let's here what peopel have to say about what states they think are in play and what happens: Too close to call: Florida (27 ev), Ohio (20), Delaware (3), Wisconsin (10), New Mexico (5), Iowa (7). EV projection before TCTC states: Kerry 239, Bush 227. Other states that could swing: Kerry states are New Hampshire (4), PA (21), Michigan (17). Bush states are Nevada (5), Colorado (9). TCTC Projections: Bush Wins Ohio, Florida, New Mexico: 279 EV (49.5-50% of popular vote) Kerry Wins Delaware, Iowa and Wisconsin: 259 EV (49% of popular vote) Essentially 10 EVs could swing it to a draw (and 11+ to a win for kerry) but my call is 279-259 for W, with a very narrow margin on the popular vote.
Electoral-vote.com has Kerry ahead as of this morning and projects him to be the winner with 306 electoral votes... We shall see soon [maybe].
I think Will has Kerry at 299 on slate.msn.com. I not predicting a winner. I'm hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
Kerry 311 Bush 227 All of the Mid-west states will swing the same way (towards Kerry). Florida, New Mexico, Penn and Hawaii will also go to Kerry. Election gets called before 11:00...
The webmaster at Electoral-vote is an unabashed liberal. The guy at ElectionProjection is an unabashed conservative. Is there any mystery why Electoral-vote has Kerry winning and ElectionProjection has Bush winning? The only mystery is why simpletons take stock in it... Yawn... Poll following is fun, but it is a mindless substitute for politics.
Amen, dude. If the media spent half as much time talking about real issues instead of what some poll means, things might actually improve.
True, but the webmaster of electoral-vote.com is also Andrew Tanenbaum, the world renowned computer scientist and algorithms genius. He knows a thing or two about statistics, if you ask me.
Then why does he blindly use the latest Zogby poll each day to decide states instead of some algorithm to incorporate more polls into the equation?
He's used 937 polls from quite a few different pollsters since September. They are not just Zogby polls. http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/allpolls.csv
But now he almost exclusively using the Zogby daily tracking poll. Bottom line is that he isn't averaging or doing any statistical technique in the battleground states. He's just using the latest poll. Hardly scientific. Next....
TJ: You and I don't often agree, but, damn, I gotta give it up to you on this one. I couldn't agree more with your general assessment of these polling figures. This race is so tight right now, there is no way to predict the outcome. I've talked to and read things from people I know who work on these things for a living. Three guys I've worked with in the past are running the DNC campaign in Iowa right now and I've been getting info from a couple of folks I know who work for the GOP. From everything I can tell, it is going to be extremely close. If I had to guess, I would guess that Kerry squeaks it out based on the very heavy turnout which tends to favor democrats. But, either one of them could win it and there is no sense in trying to make predictions at this point given the closeness of the race.
I don't think it will be nearly as close as everyone thinks All [historical] signs and trends point towards a Kerry victory The reason I've always thought this election won't be as close as some predict is the huge amount of 18-29 year olds that just don't have a traditional home phone (they are cell phone only users) and thus are not really accounted for in the polls Zogby has a new poll that is trying to shed some light on how this critical group of people will vote. Young Mobile Voters Pick Kerry Over Bush, 55% to 40%, Rock the Vote/Zogby Poll Reveals: National Text-Message Poll Breaks New Ground Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters. The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com). The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points. The poll also found that only 2.3% of 18-29 year-old respondents said they did not plan to vote, and another .5% who were not sure if they would. The results of the survey are weighted for region, gender, and political party. The Rock the Vote Mobile political poll was conducted using a sample group from Rock the Vote Mobile’s 120,000-subscriber base. Participants in the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a civic engagement initiative launched last March by Rock the Vote and Motorola, Inc. (NYSE: MOT), responded to this poll between October 27 and October 30. “The results of this text-message poll mirror what we’re seeing in our more conventional polls,” said John Zogby, CEO and president of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International. “Among 18-29 year-olds, Kerry leads the President by 14 points—55% to 41% in our current daily tracking poll—virtually identical to these results. Our text-message poll seems to have been validated by this experiment. All in all, I think we’ve broken some new ground in polling.” Mr. Zogby went on to note that Zogby International plans to explore future text-message surveys in response to concerns throughout the polling industry about reaching mobile telephone users. He added that text-messaging has become an important tool for political activists on both sides of the political spectrum, and Zogby International will be at the forefront of technology shifts that affect polling. Officials of the non-partisan Rock the Vote praised the joint effort with Zogby and Motorola. The text-message poll marks a departure from current industry standards for polling, but promises to be a first step toward addressing the growing number of Americans who rely primarily—if not solely—on mobile phones. “Rock the Vote’s mission is to encourage young Americans to be heard in the political process,” said Jehmu Greene, president of Rock the Vote. “Because this group has been increasingly underrepresented in traditional polls, our mobile phone poll conducted with Zogby takes a first step toward capturing the political attitudes of youth voters—reaching them while they are on the go.” Motorola officials said they were pleased with the poll’s outreach, as well as the large number of respondents. “Motorola has enthusiastically supported the RTVMO platform throughout this election year because mobile technology can change the way we live our lives,” said Kathleen Finato, senior marketing director for Motorola. “We believe that by engaging in the political process through Rock the Vote Mobile, young adults will continue to be civically engaged beyond the presidential election.” The survey consisted of one two-part question: whether the recipient planned to vote, and which candidate they planned to vote for. Motorola sent the question out to cell users. Additionally, Rock the Vote and Motorola are using Rock the Vote Mobile to provide constant election updates to mobile phone users. For the remainder of the election season, Rock the Vote Mobile will send election updates to any text-messaging-capable cell-phone users who register at their website, http://www.rtvmo.com. The results of the survey are weighted for region, gender, and political party. While the nature of the poll is outside polling industry standards, Zogby International is committed to getting the most accurate possible results using its proven weighting methods that ensure a sample more accurately reflects the make-up of the general population.
At this point, the polls hold as much value as the Washington Redskins arguement. It's possible that as many as 4 states could be decided by fewer than 1,500 votes.
