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[ESPN] Big Man Barometer - couple of Rockets mentioned

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Dr_Funke, Dec 28, 2012.

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  1. Dr_Funke

    Dr_Funke Member

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    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8783633/nba-kevin-love-brook-lopez-return-top-big-man-barometer

    I guess Doolittle (of Basketball Prospectus) is going to be one of the many writers ESPN is trying to use to replace Hollinger. This is his big man rankings for the week of Dec 19-25.


    5. Omer Asik | Houston Rockets (.796)
    In a sense, Asik showed his old team, the Chicago Bulls, what's what with his breakout 20-point, 18-rebound Christmas performance. There was no real reason Asik would have been out for revenge -- he was treated very well by the organization, and even the Chicago media left him alone. His recent performance is about more than that game, as he collected three straight double-doubles last week, posting at least 14 points and 12 rebounds in each outing. Asik has become increasingly effective as a roll man, though he's still not much of a factor in the post. In fact, his .625 points per play on 32 post-ups this season put him in the 5th percentile in the league. Again, if you don't know how percentile works, that means on post-ups, Asik has been more efficient than just 5 percent of his NBA brethren.

    7. Greg Smith | Houston Rockets (.759)
    Smith's efficiency has made him a Barometer fixture. Last week, with Asik playing so well, he played a total of just 43 minutes in three games. During that time, he made 12 of 14 from the field. For the season, Smith is averaging 20 points, 11.8 rebounds and two blocks per 40 minutes while shooting 64.5 percent. He and Asik complement each other well and give the Rockets one of the best center tandems in the NBA. While Asik is in the first year of a three-year contract, Smith has a team-friendly, non-guaranteed deal for 2013-14, and then will hit restricted free agency. So it'll be quite some time before the Rockets have to worry about the center position.


    And what he says about Kevin Love, who tops his list:

    1. Kevin Love | Minnesota Timberwolves (.863)
    When players return after missing a significant amount of time during the season, two common areas of rust are shooting touch and turnovers. When Love returned from his hand injury, it was his shooting that was slow to return. It's too early to say Love has found his range, as he's been alternating between good and awful shooting performances of late. None of it has affected his floor game, as he's put up supporting numbers at his usual MVP-caliber level.
     
    #1 Dr_Funke, Dec 28, 2012
  2. jocar

    jocar Member

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    Wow, one of the best center tandems? I wish he'd stated which other tandems he considered abovel/below Asik/Smith
     
    #2 jocar, Dec 28, 2012
  3. Man

    Man Contributing Member

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    He means 95th percentile or top 5 percentile, right?

    It's great to see both guys doing so well!
     
    #3 Man, Dec 28, 2012
  4. chrispbrown

    chrispbrown Member

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    Yea I think he is wrong, if he is top 5% then he is 95th percentile.
     
    #4 chrispbrown, Dec 28, 2012
  5. Dr_Funke

    Dr_Funke Member

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    I think he means bottom 5%. He's trying to say that while he's getting better on the pick and roll, he's pretty bad posting up. On 32 post up attempts this year, he is only scoring .625 points per play.
     
    #5 Dr_Funke, Dec 28, 2012
  6. Man

    Man Contributing Member

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    You're right. Read it incorrectly.
     
    #6 Man, Dec 28, 2012
  7. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Per 36 stats can be misleading for players getting limited minutes given stats don't typically extrapolate similarly. But even still, isn't per 36 the standar?

    I can't fathom why he chose to show Greg Smith's per 40 minute stats. Onyl 9 players in the league even play 40+ minutes per game.

    Not that it matters.. his stats extrapolate well regardless of the number of minutes used. Just think it odd if he's trying to be the new stats guru.
     
    #7 JayZ750, Dec 28, 2012
  8. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    Asik's per is what got Morey to go after him so viciously. That turned out pretty well.
     
    #8 SF3isBack!!, Dec 28, 2012
  9. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    It's hard to think of tandems better than Asik/Smith right now. Asik is clearly a top 10 center(arguably top 5), and there isn't a big dropoff when Smith comes in because he brings something different on the table. To be honest they should probably include Cole Aldrich there because he played decently the one time he got a lot of mins (against the lakers I think).
     
    #9 roslolian, Dec 28, 2012
  10. OlajuwonFan81

    OlajuwonFan81 Member

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    Not true. Morey was high on Asik for a variety of reasons none of which had to do with Holinger's infamous stat PER.
     
    #10 OlajuwonFan81, Dec 28, 2012
  11. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    That in no way addresses the point... which is that the standard for per minutes stats is per 36 mpg. Also, you may be confusing PER and per minute stats.

    Finally, as noted, DM uses a bunch of statistical and observational analysis in deciding who to pursue, PER and per minute stats included.
     
    #11 JayZ750, Dec 28, 2012
  12. rolyat93

    rolyat93 Contributing Member

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    #12 rolyat93, Dec 28, 2012
    1 person likes this.
  13. thekad

    thekad Member

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    Yes, they do. Our best player is evidence of this. Efficiency, on the other hand, doesn't extrapolate through increased minutes.
     
    #13 thekad, Dec 28, 2012
  14. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    One, efficiency is a stat, so you're saying the both do and don't extrapolate similarly? Two, our best player played 32 mpg last year. In a test of whether per minutes stats extrapolate well when going from limited minutes to a lot of minutes, Harden should now be included.

    Asik, on the other hand, should, and he shows that per minute stats can extrapolate well. But they don't always. Moreover, there are a lot of other factors to consider. Asik, for example, has not only gotten a huge jump in minutes, but is on a team playing at the highest pace in the league. The Bulls last year were in the bottom 4 in pace.
     
    #14 JayZ750, Dec 28, 2012
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