Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[ESPN]2009-10 Forecast: Houston Rockets

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by burnshroom, Sep 28, 2009.

Page 1 of 4

burnshroom Member

Joined:

Jun 26, 2006

Messages:

2,055

Likes Received:

1,159

Didn't see this elsewhere. Lock or move if already posted.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/trainingcamp09/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=RocketsForecast0910

2008-09 Recap

By any objective measure, this was a successful season. The Rockets won 53 games, finally made it to the second round of the playoffs and took the eventual world champion Lakers to seven games despite having a skeleton crew on hand for the final four contests.

Unfortunately, the physical toll on the roster was so great that it's likely to undermine the Rockets' progress well into the future. Tracy McGrady battled an ailing knee, a recuperating shoulder and his own frail psyche for half the year before undergoing microfracture knee surgery at the midway point; Dikembe Mutombo was lost to a career-ending knee injury in the first round of the playoffs; and Yao Ming suffered a broken foot in the Lakers series, leaving his career in peril.

As a result, the Rockets come away from the most successful season of the post-Olajuwon era with a decidedly bitter taste in their mouths. It was a great year, but at a minimum it seems they'll need a step back or two before the next step forward.

That shouldn't take anything away from the campaign, as Houston battled through McGrady's early-season malaise and the loss of defensive ace Shane Battier to hang with the conference's non-Lakers elites. And while Yao gave his usual All-Star performance, the story of Houston's season was the production the Rockets got from secondary players who cost them little or nothing:

HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 53-29 (Pythagorean W-L: 55-27)
Offensive Efficiency: 105.4 (T-14th)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (4th)
Pace Factor: 92.7 (T-18th)
Highest PER: Yao Ming (22.74)

• Luis Scola, acquired in what was effectively a salary dump by San Antonio, played all 82 games, averaged 12.3 points and 8.8 boards and dominated the more heralded LaMarcus Aldridge in the first round of the playoffs.

• Ron Artest, acquired for a late first-round draft pick and a couple of deadweight salaries, did exactly what the Rockets hoped (on the court, at least) by providing a shot-creator to help out Yao and playing exquisite defense on the perimeter.

• Aaron Brooks, picked up with a late first-round draft choice, emerged as the starting point guard halfway through the year and tormented both Portland and the Lakers with his quickness in the playoffs.

• Von Wafer, picked up from the scrap heap in the offseason, averaged a point every two minutes in becoming a strikingly effective scorer off the bench.

• Carl Landry, acquired with a second-round draft choice, scored nearly as often as Wafer while shooting 57.4 percent from the floor.

The Rockets added one more name to that list at the trade deadline, sending Rafer Alston to Orlando and somehow landing Kyle Lowry from Memphis out of the deal. Lowry has his warts, but he is 10 years younger than Alston and a great defender, and he draws fouls by the bundle. He became the latest example of Houston's manufacturing a useful player from limited resources.

Unfortunately, the Rockets' big-money guys let them down. Most notably, McGrady soaked up $20 million in salary but played only 35 games, and I'm using the loosest possible definition of the word "play" here -- half the time he seemed disappointed that the game was carving a few hours from his busy schedule.

Battier, who has become something of a "Moneyball" icon due to his extraordinary plus-minus stats the past few seasons, missed 21 games and labored through foot problems in many others, resulting in a much more mortal plus-minus number. Yao, of course, played extremely well until the unfortunate injury in the Lakers series, and one still wonders if Houston might have been able to pull the upset had he stayed upright.

Offensively, the Rockets were a strong 3-point shooting team that ranked fifth in 3-point frequency (.254 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt) and 10th in accuracy. The Rockets can thank all the attention Yao drew for those numbers, but they did little else well. In particular, the perimeter players kept firing up bricks when they weren't hitting 3s. The top four Rockets in shot attempts per game after Yao were Artest, McGrady, Alston and Brooks, who shot 40.1, 38.8, 37.0 and 40.4 percent, respectively.

Defensively, the Rockets were much stronger, playing a conservative style designed to prevent free throw attempts and 3-pointers. Houston rated 28th in forcing turnovers, but finished second only to San Antonio in opponent free throw frequency (.257 free throw attempts per field-goal attempt) and permitted the fourth-fewest 3-point attempts (19.3 percent of opponent field-goal attempts).

In one aspect, the Rockets got just plain lucky. Houston opponents shot only 74.9 percent from the line, the worst mark in the NBA. This wasn't because Houston "defended" free throws better than the opposition; this was just a gift from the basketball gods. Relative to the league average of 77.1 percent, Houston saved 38 points over the course of the season, or nearly half a point a game. As such, the free throw discrepancy was worth about 1.28 wins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Offseason Moves

It was a busy offseason in Houston, especially after learning that Yao's recovery from the foot injury would not be a speedy one. The Rockets expect him to miss the entire season and the hope is that he can come back to his former level in 2010-11, but it's tricky enough that there are no guarantees. Meanwhile, Mutombo retired from his knee injury. The news on McGrady is better: He's shown enough progress over the summer that it's possible he'll return by opening night. It remains questionable how much zip he'll have left in his step, not to mention how much zest for the game he retains.

As a result, the Rockets spent the summer focused more on the future than on the present, spending nearly $9 million to acquire the rights to four young players while letting a few older ones move on.

Let Von Wafer leave and drafted Chase Budinger, Jermaine Taylor and Sergio Llull. Wafer got a good deal in Greece and decided to make the leap, leaving a scoring hole in the Houston bench. Houston drafted three players at his position, paying $6 million in total to acquire the rights to Budinger, Taylor and Llull as second-round picks on draft day. Llull has the most promise of the three but will stay in Europe for the time being, while Budinger and Taylor will compete for a rotation spot.

Let Ron Artest leave and signed Trevor Ariza for five years, $36 million. One of Houston's biggest decisions was making what effectively was a trade of small forwards with the Lakers, deciding to allow Artest to move on and signing Ariza to a five-year deal for the full midlevel exception. It made all kinds of sense for Houston, as Artest's antics were much easier to deal with on a short-term deal on a club with championship aspirations than on the rebuilding team that Houston carries into the coming season.

Ariza is a much better fit because he's still young (24) and still improving. While it's totally unrealistic to expect him to shoot the way he did in the playoffs -- he's a 29.9 percent career 3-point shooter -- he should provide an effective long-term solution at small forward. Houston also caught a break when the league granted an injury exception for Yao prior to Ariza's signing, enabling the Rockets to slot Ariza into the injury exception and pursue other players with their midlevel.

Traded for rights to David Andersen, signed him for three years, $7.5 million. The Rockets paid Atlanta $3 million and relinquished a second-round draft pick to get their mitts on Andersen, who has been one of Europe's most productive big men for the past half-decade. His translated European stats from the past several seasons show a PER in the 12-14 range. He's a consistent midrange shooter and can hit face up J's with a hand in his face, but he's the archetypal European softie and a subpar rebounder and defender. Only the first two years are guaranteed, so he's a decent gamble to supplement the frontcourt, especially since the team needs more offense.

Signed Pops Mensah-Bonsu to a one-year deal for the minimum. An athletic big man who can really rebound, Mensah-Bonsu adds another undersized big man to the Rockets' growing contingent: He's a 6-foot-9, 235-pound center. Signing Mensah-Bonsu gives the Rockets 17 players under contract, but it's likely that two older veterans with expiring deals -- Brent Barry and Brian Cook -- will either be bought out or traded to bring Houston back to the league roster limit of 15.

Traded James White to Denver for the rights to Axel Hervelle. The Rockets dealt White, a promising prospect who was among the best players in the D-League last season, because they had 17 players and 15 roster spots. Mainly they saved a bit of money, but unlike a lot of Europeans you see thrown into these deals, Hervelle isn't dead weight. He's a Belgian rebounding power forward who could plausibly crack an NBA roster at some point.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggest Strength: Wing Defense

The Rockets may not be as imposing as they were a year ago at the defensive end, but they're still going to be vexing for high-scoring wing players. Houston can throw a tag team of defenders at opposing 2s and 3s led by Battier, who should be fully recovered from last year's foot problems. His length at 6-8 makes him a huge obstacle for shooters, but it's his intelligence as a defender that really sets him apart: He's a master of forcing opponents into long 2s and then making a late challenge around their eyes.

Behind him is Ariza, another long 6-8 wing who adds the ability to zip into passing lanes for steals and blaze in from the weak side for blocked shots, and McGrady, who isn't exactly renowned for his intensity but causes problems with his sheer length at 6-8. Another factor here when the Rockets go small is Lowry, who is undersized at 6-0 but tough as nails and eminently capable of guarding 2s when opponents go with small backcourt combos.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggest Weakness: Frontcourt Size

Once Yao went out, the obvious difference in the Lakers series was Houston's Lilliputian frontline going up against 7-0 Pau Gasol and 7-1 Andrew Bynum. With Yao gone for the entire year, look for more of the same. Scola and Landry, Houston's likely starting frontcourt, each are listed at 6-9, and I emphasize "listed at" -- Landry in particular is more like 6-7. They're backed up by the even smaller Chuck Hayes, who at 6-6 is unquestionably the league's shortest center.

Andersen, at 7-0, is the only healthy player on the roster taller than 6-9, and he weighs just 235 pounds and abhors contact. Otherwise, it's more of the same in the Houston frontcourt: Deep reserves include 6-9 Cook and Mensah-Bonsu and 6-8 Joey Dorsey.

This is likely going to create problems against big teams like the Lakers, as neither Scola nor Landry has the size to defend top-notch post players without accumulating fouls. The presence of Yao and Mutombo largely insulated the Rockets from such pairings a year ago, but they won't have that protective cover this time around.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Outlook

Houston will unquestionably slide in the standings from a year ago. While the Artest-Ariza trade is at worst a wash, the same can't be said for the Yao-Andersen swap. Additionally, the Rockets took a step back on the bench by deciding to build for the future with White, Budinger and Taylor rather than re-signing Wafer and targeting another player with the leftover portion of their midlevel exception.

In particular, it's not clear how they're going to score. Scola, Ariza and Brooks will put up decent numbers and the vastly underrated Landry could be poised for a breakout year, but the bench has less fizz than day-old champagne and the lack of a go-to star will strain all the others to force up shots they wouldn't otherwise take. The early return of McGrady won't provide a panacea either, as he had been in a steady descent prior to the injury and will be working his way back into game shape.

Houston will still defend, despite its size disadvantage up front, and it's a given that Rick Adelman will squeeze as much from this roster as it can give. But the Western Conference is a cruel place to compete with an All-Star center sitting behind the bench in civilian clothes, so it's likely to be a difficult year in Houston. A strong return from McGrady could propel the Rockets to a playoff spot and yet another first-round exit, but that's about the ceiling here.

Prediction: 37-45, 4th in Southwest Division, 9th in Western Conference
Click to expand...

#1 burnshroom, Sep 28, 2009

1 person likes this.

ItsMyFault Contributing Member

Joined:

Jan 28, 2009

Messages:

15,646

Likes Received:

978

Only 37 wins.. COME ON, WHERE IS THE LOVE, BSPN?

#2 ItsMyFault, Sep 28, 2009
desi tmac91 Member

Joined:

Jun 26, 2008

Messages:

3,206

Likes Received:

240

37 wins is more than I'm expecting, not that bad of a analysis.

#3 desi tmac91, Sep 28, 2009
Hayesfan Contributing Member

Joined:

Nov 3, 2006

Messages:

10,900

Likes Received:

360

all the Hollinger love is gone with the Yao

That's okay when we finish above .500 everyone will be eating their words.

#4 Hayesfan, Sep 28, 2009
jump shooter Contributing Member

Joined:

Mar 14, 2000

Messages:

5,429

Likes Received:

145

He's right to a certain extent, the rockets frontline is a bunch of midgets.

#5 jump shooter, Sep 28, 2009
durvasa Contributing Member

Joined:

Feb 11, 2006

Messages:

38,004

Likes Received:

15,466

Hollinger's preseason analysis is always well worth the read.

Thanks for posting it.

#6 durvasa, Sep 28, 2009
Carl Herrera Contributing Member

Joined:

Feb 16, 2007

Messages:

45,153

Likes Received:

21,570

Lind of intereting thought on the opponent FT%. Hollinger said it's just luck-- maybe not, though. Perhaps Rockets were smart enough to avoid hacking high % FT shooters more than other teams. It would be interesting to see if we look at the seasonlong FT% of those who went to the line vs. the Rockets and do a weighted average (by the number of FT attempted while playing vs. Rockets), whether that "expected value" would be lower than the normal league avg.

#7 Carl Herrera, Sep 28, 2009

echu888 Member

Joined:

Mar 27, 2006

Messages:

719

Likes Received:

25

Wow, predicting below .500. Pretty rough, but possibly accurate considering the anchor of our offense and defense disappearing.

Here's to hoping for a surprise season from the Rockets.

#8 echu888, Sep 28, 2009
burnshroom Member

Joined:

Jun 26, 2006

Messages:

2,055

Likes Received:

1,159

Carl Herrera said:

Lind of intereting thought on the opponent FT%. Hollinger said it's just luck-- maybe not, though. Perhaps Rockets were smart enough to avoid hacking high % FT shooters more than other teams. It would be interesting to see if we look at the seasonlong FT% of those who went to the line vs. the Rockets and do a weighted average (by the number of FT attempted while playing vs. Rockets), whether that "expected value" would be lower than the normal league avg.
Click to expand...

Matt Bullard's vaunted "Free Throw Defense"

#9 burnshroom, Sep 28, 2009
dachuda86 Member

Joined:

May 3, 2008

Messages:

16,308

Likes Received:

3,580

writing of the rox again? you'd think they'd learn.

#10 dachuda86, Sep 28, 2009
Raven Member

Joined:

Jul 24, 2002

Messages:

14,984

Likes Received:

1,024

If the Rockets miss the playoffs, let's hope they fall far enough to get a high draft pick.

#11 Raven, Sep 28, 2009
Steve_Francis_rules Member

Joined:

Dec 11, 1999

Messages:

8,467

Likes Received:

300

Carl Herrera said:

Lind of intereting thought on the opponent FT%. Hollinger said it's just luck-- maybe not, though. Perhaps Rockets were smart enough to avoid hacking high % FT shooters more than other teams. It would be interesting to see if we look at the seasonlong FT% of those who went to the line vs. the Rockets and do a weighted average (by the number of FT attempted while playing vs. Rockets), whether that "expected value" would be lower than the normal league avg.
Click to expand...

That's a really interesting idea.

My initial take was to disagree with Hollinger because it's quite possible that because the Rockets make teams work much harder on the offensive end than most other teams, players were tired and missed more free throws. This of course, wouldn't be as easily testable as your idea.

#12 Steve_Francis_rules, Sep 28, 2009

1 person likes this.
ScriboErgoSum Contributing Member

Joined:

Aug 5, 2002

Messages:

3,138

Likes Received:

355

I agree with a lot of it, but I think we're going to be a lot better offensively than people expect. We have a lot of guys who can play in the system Rick wants to run. I think we'll see a lot of movement, pick and rolls, and open mid range jump shots. If we don't plummet defensively (and I don't expect us to), that will be enough to win more than 41 games and make a serious run for seeds 6-8.

#13 ScriboErgoSum, Sep 28, 2009

RedRedemption Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 21, 2009

Messages:

32,471

Likes Received:

7,652

37 wins? WTF.

I'm expecting at least 45 and maybe a 8th seed if we make a playoff push deep in the regular season.

#14 RedRedemption, Sep 28, 2009
Ziggy QUEEN ANON

Joined:

Jun 11, 1999

Messages:

36,806

Likes Received:

13,186

I knew Hollinger wrote this without having to look. Is there anyway we can rep Hollinger? He is always on-target.

#15 Ziggy, Sep 28, 2009
LCII Contributing Member

Joined:

Nov 7, 2006

Messages:

8,609

Likes Received:

395

This is a very realistic assessment of our current roster, not too optimistic about the potentials of our young and new players, at the same time not too pessimistic and dismissive.

#16 LCII, Sep 28, 2009
ThaShark316_28 Member

Joined:

Feb 22, 2007

Messages:

4,012

Likes Received:

130

I got em at 38-44...so...

#17 ThaShark316_28, Sep 28, 2009
Thefabman Member

Joined:

Nov 14, 2007

Messages:

3,945

Likes Received:

1,501

i came in this thread expecting to see a prediction of 38 wins so yeah from the outside its pretty spot on, i believe will be between 45 and 50 wins myself but thats just me i guess

#18 Thefabman, Sep 28, 2009

JeopardE Contributing Member

Joined:

Jun 29, 2006

Messages:

7,418

Likes Received:

246

The Rockets have been consistently near the top of the league in "free throw defense" for the past few years now. Hollinger is flat out wrong --- that is no coincidence or luck. The Rockets play a brand of intelligent defense that is rarely found elsewhere in the league, led by Shane Battier. One of their key disciplines is to avoid fouling high percentage free throw shooters. The Rockets generally make an effort to avoid fouling at all, tend to play physical and force a lot of long missed jumpshots (both of which have a negative impact on confidence at the free throw line), and do a better job than average of sending lower-percentage shooters to the line when possible.

#19 JeopardE, Sep 28, 2009

1 person likes this.
airbulllard Contributing Member

Joined:

Apr 27, 2003

Messages:

1,137

Likes Received:

14

LCII said:

This is a very realistic assessment of our current roster, not too optimistic about the potentials of our young and new players, at the same time not too pessimistic and dismissive.
Click to expand...

i agree. i thought the analysis was right on as i was reading it.

some people think that they have to hope for the best for their team, but sometimes those hopes are unrealistic.. in the houston texans case, they are always unrealistic. i hate that some people here blast people for having their own 'realistic' expectations, saying they're not true fans or whatever

#20 airbulllard, Sep 28, 2009

1 person likes this.

(You must log in or sign up to post here.)

Page 1 of 4

Share This Page