Do you agree this team will win around 50 in the reg. season, but not much in the post season?

There were already some decent offensive plays that were definitely present in the last preseason game. It's not the best measurement tool though because it was preseason and the caliber of the players aren't the same as a full NBA roster. I can see this team with 45+ wins. 50 is a bit of a stretch at this point. Can't wait to see though!!

 

The defense is going to be better than last year's - COUNT ON IT. Nene straight up is a better defender right now than Dwight and Capela emerging will bolster the rim protection. A more efficient offense translates to fewer fast break opportunities for the other team, thus by default improving our defensive efficiency.

The entire NBA world is underrating this team, and it's going to be awesome rooting for them as they surprise everyone.

 

40 wins, 8th seed

8th...
http://www.nba.com/gmsurvey/2016


CBS: Anywhere from 42-47 wins
FOX: Houston Rockets OVER 41.5
The Rockets underachieved last season with 41 wins, but a new head coach in Mike D'Antoni and some new three-point shooters on the roster should have Houston back over .500 this season.

SI: Houston Rockets

Observation: A pace-oriented coach who hates playing defense is calling the shots for one of the league’s most gifted scorers, who also hates playing defense.

Team Hypothesis: Insert Mike D’Antoni and subtract Dwight Howard, allowing James Harden to finally be his best self.

Evidence: Harden’s 2015–16 season, every D’Antoni-coached team finished top five in pace from 2004–09, Houston’s five regulars with career three-point rates of 35% or better, Steve Nash’s two MVPs and Linsanity.

Complications: Playing defense, geriatric Nene mood-swings, playing defense, beard oil and short shorts.

The Experiment: Philosophically, the D’Antoni hiring was a supreme basketball fit and the ultimate screw-it move from Daryl Morey, unless the most convincing of advanced statistics suggested eschewing convention for a total punt on one side of the ball. That might be a bit harsh, and to be fair, the Rockets carry role players that can cut it as individual defenders, but there’s no secret what the M.O. is going to be here.

That said, Houston deserves some kudos for shaking up the locker room and doubling down on D’Antoni ball with Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, and a public commitment to shooting three-pointers and letting James Harden do literally whatever he wants.

The Rockets went from 54 wins to 56 wins and a conference finals berth to an extremely moody 41 wins and the public sacrifice of J.B. Bickerstaff. Now, their direction is only totally offensive in a literal sense.

Conclusion: Proceed with caution. Harden will duel Russell Westbrook for the scoring title, the Rockets will lead the league in threes attempted and probably win 39 games. D’Antoni teams are fun, but the formula always fizzles out a little faster than we’d like.

 

NBA Scouts Preview

Houston Rockets
"I thought it was an interesting approach to the off-season to say, 'Alright, f--- it, we're going all in on offense. F--- defense.' ... I don't know how much of it was Daryl or the owner. There's been some rumors that D'Antoni wasn't really Daryl's call. But D'Antoni makes them really hard to guard. He's a really good offensive coach, even as people have sort of caught up to him. And they signed guys who can really shoot. Finally Harden's going to have some legit shooting around him. They're gonna be awesome on offense. ... I gotta think they're gonna be atrocious on defense. D'Antoni, every time he's been a head coach he hasn't really cared about defense. And as these coaches get older, they just lose the desire to fight those battles every day. It's pain in the ass, you have to stay on these guys, and bother them about it, hold guys accountable over and over and over. … Like you watch George Karl's Sacramento team last year? Still a lot of the things that made George a good coach. A creative, hard-to-guard offense, interesting lineups. All that was still there. But he just didn't have the desire to make guys play defense and yank 'em out of the game if they weren't willing to. … As coaches get older, more and more they just focus on the area of the game they're really passionate about. D'Antoni's really passionate about spacing and ball movement, they'll be awesome at that ... Allegedly they have assistants who will handle the defense, and that helps to an extent, but if the head coach doesn't care, assistants can scream and show film all they want, but you won't get as much buy-in ... I think they can win 45 to 48 wins. They should be very, very good on offense. And in the regular season, they'll win more than half their games. ... I like Clint Capela, he's gonna be good. He's a very good rebounder, he's a good shot-blocker ... Ryan Anderson shoots it, and shoots it with confidence. In a couple years, that deal may not look very good, but they'll be hard to guard with him this year ... The one thing that could happen is teams guard Anderson with a wing, and then just switch when he screens for Harden. Some coaches would struggle with that, but D'Antoni is savvy enough to counter pretty effectively. He just won't use Anderson as the screener as much, and just use him to space the floor. ... It'll also be interesting to see if teams use a mobile four on Capela, because it's not as if Capela is really going to punish smaller guys in the post. ... The advantage Houston has is that Harden can really beat a switch. He's one of the few guys in the league that has the whole offensive package. You really gotta be careful if you're switching onto him, because he's so good with the ball."
​

 

I still think they'll make inside 50 to 55.

2nd round flameout though which ismore generous than the lower-mid 50 wins.

 

56 Wins and top 12 in defense

 

Zach Lowe's tiers

The only question that matters -- and one that got a little more pressing with the news from our Calvin Watkins that Patrick Beverley may need knee surgery: Just how bad is Houston's defense going to be?

There is a lot of evidence that an elite defense is a slightly more powerful predictor of championship contention than an elite offense, and the same may be true on the downside. Only seven teams that fell into the bottom five in points allowed per possession made the playoffs over the past 20 seasons, according to data compiled by ESPN Stats & Information. Those teams ranked about third on average in offensive efficiency.

The prognosis gets better if you are merely not terrible; a full 32 teams, about 1.5 per season season, squeaked into the playoffs with bottom-10 defenses. Meanwhile, a bunch more -- 42 -- got in despite bottom-10 offenses over that same 20-year stretch.

Houston is going to score the hell out of the ball. If they stay healthy and trudge closer to 20th in overall defense, they should win enough games -- something in the high-40s -- to secure a spot. That's not easy for any team featuring Ryan Anderson, an unhidable saboteur, and it definitely won't be easy if Houston gets the comatose version of James Harden and Eric Gordon. Some of these guys have scary injury histories.

But Harden is in shape, and the Rockets have enough solid defenders -- including two centers -- to achieve some minimum level of competence. Having perhaps the second-best offense in the league will help; it's easier to set your defense and get stops after a bucket -- or even better, a free throw.
​

Spoiler

TRILOGY PARTICIPANTS
Golden State Warriors
Cleveland Cavaliers

AIN'T NEVER GONNA GIVE UP
Los Angeles Clippers

BEST OF THE REST
San Antonio Spurs
Boston Celtics
Toronto Raptors

ROCK SOLID PLAYOFF TEAMS
Indiana Pacers
Portland Trail Blazers
Houston Rockets

Oklahoma City Thunder
Utah Jazz

BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT PLAYOFF TEAMS
Detroit Pistons
Charlotte Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

PRIME CONTENDERS FOR NO. 8: WEST
Dallas Mavericks
Memphis Grizzlies
Denver Nuggets
New Orleans Pelicans
Minnesota Timberwolves

PRIME CONTENDERS FOR NO. 8: EAST
Milwaukee Bucks
Washington Wizards
Chicago Bulls

ATTRACTIVE DREK
Brooklyn Nets
Philadelphia 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns

THRASHING ABOVE THE DREK, REACHING FOR NO. 8
Orlando Magic
New York Knicks
Miami Heat
Sacramento Kings

CBS:
Ethan Skolnick: 7th seed; losing to Spurs in first round
Matt Moore: 6th seed; losing to Clippers in first round
James Herbert: 5th seed; losing to Clippers in first round
Ananth Pandian: 5th seed; losing to Jazz in first round

 

This was pretty much my first thought (well, maybe my second after 'WTF?') after hearing that MDA was hired. I think the Rockets are going to do well in the regular season, significantly better than last season, but won't make it very far in the playoffs when defenses tighten up and more physical play is allowed.
Of course, I would love to see this team go very deep in the playoffs and I'll be rooting for them to do so, but, it just seemed apparent to me that ownership's priority was to build an 'exciting' team rather than a championship team.

 

40 wins, get to second round

 

I would love to have any place in Vegas to offer a line of Rox +7 against the Jazz for the regular season wins.

 

I think anything between 40 and 50 wins is fair if the team miraculously stays healthy, possibly less if the injury prone people on the roster get hurt like they always do.

 

This team isn't a contender because they need another star player besides Harden. MDA system gives the Rockets a better offense that isn't stagnant. The Rockets have legit 3 point shooters now and the spread offense gives Harden much more room to operate. Their defense will need some time. They just need an effective defensive system that focuses more on collective defense. But a better offense will always make the defense better because it gives the team time to run back and set up completely.

The Rockets are a few pieces away from being a elite team. A lot of Rockets fans wants the Rockets to find a PG to play next to Harden. But I think thats the wrong approach because few PG in this league fits into what the Rockets need. D'Antoni making Harden a full time PG really give this team a new outlook. It is much easier to find a wing player who can share the backcourt with Harden than a PG. Having Harden at PG makes sense and it makes it easier for Morey to search for a backcourt mate for Harden. A backcourt mate with Harden would need to be able to shoot from the outside effectively, make plays with the ball in his hands, have the size and athleticism to defend both PG and SG, and move without the ball. There are more wing players who fit that criteria than PG. Eric Gordon plays well alongside Harden so far because he's a scorer with or without the ball and is an effective long range shooter. The only problem is he isn't much of a defender.

But now with Harden officially a PG for the Rockets, Daryl Morey can move forward to search for a wing who can thrive next to Harden. But this team has potential to be really good. Again, they are just a few pieces away from being the top 3-4 on the Western Conference.

 

No half court game? I mean, not like in the traditional sense of slowing the game up. We will run PNR and have cutters/slashers in motion and repeat until we get a high percentage shoot.

 

Been tearing it up with your posts youngblood. We can't challenge the best without another superstar and I agree we need an elite wing. Or at the very least, another elite something.

 

Injuries are part of the NBA, there is no way around it, we fans hope those are minor injuries and not big ones.

Beverley's is pretty big, not season ending big but still.

 

This team won 56 games and cobbled together a passable defense with a hobbled Dwight missing 41 games and Bev missing 26. If you believe, like I do, that many of last year's defensive struggles were a result of poor on-court chemistry and communication, I don't think it's that unrealistic to believe that this group could finish in the 18-23 range in defensive efficiency. Provided the offense performs to expectations, that's good enough for 50+ wins.

Still predicting 48-52 Ws. I'm prepared to be called out on that if it doesn't happen, but best believe I'll be calling out all of the doom-and-gloom pessimists if I'm right.

 

This.

Gsw
Spurs
????
Clippers,okc, rockets, memphis
That third seed is up for grabs and I think the rockets have a good chance

 

45 wins and second round.
We all know some nights the offense is going to look unstoppable. Harden in this offense is going to be ridiculous filling up the stat sheet. Ultimately there's not enough talent, defense, rebounding, etc.

 

Final predictions: W-L record, standings for every NBA team

It's time for NBA predictions!

Let's look at our latest projections for all 30 NBA teams.

These projections use ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and update the forecast we posted in August for injuries, roster moves and new rotations since then. (RPM is provided by ESPN contributor Jeremias Englelmann.)

We will also note some of the more interesting outcomes from other stats-based projection models.

Western Conference
1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 66.7 (Summer Forecast: 67-15)

Warriors blog Golden State of Mind tracked statistical projections from several models and found they pegged the team for an average of about 68 wins this season, from a low of 61 to a high of 72. By comparison, RPM is a tad more conservative, though 67 wins would still tie for the seventh-most in NBA history.

2. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 54.4 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)

Only Golden State is projected for more wins than San Antonio, but the 12-win gap between the West's top two teams is nearly as large as the difference between the Spurs and the eighth-ranked team in the conference. Gulp.

3. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 47.4 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

Because of the Jazz's depth, a projected 10-game absence for Gordon Hayward with a fractured bone in his left hand cost them less than half a game on average. Utah still projects as the favorite to win the Northwest Division.

4. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 46.9 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)

Some rotation adjustments moved the Rockets into fourth in the West despite knee surgery that's projected to keep point guard Patrick Beverley out for the first 20 games of the season. But beware that RPM sees Houston as a slightly above-average defensive unit, which doesn't square with a handful of defensive liabilities in the starting five.

5. L.A. Clippers
Projected wins: 46.8 (Summer Forecast: 52-30)

The Clippers actually gained a projected half-win based on an updated guess at their rotation, but still fell behind the Rockets to fifth in the West. RPM is lowest on L.A. of the statistical projections tracked by Golden State of Mind, which range up to 53 wins.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 45.7 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)

FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections are very high on the Thunder, forecasting OKC to finish sixth-best in the NBA with 50 wins -- the highest of any statistical projection tracked by Golden State of Mind.

7. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 44.9 (Summer Forecast: 46-36)

Statistical projections are relatively unanimous that the Blazers will finish about where they finished last season. Of the teams tracked by Golden State of Mind, Portland's four-game difference between the best (46) and worst (42) forecast was the smallest.

8. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 41.8 (Summer Forecast: 34-48)

Projecting more minutes for Jusuf Nurkic helps push Denver's optimistic RPM projection above .500. CARMELO is also on board with the Nuggets as a sleeper, projecting 40 wins, though most other projections peg Denver in the mid-30s.

9. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 39.9 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)

Improbably, CARMELO is even lower on the Grizzlies than RPM, forecasting 35 wins and just a 21 percent chance of reaching the postseason. ESPN's basketball power index (BPI) is a tad higher, giving Memphis 42 wins on average.

10. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 38.1 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)

With a new coach in Tom Thibodeau -- not accounted for by RPM and many other projection systems -- the Timberwolves have proven uniquely difficult to forecast, especially given their youthful roster full of potential. CARMELO actually projects 46 wins for Minnesota, but Andrew Johnson's projections on Nylon Calculus have the Timberwolves at just 30 wins. The 16-win gap is far and away the biggest among teams tracked by Golden State of Mind.

11. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 37.6 (Summer Forecast: 30-52)

RPM is relatively high on the Kings. Both CARMELO and BPI project Sacramento 13th in the West, ahead of only the rebuilding Phoenix Suns and L.A. Lakers.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 37.1 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)

Jrue Holiday's absence to help his wife recover from surgery to remove a brain tumor is a wild card for the Pelicans. I've projected Holiday will miss 10 games, which in conjunction with his history of injury leaves him playing just 53 total.

13. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 35.0 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)

The Mavericks fare worse by RPM than any other projection tracked by Golden State of Mind, though most of them still have Dallas below .500 this season, which would be the first time for that since 1999-2000.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 28.9 (Summer Forecast: 26-56)

The Suns are one of three teams projected to rank in the league's bottom five at both ends of the court.

15. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 24.3 (Summer Forecast: 25-57)

That group also includes the Lakers, who have the league's lowest projection by 1.6 wins.

RPM Projections
Team Offense* Defense* Wins
Golden State 111.4 99.6 66.7
San Antonio 105.2 100.0 54.4
Cleveland 108.9 103.6 54.1
Boston 105.3 102.1 49.2
Toronto 107.1 104.3 48.3
Utah 104.6 102.2 47.4
Houston 106.2 104.0 46.9
L.A. Clippers 105.1 102.9 46.8
Detroit 105.6 103.4 46.6
Oklahoma City 106.2 104.4 45.7
Portland 106.2 104.7 44.9
Denver 104.9 104.6 41.8
Charlotte 104.0 103.8 41.6
Washington 103.2 103.1 41.5
Memphis 103.6 104.1 39.9
Atlanta 101.7 102.2 39.7
Indiana 102.8 103.6 39.1
Chicago 103.4 104.3 38.8
Minnesota 104.4 105.6 38.1
Sacramento 103.1 104.5 37.6
New Orleans 102.4 104.0 37.1
Orlando 102.6 104.3 36.8
Miami 101.8 104.0 35.4
Dallas 102.3 104.7 35.0
New York 102.5 105.0 34.8
Milwaukee 102.9 105.9 33.4
Brooklyn 100.3 104.9 29.3
Phoenix 101.0 105.9 28.9
Philadelphia 99.7 105.8 25.9
L.A. Lakers 100.6 107.5 24.3
*Projected points scored/allowed per 100 possessions
​