Morey has talked a lot about how his draft strategy is to always take the best player available. This made a lot of sense when the Rockets were looking to contend and often picking in the 20s of the draft -- go with the best talent. One notable exception to this strategy: during the Kevin Martin press conference last year, Morey said that they would look to replace Carl Landry through the draft (http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=182820). I didn't think much of the comment at the time, but now thinking back on it, it appears that Morey was looking more at need than BPA. In the end, the Rockets got both: Patrick Patterson. I believe Feigen mentioned that Paul George/Xavier Henry were also high on the Rockets wish list, so perhaps they were still going with the BPA strategy after all. The question is: what should we do for the 2011 draft? I don't want this thread to get into the question of specific prospects -- there's a forum for that. But there's also a HUGE hole in the middle for us at center.. and it's been there for two years. Do you want the Rockets to keep their strategy of taking the best player available or would you rather them focus in on finding the best big man/center available?
It depends where we're picking. If we're able to trade up into the top 5, then definitely BPA. If we're stuck down in the 12-14 range, as long as the distance isn't too crazy, then I would lean towards need. If I had to choose one for every pick, no matter what, it would be BPA. It's too bad the Blazers didn't think like this when they took Oden with the #1 pick. Pugs
I posted yesterday in the "Who do you want to draft?" thread that I preferred targeting a project 4/5. Now, I'm starting to have second thoughts. The idea of rolling into next season with a rotation at the five of this rookie + Thabeet + Yao/Hayes (re-signed) isn't exactly the safest strategy in the world. 1) Who knows if/when this rookie will be ready to contribute?, 2) Who knows if Thabeet will ever be able to contribute?, 3) Will Yao break his foot for the 75th time? These are all serious questions that plague that strategy. The only 'constant' in that group is the Chuckwagon. So, on second thought, I'm thinking just stick with drafting the BPA.
The only time you draft need over BPA is if you're set at superstar(s) and not role players. Otherwise it's stupid. That said, obviously positional bias has to be a factor. A center that grades out similarly to a SF would obviously be ranked higher, due to rarity of big men. But that's inherent in player evaluation in general. Once you factor everything(independent of your own roster), you take the BPA. Unless, of course, you have a Yao and a T-Mac and you just need some role players to surround them with.
If the Rockets stay at 12-14 and early to mid 20s then BPA. IF they move up in the draft to top 5, then go for a big man with length and size...Kanter, Perry Jones, Sullinger or Williams.
That's only if your looking to make the playoffs. If we commit to developing then the having that type of rotation won't be a concern. Plus the 2012 draft is supposed to be loaded, and the Rockets have another 3 picks in that draft as well. If we can get our own pick as high as possible, it will go along way at rebuilding our roster through talent.
Draft the best talent over need, we already got #2 overall draft in Thabeet, just need to work with him and give him some playing time to develope. Adelman wont even play a #2 drafted center, what make you think he'll give any playing time to a center way down the draft. If we drafted need over talent, we probably end up with Whiteside over Patterson, look where Whiteside is, played one game then send down to D-League, now sitting out the season with knee surgery. It's a gamble, and I rather bet on the one with the best odds and use the winnings to trade for what I need, it's better than draft on need and pray we don't end up with nothing.
BPA unless Jonas Valanciunas is still on the board. He's raw and not NBA ready but he's got upside. <iframe title="YouTube video player" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/O4jnJUhd4I8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe> <iframe title="YouTube video player" width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/A0PRXLHFDZg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
I see it this way concerning the coming draft: we already drafted for need by trading for Thabeet. If you're just looking for a rookie to fit in our position of need, he is it. The chance he suceeds is honestly no worse than the typical flier taken on centers in the draft anyway. Now, we can draft for the best player. If that best player also happens to be a center, so be it.
History tells you to always go BPA over need. Do you think Portland would draft Sam Bowie, or Detroit would take Darko again?
In general, the NBA draft is rarely deep enough that you want to chase need. Your odds are good that your need pick will end up being underwhelming, and in the worst cases you risk a Bowie or Oden fiasco. (Good) Centers, followed by PGs, followed by 4s are the toughest positions to dig out of the draft. Wings (and Tweeners) are a dime a dozen. If you are outside of the top 10 (most years, top 5 or even top 2), you're better off with the mindset that you are looking for a rotation guy off your bench. Morey would be high as a kite if he thought he could remedy our center issues with picks #12 and #23. The season was a great demonstration that the NBA is a star-driven have/have not league. Stuff your roster 12 deep with good rotation guys but no stud and you get to tread the 0.500 waters if things go well. We're in terrible need of a franchise player, and the 5 and 3 positions are sketchy. Ideally, we want a franchise center, but history shows you have to luck into one. You see one every 4 or 5 years in the draft. This draft is considered to be very low on star power and centers. A small handful of intriguing SFs that could break out as stars, and Kyrie Irving is also flagged as a potential star PG. The PFs aren't exciting (undersized or underskilled) IMO, the Rockets should go into this draft: a) Looking to swing a major trade with the picks as sweetners. b) Looking to trade up and snag Perry Jones c) Trade out for a future #1(s) (better draft classes) We have 9 roster spots ironed in for next season, 11 if you consider Chase and Dragon shoe in options, 12 if the team retains Chuck. That would be 3 roster spots left, and the Rockets hold 3 picks this draft. Filling those spots with guys you aren't excited about seems pointless, especially since it locks you out of using your MLE to chase a FA. I say, pile them together and go after Perry Jones, Harrison Barnes, Jared Sullinger, or Terrence Jones. Get one guy with a ceiling. That or swing a deal for someone like Cousins. Hell use a pick as sweetner to dump Brad Miller on Cleveland or Toronto. Whatever you do, don't come away with three 6-8 to 6-9 tweener forwards that just chew up roster spots with multiyear deals.
With this draft there really isnt alot of options where the Rockets are going to be drafting to draft based on need. The one exception would be to take Keith Benson (who most likely will be an NBA PF) alot earlier than projected in the draft. He might be the only player that can play the NBA center position in the draft outside of Enes Kanter and Jonas Valanciunas who should be early lottery picks anyways. However taking Benson late in the first round could be a huge mistake since there will likely be more proven players at the next level like Kawhi Leonard and Chris Singleton available. If they can land him with their Orlando pick(if the Suns make the playoffs) or their 2nd round pick, then its a valid pickup based on need. Then again, is he going to be much better than Jordan Hill and Thabeet... maybe not. This draft is littered with alot of talented wing players, and there more than likely will be a couple solid wings that fall to the Rockets that NOBODY sees coming, and we find out that the Rockets have by far the best scouts in the NBA.
For a traditional rebuilding approach, I'd agree. I just don't think that's DM's mindset moving forward. I think we're sort of 'rebuilding on the fly' meaning we're shaking things up all the while trying to be competitive. Having said that, a rookie + Thabeet + Yao's next comeback tour provides little sense of security or stability at the 5. The only constant there is the Chuckwagon.
baller4life: I get where you're coming from -- our rotations at center are a mess. But if we're not getting one from the draft, then I take it you're assuming we'll grab one in FA? What's to stop us from doing both? We could go after a Dalembert type player while letting Thabeet/2011 rookie develop/learn. I think the Rockets and (especially) Chuck Hayes both want the Chuckwagon playing back at his natural position -- but without him, we have nobody capable of giving us quality minutes at the C spot. emjohn: Great post -- I agree with a lot of what you said. I don't really consider the 6-8/6-9 tweeners as someone filling our biggest need anyways (center). I've wanted the Rockets to use their assets to move up in this draft since before the season.. I think there should be an even greater urgency to do so knowing that there's a big drop off after the first eight picks or so. everyone else: I probably could have framed the OP better. It isn't necessarily BPA vs. Need -- it's more Best player available vs. best big man available.
Best player available... I don't think the Rockets are in a position (yet) to do anything else. They could upgrade every single position. I can't seem to find it so I don't know if this is something I heard on the radio, read in an article or was told directly, but I'm pretty sure Daryl's philosophy is BPA, but leans more towards fit the higher up in the draft he goes. I think that makes a lot of sense when you have building blocks like Yao and McGrady, though not sure it applies now.
The draft is such a crap shoot in itself. You want to increase the odds of your pick not turning out a bust as best as you can. BPA is always the wiser way for basketball because the talent pool is so shallow. One jackpot star player, no matter what position he plays, can turn a whole franchise around. You can always adjust roster balance by trading.
In the first round BPA for sure. Try to address need with free agency or trades. We have two first rounders (and other conditional second rounders I think), so I think we might be able to cover both BPA and need with our picks. In the second round, if the players are pretty much evenly matched, you can try to lean over to the need side a little more. But if there is someone who kind of stands out and is a sleeper type player with high upside you might lean to BPA thinking here too.
