1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Does it Really Matter Where We Pick After the Top 4?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by vator, Mar 27, 2022.

?

Without a Consensus Top 5 Player, Does it Matter If We Draft at 5 or 8

  1. Yes it Matters! There is a Specific Player I’m Targeting at 5 That I Think Can Be a Star

    23 vote(s)
    67.6%

  2. No, Not Really. The Guys Between 5-10 Haven’t Really Distinguished Themselves

    11 vote(s)
    32.4%
Page 1 of 3
  1. vator

    vator Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    6,574
    Likes Received:
    13,918
    I’m very very pro tank. We suffered through an awful regular season and being guaranteed a top 5 pick had become my way of coping with my frustration and disappointment knowing there was a silver lining ahead.

    BUT

    As I look at the way the draft odds work again with fresh eyes after waking up frustrated, the Rockets have the SAME EXACT odds to pick 1-4 as long as they have one of the three worst records and very slight differences with the fourth worst. They have not actually in any way altered their chances of getting Chet, Jabari, Paolo, or Jaden. What is REALLY at stake is being relegated to drafting between picks 5-8.

    There is no consensus 5th pick in my opinion. Maybe the Rockets braintrust believe if they don’t land top 4 it doesn’t REALLY matter if they pick 5 or if the pick 8 because those guys hold similar value to them.

    So what is your opinion?

     
    #1 vator, Mar 27, 2022
    DeBeards, CriscoKidd, i3artow i3aller and 3 others like this.
  2. xaos

    xaos Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2015
    Messages:
    6,204
    Likes Received:
    15,500
    Without knowing much about the prospects, it seems one of the real wild cards here would be how the Rockets view Sharpe or how the league views Sharpe
     
    #2 xaos, Mar 27, 2022
    Nook, clutchdabear, CriscoKidd and 5 others like this.
  3. xaos

    xaos Member

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2015
    Messages:
    6,204
    Likes Received:
    15,500
    I've also wondered this same thing last night. We won a game last night and increased our odds at 6th pick by 20%. In this specific draft is there going to be a dramatic difference between 5th and 6th?
     
    #3 xaos, Mar 27, 2022
  4. lakersuck2

    lakersuck2 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2016
    Messages:
    2,504
    Likes Received:
    4,480
    This. If Sharpe declares, he's 5 and he's far above everyone after him.
     
    #4 lakersuck2, Mar 27, 2022
    clutchdabear, H. Christopher, DreamR and 3 others like this.
  5. vator

    vator Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    6,574
    Likes Received:
    13,918
    He’s the wild card to me. He was the number 1 player in his class before reclassifying. After him I’m thinking I’d feel the same way if we drafted the following players.

    Jalen Duren
    Benedict Mathuren
    Adrian Griffin
    Shaedon Sharpe
    Keegan Murray
    Tari Eason
    etc.

    I mean I think I could talk myself into being a little excited about any of these guys, but nothing like I would be if we picked top 4. This draft is kinda mid.
     
    #5 vator, Mar 27, 2022
    ApacheWarrior, CriscoKidd and xaos like this.
  6. sealclubber1016

    sealclubber1016 Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2010
    Messages:
    19,190
    Likes Received:
    28,054
    There is no real argument in favor of playing veterans to win games down the stretch. A guarantee of a least 5 is better than possibly picking 6,7, or 8.

    However, I personally don't think it's a big deal because of how much the draft seems to fall off after 4, and the difference in odds of the top 4 picks is negligible. Even if we fall to the dreaded 4th spot, there's still better than a 50/50 chance that we end up with a top 5 pick. People saying the season is "ruined" or a "waste" and acting like the entire rebuild is doomed because of this disaster scenario (possibly dropping from 5 to 7) is more than a little absurd.
     
    #6 sealclubber1016, Mar 27, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2022
    snowconeman22, CriscoKidd and vator like this.
  7. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 1999
    Messages:
    13,632
    Likes Received:
    14,680
    This is where GMs and scouts get paid to do there job. There isn’t an obvious 5th or 6th best prospect but I’m sure at least one of Murray, Sharpe, Mathurin, maybe Griffen, is gonna be a star. It’s up to the front office to get the pick right, no matter where we pick.

    and keep in mind that if we somehow finish 4th worst instead of in the bottom 3, we still have a great chance of picking in the top 4.

    it’s annoying given that we’ve been consistently bad all year, but playing to win, and now the only thing that’s changed is other teams are blatantly trying to lose.
     
    #7 Aruba77, Mar 27, 2022
    snowconeman22, everyday eddie, xaos and 1 other person like this.
  8. vator

    vator Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    6,574
    Likes Received:
    13,918
    I just want to say I agree with you if your sentiments are we should lose out and get the highest pick possible. That’s what I want to see happen. That being said, this draft kind of looks like buns in regards to guys who can be franchise changers. It’s a role players draft or at least that’s kind of what it looks like right now.

    You always want the best pick possible, Gives you more flexibility to have your pick of the litter or trade back if a team has targeted a specific player.

    I’m just not so sure there is a drop off from guys projected to go 5,6,7, and 8 when I look at the draft board. I feel like you could make an argument for any of them on this team. Maybe the front office feels the same way.
     
    #8 vator, Mar 27, 2022
    CriscoKidd likes this.
  9. Hank McDowell

    Hank McDowell Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2002
    Messages:
    6,119
    Likes Received:
    9,738
    I’m not unhappy they won against Portland, as bad as the Blazers are it would have been hard not to, but now it’s time to be smart and rest the vets.
     
    #9 Hank McDowell, Mar 27, 2022
    jboslett, clos4life, vator and 3 others like this.
  10. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2011
    Messages:
    28,468
    Likes Received:
    43,680
    Yes?

    You want to pick who you think is the best prospect, we get exactly who we want if we pick #1, every pick after that we lose options.

    There isn't a consensus but a choice of Chet/Smith/Ivey/Banchero is better then a choice without them
     
    #10 ThatBoyNick, Mar 27, 2022
    harold bingo and Newlin like this.
  11. vator

    vator Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    6,574
    Likes Received:
    13,918
    Oh for sure, but even though we don’t talk about it, there was an unfortunate and unlikely scenario that could’ve dropped us to pick number 5 even with the worst record. The NBA put these bizarre odds in place to deter tanking by giving the bottom 4 teams same to similar odds to land at picks 1-4. It’s what happens after those 4 picks that varies the most.

    So that’s all I’m focused on with this topic and poll. If we didn’t land top 4, is the gap of player from 5 to 8 even worth losing sleep over when there doesn’t appear to be a consensus top 5 player?
     
    #11 vator, Mar 27, 2022
    snowconeman22 likes this.
  12. glynch

    glynch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2000
    Messages:
    17,791
    Likes Received:
    3,395
    Yeah, I surprisingly found it fun to see our young guys beat up on the scrubs from Portland. Now that we have had that fun, it is time to stop playing the vets. Besides it is more interesting to watch Nix than Gordon or Schroder.
     
    #12 glynch, Mar 27, 2022
    Hank McDowell, Dobbizzle, Zen Tabak and 2 others like this.
  13. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2008
    Messages:
    18,387
    Likes Received:
    18,417
    If you believe in yourself and you are the one picking, it absolutely matters that you get to pick sooner even if it's one spot ahead.
     
    #13 Mathloom, Mar 27, 2022
    jim1961 and vator like this.
  14. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2016
    Messages:
    30,803
    Likes Received:
    41,420
    MIAMI ROSTER SITTIN ON THE TOP OF the EAST UNTIL YESTERDAY, went to finals 2 years back
    adebayo pick no 14
    herro pick no 13
    jimmy butler pick no 30
    kyle guy 55
    dedmon undrafted
    markieff morris 13
    duncan robinson undrafted
    max struss undrafted
    lowry 24
    pj tucker pick no 35
    omer yurtseven undrafted
    gabe vincent undrafted
    caleb martin undrafted

    RULING CHAMPS ROSTER
    yanis pick no 15
    middleton pick no 39
    holiday pick no 17
    bobby portis 22
    nwora 45
    serge ibaka 24
    brook lopez 10
    wess mathews - undrafted
    connaughton 41
    thanasis ante 51
    grayson alen 21
    bembrey 21
    jevon carter 32
    george hill 26

    HONORABLE MENTION
    grizzlies destroying everybody without JA and no top 3 picks

    suns the best team in the league
    SUNS ROSTER
    biyombo pick no 7
    devin booker pick no 13
    mikal bridges 10
    cameron payne 14
    cam johnson 11
    torey craig undrafted
    jae crowder 34
    aaron holiday 23
    kaminski 9
    shamet 26
    saric 12
    justin jackson 15
    elfrid payton 10
    javale mc gee 18

    TAKE THAT FOR DATA

    IT DOESN'T MATTER WHERE YOU PICK
    ITS WHO YOU PICK AND WHAT YOU DO WITH IT...
     
    #14 hakeem94, Mar 27, 2022
    Sluball3, DeBeards, CriscoKidd and 1 other person like this.
  15. hakeem94

    hakeem94 Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2016
    Messages:
    30,803
    Likes Received:
    41,420
    Attention all TANK amusement park attendees. We hope you enjoyed your time at planet TOPPICKMANIA. At this time our rides will be closing for the season. Be sure to tell your friends this was not your best trip to planet TOPPICKMANIA, it was your fifth or sixth best.
    hahahahahahah!!!!
     
    #15 hakeem94, Mar 27, 2022
    DeBeards and clos4life like this.
  16. vator

    vator Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    6,574
    Likes Received:
    13,918
    I’m just playing devil’s advocate. I’m a man trying to make sense out of something that made no sense to me when I went to bed last night haha!

    But what if you like Duren, Murray, Griffin, Sharpe, Mathurin, etc. all equally, but for different reasons? None of them are similar players and would all add something to the current Rockets team that we don’t have.

    Looking at last draft, I’d say most of these teams are satisfied with the guy they got for the most part and I would say there wouldn’t be an overwhelming consensus of which one of these guys will be the best player by the end of their rookie contracts. To a lesser extent, I think 5-10 in this draft may be similar in regards to there doesn’t appear to be one guy head and shoulders above the rest. Yeah Orlando would be happy with Giddey, but they’re also ecstatic about Wagner. You know what I mean? The Thunder could’ve gone with Kuminga and been satisfied and Giddey would’ve blown up in Golden State.

    2021 NBA Draft 5-10
    5. Magic: Jalen Suggs
    6. Thunder: Josh Giddey
    7. Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga
    8. Magic: Franz Wagner
    9. Kings: Davion Mitchell
    10. Grizzlies: Ziaire Williams
     
    #16 vator, Mar 27, 2022
  17. my time to shine

    my time to shine Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2021
    Messages:
    715
    Likes Received:
    974
    If we don't get top 4 then I want Shaedon Sharpe who will almost surely be 5... so it does make a difference.
     
    #17 my time to shine, Mar 27, 2022
    Aruba77 and vator like this.
  18. my time to shine

    my time to shine Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2021
    Messages:
    715
    Likes Received:
    974
    We aren't Miami or Los Angeles... those teams rely on star free agent signings and guys forcing their way there via trade.
     
    #18 my time to shine, Mar 27, 2022
  19. vator

    vator Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2006
    Messages:
    6,574
    Likes Received:
    13,918
    What do you like about Sharpe over Murray, Duren, AJ Griffin, Mathurin, etc?
     
    #19 vator, Mar 27, 2022
  20. my time to shine

    my time to shine Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2021
    Messages:
    715
    Likes Received:
    974
    Duren isn't skilled and honestly seems too ghetto - not sure he'll ever figure out the NBA game at a high level.

    I wouldn't consider Duren until 11-15.

    Sharpe is my personal preference over the other guys because he was the consensus no 1 player coming out of high school. It sucks that he didn't play and won't be a top 4 pick because of it but his talent is way too much to pass up on. You're looking at a dude who has a realistic shot to be the best player in the draft at the 5th overall pick.

    With the 5th pick, gotta go big game hunting.
     
    #20 my time to shine, Mar 27, 2022
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)
Page 1 of 3

Share This Page

Toggle Width
Style
ClutchFans Original

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Rockets Content

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now