Looking at the schedules, I don't see the Clippers falling to #6. I think they have a good shot to run the table and challenge for the #3 or #4 seed. The team I could see falling is the Grizz who have been shaky lately. Also remember that the Blazers hold the tie break automatically over any team that doesn't win their division. Rockets - @Spurs, Spurs, Pelicans, @Hornets, Jazz Grizz - Pelicans, @Jazz, @Clippers, @Warriors, Pacers Blazers - @Nyets, Wolves, @Warriors, @Thieves, @Mavs Clippers - @Lakers, Lakers, Grizz, Nuggets, @Suns Spurs - @Thieves, Rockets, @Rockets, Suns, @Pelicans My crackpot guess of the day is 1) Warriors 2) Rockets 3) Clippers 4) Blazers 5) Spurs 6) Grizz 7) Mavs 8) Thieves\Pelicans
No chance Pops rests players against us. They will be coming at full force. I will welcome it gladly if they do decide to rest. But that second seed is money to any of the other 6 playoff teams. Everyone wants to play the Mavs.
I would say no. I don't want the head to heads to hurt us if we lose. Too bad the Spurs are wiping the floor with the Warriors. What we don't want is the Spurs to be the Spurs this time of the season, looks like they are. If the Rockets end up playing the Spurs in the playoffs, they will definitely have to earn it to advance.
I guess we should be rooting for GS.?. but can't help enjoy GS getting WHOOPED so far. Reminds me how SAS doesn't start playing till this time of year home court, or not they will be scary in the playoffs.
The Spurs want the second seed and HCA. They are gunning for both. OTOH, if we cant beat them once in those two games, then I am not too optimistic about our playoff success.
If they lose to OKC, the Rockets can lose both games to 'em and still be ahead (just gotta win rest of the games, NOLA, Hornets and Utah). But if the Rockets do beat 'em once, their hope for the 2nd seeds is over.
We need split against the Spurs and win out against Pels, Hornets, and Jazz. If we can do that we win the division and get the 2 seed.
Tony Allen out at least another week. Looks like the spurs are our primary competition for the division title
The Grizzlies could lose 3 or 4 more games given the way they're playing and the difficulty of their schedule. Man, I hope OKC beats the Spurs tomorrow. That would take so much pressure off those 2 games with San Antonio this week.
The Tie Break Situation The race for the Southwest could very well come down to a tie breaker between the Rockets and either the Grizz or Spurs. We split the season series 2-2 with Memphis, and we currently sit at 1-1 with the Spurs with a pair of home and home games coming up Wednesday and Friday. If either team wins both games, they will claim the tie break over the other team. If the Rockets and Spurs split, they’d also sit at 2-2 with San Antionio. Let’s take a look at our chances to claim the tie break from each of these teams. As a reminder, here are the tie break criteria for two teams. 1) Head to Head 2) Divisional Record 3) Conference Record 4) Record against Playoff Opponents 5) Record against Playoff Opponents in Eastern Conference 6) Net points all games Division record wise, the three teams currently sit as follows: Rockets 7-6 @Spurs, Spurs, @Pelicans Grizz 8-7 Pelicans Spurs 6-7 Rockets, @Rockets, @Pelicans What’s at Stake with Memphis? The Grizz have a leg up on claiming the divisional tie break from the Rockets since they own a better conference record (33-15 vs 31-17). If the Rockets and Grizz wind up tied in the head to head and divisional tie break, the third criteria is conference record which would go to Memphis. Magic Number for Rockets to clinch divisional break (3) Magic Number to clinch divisional tie break over Rockets (2) The Memphis-Pelicans game on Wednesday is huge for this tie break. If the Grizz win, the Rockets would have to win all three remaining divisional games left on their schedule to win the tie break. If the Grizz lose, the Rockets can afford to drop a divisional game and still manage to claim the superior divisional record and take the tie break over Memphis. Those Pesky Spurs I’m having flashbacks to 2008-2009 when it comes to the Spurs. It’s time to dive into some very wonky tie break theory that could possibly go to the sixth tie break procedure. If the Rockets and Spurs split their two games against one another, the Rockets’ division record would sit at 8-7 and the Spurs at 7-8. Either a Spurs loss or Rockets victory in New Orleans would clinch the superior divisional record for the Rocket and secure the tie break over the Spurs. If the Spurs win and the Rockets lose, they’d wind up with identical 8-8 divisional records. The third tie break is Conference Record where the Rockets have a two game lead over the Spurs in the loss column (31-17 vs 28-19). If we’re using this tie break, that means the Spurs closed the two game gap in overall records as well as the conference record so we go to the fourth tie break. Record against Playoff Opponents The devil is in the details of the fourth tie break procedure. Record against Playoff Opponents sounds like you just compile each team’s record against the other 7 Playoff teams, but this can also include non Playoff teams if they wind up tied with the eighth seed. Phoenix technically has a shot to tie the Thieves or Pelicans, but I’m assuming they’re out. There are three possibilities for the bottom of the Western Conference Playoff bracket: 1) Thieves have a better record than the Pelicans 2) Pelicans have a better record than the Thieves 3) Thieves and Pelicans wind up tied (Pelicans win the tie break and get the #8 seed but both teams get included in this tie break) This is still a fluid situation since Spurs face both the Thieves and Pelicans one more time and the Rockets travel to the Big Easy on Sunday. The Spurs and Rockets also don’t have the same number of games played, so this tie break uses percentages instead of games back. I’ve marked the Spurs and Rockets at 2-2 against one another since that’s the only way we get to this tie break procedure. Thieves have a better record than the Pelicans Rockets 13-13 vs Warriors 0-4 None vs Grizz 2-2 None vs Blazers 1-2 None vs Clippers 2-2 None vs Spurs 2-2 None vs Mavs 3-1 None vs Thunder 3-0 None Spurs 11-12 vs Warriors 2-1 None vs Rockets 1-1 None vs Grizz 2-2 None vs Blazers 1-3 None vs Clippers 2-2 None vs Mavs 2-2 None vs Thunder 1-1 1A If the Spurs lose in OKC on Tuesday, the Rockets would claim the tie break under this scenario. If the Spurs win, we would go to the freaking fifth tie break. For the record, I told you this would be wonky. Pelicans have a better record than the Thieves Rockets 12-15 vs Warriors 0-4 None vs Grizz 2-2 None vs Blazers 1-2 None vs Clippers 2-2 None vs Spurs 2-2 None vs Mavs 3-1 None vs. Pelicans 2-2 1A Spurs 11-13 vs Warriors 2-1 None vs Rockets 1-1 None vs Grizz 2-2 None vs Blazers 1-3 None vs Clippers 2-2 None vs Mavs 2-2 None vs. Pelicans 1-2 1A If we arrive at this scenario, the Spurs would hold the current advantage via a 45.83% vs 42.31% winning percentage over the Rockets with each team going to New Orelans to face the Pelicans one more time. If the Spurs win their game or the Rockets lose their game, the Spurs win the tie break. If the Rockets win their game, and the Spurs lose the final game of the season against the Pelicans, the Rockets would win this tie break criteria via a 44.44% vs 44.00% winning percentage. Thieves and Pelicans wind up tied Rockets 14-15 vs Warriors 0-4 None vs Grizz 2-2 None vs Blazers 1-2 None vs Clippers 2-2 None vs Spurs 2-2 None vs Mavs 3-1 None vs. Thunder 3-0 None vs. Pelicans 1-2 1A Spurs 12-14 vs Warriors 2-1 None vs Rockets 1-1 None vs Grizz 2-2 None vs Blazers 1-3 None vs Clippers 2-2 None vs Mavs 2-2 None vs. Thunder 1-1 1A vs. Pelicans 1-2 1A The Rockets hold the current advantage on this tie break via a 48.28% vs 46.15% winning percentage. If the Rockets win their game in New Orleans, they’d finish a tidy 50%. The Spurs would lose this tie break if they dropped either game against the Thieves or Pelicans, but this would go to the fifth tie break if they win both. If the Rockets lose to the Pelicans, they would still claim this tie break if the Spurs drop at least one game in either OKC or the Big Easy. If the Spurs win both, they’d claim the tie break. Record against Playoff Opponents in Eastern Conference This is where the Rockets’ tie break hopes die against the Spurs. There’s a 5 team scrum for the last two spots in the Eastern Conference Playoffs and like the previous tie break, you have to include any teams that have the same record as the #8 seed. But just like real life, this really doesn’t matter. Looking at the top six Playoff locks (I’m including the Bucks in that list even though they haven’t clinched a spot): Rockets 7-5 vs Hawks 0-2 None vs Cavs 2-0 None vs Bulls 1-1 None vs Raptors 1-1 None vs Wizards 1-1 None vs Bucks 2-0 None Spurs 8-4 vs Hawks 2-0 None vs Cavs 1-1 None vs Bulls 1-1 None vs Raptors 1-1 None vs Wizards 1-1 None vs Bucks 2-0 None The Spurs hold a 1 game edge here with their sweep of Atlanta proving especially helpful. The sixth tie break is point differential where the Spurs hold a decisive 6.0 vs 3.3 advantage, so the Rockets would have to make up 2 games with the final teams. Rockets 9-0 vs Nyets 2-0 None vs Celtics 2-0 None vs Pacers 2-0 None vs Heat 2-0 None vs Hornets 1-0 1A Spurs 9-1 vs Nyets 1-1 None vs Celtics 2-0 None vs Pacers 2-0 None vs Heat 2-0 None vs Hornets 2-0 None Unfortunately despite Houston’s perfect record here, the Spurs have only lost a single game against these five teams so the best the Rockets can do is tie. Thus San Antonio would win the tie break if it comes to this point.
It will be interesting to see how Pop plays the next game against OKC, will he rest Duncan to be ready for the the Rockets the next night but with Tiago being out for next 3 games he will need to play Duncan against OKC. These next two games against the Spurs will be like a mini playoff test with each team getting a game on their court. It will be like the Spurs having HC since they will have to hold serve on Wednesday. Rockets need to be focused early on in both games against the Spurs. Look at how the Spurs game out against the Warriors, can't have that happen on Wednesday and Friday against the Rockets.
Splitter was out last night against the Warriors. Didn't seem to make a difference. My hope is the Spurs being on a B2B against us Wednesday will give us an edge. Kawhi is only 23, but the rest of their core is old.
I think they would be 2 and we would be 3. The 3 division winners are guaranteed a top 4 spot in the playoffs.
