Do any of the Houston Rockets staff/coaches/assistants read this board?

Have you actually read the whole thread from the link I provided? No I guess not. The guy made comments about 10 other PGs in the league which were quiet accurate and he is coaching bball for youngsters. Go and read for yourself BEFORE you determine if he is an LOF!

This is the one of reasons why the quality of GARM had gone way down. You can't say or even post anything positive about Lin without being labeled as LOF. PATHETIC!

 

I didn't read the whole thread, but what I did read was full of comments from other posters like "Lin is a more athletic Tony Parker with a better shot.", lots of fans basically blaming Harden for Lin not being an all star, and requests for him to be traded to other teams so he can show his "true potential", along with blaming McHale for Lin's struggles.

In the end it's just another fan site, each poster has to be judged on their own merits and both there and here have some really bad posts and some good ones. The quote you posted was just another person's opinion that happens to support your opinion. It was mostly well written, but a bit over the top in the complaints and excuses for me to really agree with.

 

It goes both ways regarding how good Lin really is from fans of other basketball teams. Both extreme ends of comments about Lin are to be ignored. Comments from fans who blame Harden or Lin belongs to Dleague fall into that category.

At least you don't tag others as LOF's from thoughtful and positive comments about Lin, even though you disagreed.

I usually avoid Lin's threads like they are black plague in GARM. Posters here can agree or disagree but to label others as xOF from a thoughtful comment will only bring down the quality of this board.

 

Pretty sure when you foul when up 3. They would try to make the 1st FT and miss the 2nd FT in hopes of a put back.

 

What if the ref calls it a shooting foul and awards three ft? Players know they are about to be fouled and throw it up and the ref calls it. You cant foul off the ball cause that would be two ft AND possession.

also, I notice you didnt respond to morpheus's post with the studies in it.....are we to believe that you are so good that your thoughts trump guys who are actually published? That kind of cred isnt just given to a guy with 7 posts.

 

Why does it matter, it's the same whiny bullshet I hear one thousand times a day on this board.

Oh Lin went through coaching changes, OMG it's so tough for him, So many different styles, no notice of being a sixth man, poor Lin. who the hell in the NBA hasn't went through a whole bunch coaching changes and team changes, Lin isn't some special snowflake.

I wish Lin fans would stop playing the victim card of how tough Lin has it cuz everyone's against him. It's really annoying and believe it or not it has nothing to do with basketball.

It's funny you are quoting reddit of all places for its "knowledgeable fans". Give me a frucken break, reddit's opinion isn't worth more than opinions you see here, or the youtube or ESPN comment section. In fact reddit is nothing but a huge circle jerk most of the time and full of casuals pretending they are knowledgeable.

I'm starting to see that a lot here actually, people bringing in reddit quotes like its God's words or something.

 

Coaches and Players probably don't read these boards, but if a newspaper or a popular blog or a radio station mentions them, then someone they know will probably tell them that they should listen or read what was said.

 

but what happens when you foul up 3. they purposely miss the 2nd to try and secure the rebound(or simply let dwight get the rebound). and then immediately foul. they are now down 2 with dwight on the line. It is very possible to miss both.

benefits for 'they' if you foul up 2 with the rox being 'you'.

A)make 1 making it a 2pt game.

B)if they purpusely miss the second 'they' have a 13.9% of securing an offensive rbd. (http://www.82games.com/comm13.htm) granted against dwight it is likely to be a lower %(variable).

C)dwight secures the rbd and you immediately foul him. odds are he will atleast miss one considering he is shooting .471(http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html). he has a 47% chance of missing the first ft attempt. and a 47% chance of missing the second. giving 'they' an advantage of catching up

 

For someone with a good background in analytics and game theory, there is a surprising lack of actual data to back up your arguments. It would be fascinating to see your data which is allegedly 3 years ahead of NBA teams.

That's about the least analytic counter argument you can make. I can't prove that fouling is bad, any more than you have proven that not fouling is bad. As I noted in the studies above, the % of games that the team up 3 lost was almost the same either way, insignificantly slightly favoring not fouling, with a much greater sample size of not fouling than intentionally fouling in that situation. I'm personally fine with the strategy of fouling when up 3 and less than 10-12 seconds on the clock, but you haven't provided anything to prove that it is without debate superior.

That's hardly the only possibility though. A common strategy if there is less than 12 seconds on the clock is to purposely miss the 2nd free throw and try to get the rebound. Ken Pomeroy's research showed that the offensive rebounder got the ball 39 out of 96 cases where the 2nd was intentionally missed in college games from 09-10 through last season. Pomeroy found that offensive rebounding is significantly higher than normal because it is an intentional miss, and the team intentionally missing is sending everyone to the rebound, no one staying back at half court to defend outlet passes.


Both strategies have worked and failed at almost equal % in the studies provided. If you have a more extensive study to look at I would love to read it.

Fouling when there is more than 12 seconds on the clock gives an increasing chance of back firing depending on how much time is left on the clock. You are letting them score on uncontested free throws while stopping the clock. Extending the game when your ahead is almost always a bad idea. It's a strategy typically employed by the team behind. So keeping in mind that both strategies are very low % for the team behind by 3, to say there is no debate, requires significantly more data than you have provided.

You can't assume both sides are going to make all their free throws. You can't assume that after you foul them and they make both, that you are going to successfully inbound the ball, and if you do, that it will be to a good free throw shooter, and if it is, that they will make both. You can't assume that when you try to intentionally foul them, they won't get into the act of shooting first.

The research I listed did prove that the % of teams that fouled when up 3 and then lost the game wasn't significantly different from the number who didn't foul and lost the game, and in fact there was a slightly higher % of intentional foul strategies losing. So far you haven't provided any data to counter their findings. So it seems that there is lots of room for debate. Certainly with an even larger data pool those stats may change. For something that "isn't debatable", you haven't given a particularly strong debate though.

 

You make a perfect example as to why some posters here are biased.

 

As noted in the study by Pomeroy, the rebound % on free throws in that SPECIFIC situation was much higher in college games for the offensive rebounders, due to not keeping a player at half court for defensive purposes, knowing that the ball is going to be intentionally missed, and sometimes successfully intentionally missing in a specific direction.
Pomeroy said regarding rebounds on missed free throws in college games:
Normally, free throw misses result in about a 15-20% offensive rebounding rate. But in 96 cases of a reboundable free throw in the possessions studied, trailing teams got 39 of them for a rebounding percentage of 40.6. (Each of the 39 cases is listed in Appendix C.)

It would be interesting to see if there are any stats specific to that situation available for the NBA.

 

He is not wrong.

But, that whole discussion is off topic in this thread. Go take it to whichever other Lin thread you want, they all look alike at this point.

 

yes i seen that indeed, albeit after i made my post. i agree there would be a higher % for rebounding if intentiona. also lowering because of dwight. it would be fascinating to find a nba study where they calculated intentional misses and the rbd %.

very nice find btw.

 

If none of the Rockets staff read this board, then they need to because 95% of the posters here think they know exactly how to manage the team.

 

yes im sure they read clutchfans and know how racist they are towards lin

 

You want us to read 200 posts on reddit, you say? Oh, and

you say? And what was the point of your quote from reddit, then? An advertisement to go to reddit?

I think you're on the wrong board.

 

I read that study. It's an older study, that the studies I posted specifically address and refute, so I don't know why you would use it as a counter arguement.