...and the Heat DO have the capacity to crank up their defense.Riley has those guys on the same page.
New Jack, but alternatively Detroit and Chicago are superior to Dallas defensively, and neither could slow Mia much. As for Dallas guards defending, they sure didn't slow Parker or Manu down much (both over 20PPG) and Wade is like the best of both players rolled into one. Josh Howard I think is their only player with size and quickness who stands a chance one on one with Wade (I don't think Harris or Terry are the defenders of Hinrich/Gordon, they are smaller and/or softer players), but the problem with this match-up over the long term is Josh Howards lack of a brain. Wade certainly should not have any more trouble with Dallas than he has had versus Det/Chi--and he was the best player on the court and an efficient offensive player versus both. Additionally, as a #2 option Shaq looks wide open versus Dallas, Tim Duncan showed the big time hole in Dallas interior. Dallas can't really go small on the front line unless you try to go Dirk or Howard on Shaq (or his sub Zo), and that would get ugly. I think Dallas has to live off Diop and Damp being in the game when Shaq is in the game (limiting Dallas team speed and limiting their offense). Shaq will foul out Damp in about 10-15MPG so Diop is going to have play great. He has played well in stretches but they will need him for long minutes. I think Walker defensively will be a problem for Mia. Pick your poison, he can't handle Dirk or J Howard at all. But Walker I expect to be focused (vs former team) and does other things positive on the court (rebounds and offense) and is savvy. Mia can always goes Haslem (a quick and tough 4 not bad to put on Dirk) and Posey versus Dirk and Howard if they are getting roasted, I think that a whole lot better than Shaq versus any C Dallas puts up there. So overall, not that Dallas can't present some problems for Mia defensively in the half court (Dirk and the occasional guard penetration), but Mia presents far more problems to Dallas in the half court (2 very bad one 1 on 1 covers). Further, Miami will be one of the hardest teams (outside Detroit) for Dallas to bait into an uptempo game like they did versus SA, Riley/Heat guards will not fall into that trap.
I think you're overrating Miami based on their play against a struggling Pistons team, and OK-but-not-great Chicago and New Jersey teams. Dallas faced Miami twice this season. They won by 13 on the road early in the season when Shaq was hurt. And then late in the season, Shaq had 23/8, Wade had 16 & 8 assists and Dallas won by 36. Dallas has far more talent, speed, and depth than Miami once you get past the top two players, and (assuming they beat Phoenix) will have beaten two teams that test you in completely different ways the last two series. Even with Parker, Ginobli,and Duncan all having good series, Dallas won that series in the end. I don't think Dallas will see anything against Miami that will be new for them in that regard. Even if Wade and Shaq do well, Dallas will win the battle at basically every other position, on the bench, etc.
people were saying if they didn't know who they wanted to lose more, sa or dallas. if feel the same about this series.
Dallas barely beat a Spurs team who themselves had plenty of difficulty with Sac. Dallas has had difficulty with a Phx team that lost 6 games to very mediocre playoff teams even before the WCF. Mia is statistically a lot better in the regular season and playoffs in the most most respects than Dallas (FG, OFG, differential), Dallas has survived because of rebouding, TO and FTs advantages, one of which (rebounding) will be gone. The theory you seem to be saying is the way the Pistons beat the Lakers like 3 years ago (breaking up the whole the best players at the top theory determine the outcome)--that you can beat the best two players by being better 3-8. But Wade, Shaq and their teammates are far more on the same page than that Lakers' team (much better chemistry), and Walker, Williams, Posey, Haslem, Zo, GP make a better supporting cast, particularly once Karl Malone went down off that Laker team. Two regular seasons game IMO are not relevant, particularly in that this Mia team is playing much better than they did in the regular season. Detroit players are being very upfront about how well Miami is playing, the same two time defending EC champs who had the best record in the league this year.
I think the success of a number of teams has shown that a variety of styles can win. The Suns have made the WCF the last two years with an up-tempo/limited-defense style. The Spurs won a title last year with a more traditional style. The Heat are likely to make the finals this year the same way. Dallas made the WCF through ridiculous depth. Detroit has made the ECF the last two years and won a title through the defense / no-superstar strategy. I'm not a believer that you have to win the NBA title to prove a method works - if you can win two or three rounds of the playoffs, you can win four - you just might run up against a better team (as the Suns and Pistons did last year, for example). I think you're looking at everything from a "how can Dallas matchup with Miami" perspective, but not considering that Miami has to deal with Dallas too. No one's been able to stop the Dallas offense yet either - including the very defensively sound/strong Spurs. They can exploit any number of matchups all over the court, and plug-and-play players however they best fit. Regardless, barring some major turnarounds, we'll get to find out in the few weeks.
It's a pure irony to see the second best center in the NBA shoots 25% (!) from the stripe and becomes a total liability on the offensive end and cost his team a series against the Heat. And the media and the league call this guy UNDERRATED? I will tell you what. My ass is more underrated than that overrated POS.
I am rooting for the Heat to win it all like there is no tomorrow. Anything/one that keeps Dal-les from winning it all will gain me as a life-long fan...well, may be at least for this season
Desert Scar: I think you're REALLY overrating Miami. Sure they have handled Detroit with ease, but this is a Detroit team that barely escaped the Cavaliers. I don't think Miami has a prayer against Dallas. As much as it sickens me to say it, the Dallas Mavericks are simply the best team in the NBA. I think that Detroit, when on top of their game, can give them a run for their money, but Detroit is done. Shaq will "get his", but as opposed to his younger years, that now means 25 and 10 as opposed to 40 and 15. Dallas can live with that. They have two decent big men to throw at him in Diop and Dampier. Dallas will beat them simply on sheer depth. Miami has absolutely nobody for either Dirk or Howard. Haslem and Walker are both too slow and Posey is the most overrated player in the game today. You can wear out Wade making him chase around Terry and Harris and pound him in the paint with Stackhouse. Dallas just has too much firepower.
So what? The Mavs are now in a dogfight against a Suns team that almost got beat by a mediocre lakers squad. What the hell does that prove? Well the Mavericks offensive juggernaut ran into a brick wall in Phoenix tonight - I don't see why you think the Shaq/Diop mismatch is nothing compared to Dirk v. Posey. Freaking Diop was getting posted up by Boris Diaw tonight, and Dirk could do nothing against Phx. I don't think Shaq will have too much trouble with a guy like Diop after dealing with Ben Wallace.
thacabbage, "I think you're REALLY overrating" Dallas. Forget the chalkboard comparisons because it doesn't explain the WCFs. For some reason it's tied 2-2. The Mavs aren't playing well and their vaunted depth isn't doing them much good. The Heat are playing solid basketball. A very good team not on top of it's game (Mavs) will likely lose to a very good team on top of it's game (Heat) in the Finals. If Dirk doesn't carry them on his back the Mavs may not even make the Finals. I still think they will though.
After watching the last 2+ weeks of basketball I don't see how anyone can conclude anything other than Miami is a strong favorite now. The Mavs are a good team on offense and defense, but great on neither. Barring an injury to Wade or Shaq, even down 3-1 IMO Det has the best shot to derial Miami. Miami is playing too well in terms of half court offense and defense--born out in statistics and results against decent playoff opponents-- and have two terrible individual matchups for the Mavs to handle (at SG & C). Miami hasn't come out of nowhere. They tied for the best record last year and might have won the title (surely make the finals) had Wade not gotten injured. They sleep walked much of this year trying to get health and chemistry knowing they had the 2 seed in the east sown up, but they have the two most impossible individual covers in the league and their role players are playing well. That wins 90% of playoff series and it is why they have had the edge (when healthy) on the Det the last 2 years, and why SA edged Det last year. Wade and Shaq can totally smell it this year, Dallas will be happy to have finally got past the Spurs and make the WCF in a close and thrilling 6-7 game series (I still seriously doubt they lose to Phx, Phx just really isn't that good).
I disagree. I think the Mavs are a great offensive team, and a good defensive team. During the regular season, they were 1st in offensive rating (points scored per possession) and 10th in defensive rating (points allowed per possession) according to basketball-reference. San Antonio was the number one defensive team in the league during the regular season, and they had a tough time stopping the Mavs. I think Dallas should be the favorite in a series against Miami.
That is a weird stat. Dallas shot at 46% in the regular season and 46% in the playoffs. They actually have shot worse than their opponents in the playoffs the last two series, very weird for them to advance (they have made it up rebounding, FT diff and some TOs diff with the Spurs). Overall, 46% isn't special at all. Granted that doesn't include FTs and 3s which I gather is part of the offensive rating you cite. In the regular season Miami was #1 in points per shot (which does account for 3s and FTs), Dallas was #2. In the playoffs Dallas is middle of the road in PPS, withd SA (with 60% of the games vs Dallas) and Mia at 1-2. Also, Mia is taking more 3s and hitting at a higher clip than Dallas in the playoffs. FT% and TO differential seems to be the only offensive efficiency edge Dallas is showing over Mia (Mia is the EC best rebouding team so Dal won't have this major edge that has been a big part of their success the last 2 series). IMO if you look at measures of efficiency in the playoffs--and this Mia team is playing its best ball now--Dallas won't fare well versus them despite analogous defensive competition. And on defense it is no comparison. Dallas is 12th of out 16 playoff teams in OFG%, and that includes 4 games with Memphis to balance out their games against good offensive teams. Miami is #2 or #3 depending on the criteria. One totaly aside tidbit, 3 playoff teams are rebouding at .54 or greater (Mia in the east is the best at .52) they are: LAC, Dall and LAL. Anyone guess a trend here?
Miami's been getting screwed with the calls tonight, but that's to be expected at the Palace. Only being down 4 at halftime is pretty encouraging considering that Shaq has been a nonfactor
boy they're lucky that blocked shot by Shaq deflected to prince for a 3 - heat could have pulled to 1 or tied and I think the momentum would have totally swung, now they're up 6 and sitting much prettier.
Pistons wont go anywhere with the way Chauncey, Sheed, and Rip are shooting. They need to step it up if they wanna make a comeback.
You know the only reason why I kind of don't want the Heat to win is the way Riley threw Stan Van Gundy under the bus. Riles basically abandoned his team in midstream when they were headed nowhere fast despite nearly a DECADE of his coach and GM-ing and stuck SVG with a team of nobodies and a young Wade. SvG takes these guys, gets them to overachieve and play well at the end of his first year. Good season last year, an unfortunate D-wade injury away from going to the finals. Then Shaq gets hurt, they struggle a bit, and Riley uses that as an excuse to muscle in on SVG and steal the glory after SVG did all the work. What a douche. I used to like Riley in the 80's. Not anymore.
