision this summer on Metta World Peace (lopping $7.3 million off their cap right away and saving $15 million in luxury-tax payments during the next two years), the team may actually have something else in mind. Keep in mind, dropping from $26 million over the cap to $19 million over the cap doesn't help -- the Lakers' only benefit comes from their reduced luxury-tax payments. So why not hang on to their amnesty card as an insurance policy? The Lakers will never contemplate this if Bryant is still playing well in 2013. But if he has a serious injury -- and by serious, I mean Kobe Bryant serious, like a leg falls off or something -- then the Lakers might contemplate using their amnesty provision on him. If he's no longer able to play at a high level, then leaving his $30 million on their salary cap only forestalls their rebuilding process. By using their amnesty on Bryant in 2013, they get the process started a year earlier. Again, the team considers this option only if Bryant has broken down by 2013. There's no way the Lakers do this if he's still playing well. A crazy idea? Perhaps. But if they don't use their amnesty on World Peace this summer, you'll know why.
Ok so here's my question: Morey made all these trades and all it got us was 13 million under the cap?? the suns have 26 million to work with.. I'm confused because i thought everyone assumed we had all this money to play with in the off season? But how much of that 13 million will even be available after we sign 2 rookies to contracts? anyone with cap knowledge know what the cap stuff is? i heard on here we had over 20 mill available?
So... this article has WAS and PHI listed as being in great position in terms of cap room because that while they are currently projected to have insignificant cap room, they can have cap room of more than $20 million if they amnesty somebody. And yet they don't list the Rockets as being in great position cap-room-wise even though they have $13 million and, should they choose to, can get cap room exceeding $20 million, too by (a) not picking up Dalembert's option, or (b) either trade Scola or Martin for little salary in return or amnesty one of them. How does that make any sense? As Bima's writeups reflect, and as the article itself admits, you can't just look at the total salary of guys under contract in order to calculate cap room. There are numerous factors (cap holds, roster spots, etc.) that the ESPN article does not account for. So, overall this list is rather useless.
ESPN should fire whomever wrote this article. NBA capology isn't easy, but it's not Rocket science... pun intended, and this dude completely whiffed. I wouldn't trust a single number of his. You're better off just going to somewhere like Hoopshype. See the Rockets: http://hoopshype.com/salaries/houston.htm Only $30 million of guaranteed contracts for next year currently. Yes, you still have to do work to calculate cap space (projected next year's cap, add projected rookies or players brought from overseas, etc, etc.). You could also include an amnesty if necessary. Again, not easy... but not that complicated.
That math seems off to me - I'd like to see how they're calculating numbers. $58M is the cap this year, and possibly the next. Next year, on the books, we have: Martin, Scola, Lowry, and Morris for a combined $30.06M Dalembert's buyout is $1.5M Patterson's option is $2.1M Budinger's option is $0.9M Lee's qualifier is $3.2M That's $37.7M, which would figure to be $20.3M under the cap if it stayed flat. 5 roster spot cap holds drop it to about $18M There's also Parsons (Gilbert Arenas rule - capped to the MLE) Motiejunas is expected to come over ($2.5-$3M, my guess) And we'll have 1-3 first rounders (~$1.3M-$2M each) Pull them together, and we're talking another $10M +/- $2M. That brings us to $8-$12M in cap space We also have the amnesty in our pocket. I think Scola would be axed if his $9.4M stood in the way of a FA signing. Bima's math would be much more accurate than mine, but I still figure we're players to the tune of at least $17M in free agency. Question is, with Deron Williams bolting straight to Dallas, is there anyone else out there we want that badly?
However, one thing this article does make clear is that this offseason is a market for FA players. Unlike most years, multiple teams have ton of capspace to bid on what looks like a fairly crappy FA market. My own personal observations based on the numbers. 1. If the Rockets want to dump Scola and/or Martin for whatever reason, they should be able to do so easily. Many teams can simply take on their salary. Probably only matters if DWill is coming. 2. It's less likely for the Rockets to land a semi-star from a team's salary dump, as many other teams can also bid on these players. 3. It's less likely the Rockets can make a Jefferies type of a trade due to other teams also having to fill up capspace. 4. It's less likely that the Rockets can overbid on a RFA and get the guy, since another team may beat them with a better offer. Overall, IMO bad news for the Rockets unless DWill's coming... which of course he is 99.999% not going to.
^^^ One factor to consider regarding this year's FA market: Both Dwight Howard and Chris Paul are on 1-year contracts and can become FAs again in 2013. If there is even a reasonable chance that one or both of these guys might leave via free agency, or pressure the Clips or the Magic to trade him, 2012 offseason might look a bit like 2011 offseason, with many teams opting to pay guys on 1-year contracts rather than fill up their cap with multi-year deals for mid-level players so that they can preserve cap room for 2013 again. Examples of such 1-year deals include Kris Humphries, Carl Landry, Kwame Brown and Sam Dalembert (2nd year partially guaranteed). As for Houston's moves, my guess is they'll chase a star again: Deron in free agency or Gasol, Paul, Howard, maybe Nene and whoever else is disgruntled with his team or whatever via trade. Otherwise, they won't go crazy in free agency and make sure they have flexibility for 2013, too.
very very good points...this does suck. I doubt we have ability to do anything. I was all excited about our cap space but seeing the lack of noteworthy free agents and the teams in better cap positions than us...I dont know what we can do. Simple fact we prob wont even be in a position to take on a crappy contract or something to get a good player with everyone willing to do that. If we do make the playoffs and loose our 3rd pick...we draft 2 players with decent value that only moderately improve the team. We resign our own guys...and maybe a fringe high risk high reward free agent like ariza.
Only thing I can think of is throwing a huge number at Brooke Lopez and try to steal him away from the nets...they are probably still holding out for howard...and may decline to match. But then were stuck with an over paid, injury prone slightly above average center....which is better than we have now...................
It doesnt really matters whos number is right...the point I got from the article is that even in the most optimal of circumstances...we are still about average when it comes to cap space. So free agents dont come here as first choice and they wont come here because they get paid the most...and we wont even to be able to use the cap space as trade bait...seeing as every other team with have cap space to do the same.
What a crap article... why arent we a 'magic bullet' team - we still have our amnesty... acshen did a great salary cap chart breaking down our contracts for the next few years... http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=216979
Yea i knew about the other thread with the cap stuff, just wanted to share what the espn insider guy wrote is all wasn't saying he's right.. My biggest concern is if you look at the top 10 free agents available all are restricted and the ones that aren't are like Tim Duncan.. so what would our strategy be? packaging up our 2 first round picks and a scola or martin to move into the top 3 of the draft? or what.. what could we get with the Knicks pick(#15) and Martin then package up Scola and the Mavs pick #24? could we move into the top 10 with those 2 different offers? say a #5 and #7 pick? just throwing stuff out there..
I sincerely doubt the smaller market teams would hold out on CP3/Howard. Even the ones that are competitive like the Pacers. You may have teams like the Nets or the Celtics doing so, but most teams wouldn't even bother. And the Rockets will have trouble clearing cap for next year if they want to retain Lee and Dragic. If they want to maintain flexibility, then they probably need to trade Martin for an expiring and other stuff in the offseason, perhaps trading him to the Wolves for something. I agree that's probably what will happen. But so can other teams since these are basically trades, hence player preference for bigger markets won't matter. It will definitely be a seller's market for everything. Doesn't mean we can't do anything, but the market will be against us.
