Discussion of Potential Future Player Impacts on Team

Warning: This is a long read.

Introduction:

With all the talk about who we could get in a potential trade scenario regarding Tracy McGrady, and in some cases without him, I wanted to see for myself how all of these players compare on paper. Originally, I wanted to do an analysis on how the new players might work with our current players plus Yao. But I don’t have the time or the patience to do that right now.

So instead, I am providing a number of various interesting stats about the players and about the most effective lineups on their respective teams. No stat is perfect, but I tried to provide a number of different kinds of stats and wrapped them all up into one place for easy reference.

This post is not meant to analyze these players, though the thread is. I am only providing the stats necessary to begin fruitful discussions about which players would best serve the team if we so happened to acquire them before the trade deadline.

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Top 3 Five-Man Units per Team:

The ratings listed below are net (on court and off court) ratings for overall team performance, offense, defense, and offensive and defensive rebounding. The Overall Rating listed below is a combination of those ratings.

Plus/Minus stats are not perfect and do not take into account many things. In this case, these values do not take into account the opponents faced while these 5-Man units were on the court together.

Therefore, it’s easy to see that a 5-man starting squad may have a lower rating than a 5-man second unit, but could still be better than the second unit because it goes up against the best 5-man unit of the opposing teams more often than not.

However, I feel that these stats do tell a portion of the story and are therefore worth mentioning.

I am including our current Rockets team, last season’s Rockets team, and the most recent big players in the trade discussion regarding our team, including TOR, WAS, PHI, PHO and SAC.

I have also highlighted the players on these three 5-Man squads that are key members involved in our trade talks. The more often you see a player in the top three units, the more important that player likely is to the success of his current team.

These stats are as of 28 January 2010.

The best Five-man units for HOU this season 09-10 that have played at least 24 minutes together are as follows:

Code:

[B]5-Man Unit					Overall Rating[/B]
Lowry, Brooks, Battier, Landry, Andersen	22.50
Lowry, Brooks, Budinger, Landry, Andersen	21.43
Lowry, Ariza, Battier, Landry, Andersen		16.58

The best Five-man units for HOU last season 08-09 that played at least 40 minutes together are as follows:

Code:

[B]5-Man Unit					Overall Rating[/B]
Lowry, Wafer, Artest, Landry, Yao		48.68
Brooks, McGrady, Battier, Scola, Yao		34.48
Alston, McGrady, Artest, Landry, Yao		30.59

The best rated Five-man units for PHI this season 09-10 that have played at least 24 minutes together are as follows:

Code:

[B]5-Man Unit					Overall Rating[/B]
Williams, Iverson, [B]Iguodala[/B], [B]Brand[/B], Young	37.15
Williams, [B]Iguodala[/B], Green, Young, [B]Dalembert[/B]	24.21
Williams, [B]Iguodala[/B], Carney, [B]Brand[/B], Young	23.33

The best Five-man units for WAS this season 09-10 that have played at least 24 minutes together are as follows:

Code:

[B]5-Man Unit					Overall Rating[/B]
Boykins, Arenas, [B]Butler[/B], Blatche, [B]Haywood[/B]	55.01
Foye, Stevenson, [B]Butler[/B], Blatche, Oberto	21.60
Young, Arenas, [B]Butler[/B], Jamison, Blatche		20.54

The best Five-man units for SAC this season 09-10 that have played at least 24 minutes together are as follows:

Code:

[B]5-Man Unit					Overall Rating[/B]
Casspi, Hawes, Nocioni, Thompson, Udrih		23.50
Brockman, Casspi, Evans, Thompson, Udrih	0.83
Evans, Hawes, [B]Martin[/B], Nocioni, Thompson		0.00

The best Five-man units for TOR this season 09-10 that have played at least 24 minutes together are as follows:

Code:

[B]5-Man Unit					Overall Rating[/B]
Jack, Johnson, Bargnani, Belinelli, Weems	29.65
Bargnani, Belinelli, [B]Bosh[/B], Jack, Turkoglu	21.79
Bargnani, [B]Bosh[/B], Jack, Turkoglu, Wright		13.16

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+/- Based Player Ratings:

The +/- Off and Def Ratings tell only half the story: how well the team plays when this player is on the floor. However, the Player Net Rating shows the difference between how well the team plays with this player on the floor versus how well it plays with him off of it.

The important thing to take from this is that if this value is positive for a player, then the team has a more favorable point differential by this amount with this player on the court. And if this value is negative, then the team has a less favorable point differential with him on the court.

Once again, +/- stats do not necessarily take into account the level of competition faced by the individual players.

The Team Net Rating is listed next to the Player Net Rating to give a frame of reference for the quality of the team while accumulating the Player Net Rating. So the column for Net Rtgs should read (Player Net Ratings / Team Net Ratings).

Individual Ratings of current Rockets rotation players and key acquisitions rumored to join the Rockets based on current speculation and media editorials are listed below:

Code:

[B]Player		Net Rtgs	Off Rtg	Def Rtg	OReb Net Rtg	DReb Net Rtg[/B]
Lowry		7.81 / -0.23	108.45	104.97	3.32%		-0.54%
Brooks		-4.96 / -0.23	106.04	107.62	-6.31%		0.95%
Battier		-4.56 / -0.23	106.78	108.51	1.64%		1.69%
Budinger	7.29 / -0.23	111.114	106.38	2.09%		-2.78%
Ariza		-7.70 / -0.23	104.88	106.88	-2.42%		-0.31%
Landry		1.50 / -0.23	108.36	107.92	2.82%		-0.96%
Andersen	7.60 / -0.23	110.11	104.95	2.85%		-2.89%
Scola		-6.54 / -0.23	105.25	107.90	-3.18%		2.70%
Hayes		0.10 / -0.23	106.4	106.57	-3.25%		1.80%
*Yao		13.04 / 4.01	110.05	101.42	1.37%		-0.08%
Iguodala	-3.35 / -3.50	104.39	108.46	-3.00%		2.71%
Dalembert	1.74 / -3.50	103.65	106.34	0.22%		5.67%
Brand		1.16 / -3.50	106.04	109.04	2.66%		0.17%
Martin		-10.67 / -3.94	101.41	113.87	1.93%		-4.73%
Butler		6.25 / -4.90	106.22	109.74	-0.41%		6.24%
Haywood		11.05 / -4.90	107.11	108.41	5.39%		6.61%
Stoudemire	-3.12 / 2.30	113.95	112.54	-5.42%		2.74%
Bosh		3.10 / -1.25	112.55	113.01	-4.36%		4.26%

* - Yao’s stats are taken from the previous year, 08-09.

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Offensive Player Stats Per 40 Minutes:

I decided to provide the shooting efficiencies of all players involved, as well as the eFG%, points scored per 40 minutes and the players’ PER values. I added the PER value to this table because PER is known to be heavily weighted in favor of offensive players.

Code:

[B]Player		FG%	3P%	FT%	eFG%	PTS	PER[/B]
Lowry		39.9	32.1	79.8	44.5	13.8	17.76
Brooks		42.5	38.6	82.1	50.1	21.0	16.19
Battier		41.0	36.4	77.3	52.1	10.1	10.80
Budinger	41.9	35.5	81.0	50.0	18.0	12.60
Ariza		37.8	29.8	65.8	43.7	16.2	11.94
Landry		55.2	0.0	85.2	55.2	24.0	21.70
Andersen	42.5	28.8	72.7	46.0	16.3	11.04
Scola		52.5	33.3	73.0	52.6	19.7	17.48
Hayes		44.7	0.0	52.5	44.7	8.5	13.01
*Yao		54.8	100.0	86.6	54.9	23.4	22.34
Iguodala	42.4	32.4	77.4	46.9	17.6	18.59
Dalembert	51.9	0.0	82.3	51.9	11.4	15.95
Brand		49.1	0.0	76.6	49.1	18.3	17.24
Martin		39.1	38.7	83.0	45.8	23.2	18.97
Butler		41.6	28.2	86.2	43.5	16.9	12.91
Haywood		54.8	0.0	63.0	54.8	11.7	16.04
Stoudemire	55.5	0.0	75.8	55.5	23.9	19.65
Bosh		52.3	42.9	79.2	52.7	26.8	26.44

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Defensive Player Stats Per 40 Minutes:

For this table, I decided to provide primary defensive based stats, including total rebounds, steals, blocks and charges taken. I included the Defensive Plays stat, which is a sum of steals, blocks and charges, here for an easy reference for defensive value of each player. One stat that I wasn’t able to include here would be a player’s ability to alter shots. I don’t think such a stat exists, but I could see the value in it if it did exist. All of these stats are per 40 minutes.

Code:

[B]Player		TRB	STL	BLK	CHG	Def Plays[/B]
Lowry		6.6	1.56	0.29	1.34	3.19
Brooks		2.7	0.94	0.20	0.31	1.46
Battier		4.8	0.98	1.18	0.49	2.65
Budinger	5.8	0.96	0.30	0.30	1.56
Ariza		5.8	1.83	0.44	0.12	2.39
Landry		8.0	0.78	1.29	0.2	2.28
Andersen	8.7	0.57	0.44	0.31	1.32
Scola		11.5	0.87	0.42	0.69	1.97
Hayes		11.1	1.79	0.87	0.91	3.58
*Yao		11.8	0.46	2.32	0.17	2.96
Iguodala	6.9	1.91	0.61	0.34	2.86
Dalembert	14.7	0.89	3.41	0.11	4.40
Brand		8.5	1.45	1.59	0.07	3.11
Martin		4.9	1.47	0.20	0.59	2.25
Butler		6.8	1.43	0.32	0.00	1.76
Haywood		12.7	0.48	2.54	0.34	3.36
Stoudemire	9.8	0.88	1.10	0.30	2.28
Bosh		12.5	0.70	1.14	0.22	2.06

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Missing Stats:

I did not include current game averages. I tried to make sure that the stats presented here for each player are as comparable and fair as possible. Using a Per 40 Minute standard seems to do just that.

I did not include personal fouls, which might limit the amount of playing time a player can have in a game. At least until this year, Chuck Hayes had a terrible time staying in the game due to foul trouble. I feel that this would have too minor an impact on comparisons of these players to spend the effort recording.

I have not disclosed any salary information for these players. There has been much talk about not wanting a player because of his salary restrictions. However, I hope that this discussion focuses on the player’s impact on the court only. I assume that if any of these players do join the team that DM has Les’ blessing in accepting their contract situations. And as such, their salaries will have zero impact on their performances on the court. As fans, I feel that we shouldn’t be so caught up in how much money these players make. Let the GM and Owner worry about these things.

And finally, I did not include shot charts, floor position shooting percentages, or any athletic or mobility based stats. I also do not have offensive and defensive sets used by all of the teams mentioned above. These would all be necessary in any true analysis of the impact these players may have within the current Rockets system.

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Conclusion:

I am hoping that this thread will begin a factually based discussion regarding the impact that the key players of potential trades will have within our current Rockets system on the court. Please do not discuss salary or contract details here. There are plenty of other threads for this type of discussion. The only value a player has as an asset in this discussion should be his on-court performance and overall projected effect on our current Rockets on-court system.

How will incoming players work with our existing players? How will they work with Yao? Are they a fit for our offense? Do they upgrade our defense or harm it? Does their lack of offense get negated by their defensive impact or vice-versa? How do they fit into the regular rotation? Are you surprised by any of their stats here versus your perceived value of them before now? Which of these mentioned players would have the greatest impact on the court, whether good or bad, on our current Rockets team?

Setting up tables of data takes up quite a bit of time. So therefore, if you wish to encourage this type of discussion on our forums, please click on my Feedback button and let me know.

Let the discussion begin. :grin:

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References:

http://basketballvalue.com/index.php
http://hoopdata.com/default.aspx

 

Note: For some reason I can't preview this post before submitting it to the forums. If there are any errors that I would have caught during the preview, I apologize beforehand. I'm trying to edit it enough prior to submitting it to reduce these problems. *shrugs*

Thanks guys. I appreciate the feedback.

Well, I looked for some sites that had easy access to some of the data that I am missing from this thread that would make analyzing a player's impact on our team easier. But I failed to find anything. I still may add more data later, but for today I figured I'll just start comparing players one on one based on the stats from the first post in this thread and see what kind of discussion happens along the way.

Again, this discussion does not and is not meant to include anything regarding salary. We are only discussing a player's impact on the court in a Rockets uniform.

Let's start with Kevin Martin vs Andre Iguodala

Current Team Importance:

Iguodala is in all 3 of the top Five-Man units that have played at least 24 minutes together this season for his team, all of them with a rating of higher than 23. Martin appears in 1 of his team's top 3 units, and the unit he is included with has a rating of 0.0.

Iguodala has been healthy all season, and so it makes sense that he'll show up in a standard that requires a certain amount of time in a rotation. And with Martin only appearing in 12 games this season (which isn't an isolated incident, by the way), it makes sense that he'll only appear in one of his team's top performing units. However, the one unit he appears in has a rating of 0.0. Which essentially means that with him in the lineup, his team neither outplays or gets outplayed. And that's the best unit he shows up in this season; nothing to write home about.

Edge: Andre Iguodala


Plus/Minus Player Ratings:

Both players' teams have a +/- of -3.5 to -4. So both teams are comparable as far as performance. Andre has a +/- of -3.35 while Martin has a net +/- of -10.67. This means that both teams play better without these players on the floor. However, Martin makes his team significantly weaker when he is playing than does Iguodala. These negative values can be contributed to these players starting, but relatively speaking, Martin loses out here.

Oddly enough Martin is a stronger offensive rebounder than is Iguodala. But when stacked up with his horrible defensive rebounding, Iguodala gets the nod in this area as well.

Edge: Andre Iguodala


Offensive Ratings:

Now this is where I would expect Kevin Martin to really shine. The big knock on him has been his defense but his offense has always been the argument that keeps him in discussions of interest.

However, reviewing his key offensive numbers from this season shows that his FG% is 3.3 percentage points lower than is Iguodala's, though his 3P% is 6.3% higher. Their eFG% are very similar with Iguodala having the slight edge here by 1.1%. And their PER values are also very similar with Martin getting the slight edge by 0.38.

Oddly enough, Martin doesn't shine here as expected, having an offensive value about on par with Iguodala this season. The biggest difference in their offensive performances would have to be their playing styles. Martin will probably spread the floor a bit more with his outside shooting, but what Iguodala lacks in outside shooting he makes up for in effective field goal percentage.

Edge: Even


Defensive Ratings:

Iguodala's numbers are higher in rebounds (by 2.0), steals (by 0.44), and blocks (by 0.41). But Martin has the edge in our own team's method of playing defense, taking charges by 0.25. Iguodala gets the nod here having a better rebounding average and a higher defensive plays value.

Edge: Andre Iguodala


Conclusion:

As a better defensive player, a better rebounder and having more value to his team than his counterpart, Andre Iguodala is the clear cut winner between these two players as far as performance on the court this season. He has a history of staying healthy and as such he is able to stay on the floor building team chemistry and becoming a big part of his own team's success. With Martin's only area of expected strength neutralized this season, Iguodala comes out as the winner hands down.

Total Edge: Andre Iguodala

 

Top 3 Five-Man units for HOU 07-08 season:

Code:

5-Man Unit					Overall Rating
Alston, Battier, McGrady, Landry, Yao		27.32
Alston, Battier, McGrady, B.Wells, Yao		22.69
Alston, Battier, Hayes, Head, Yao		10.64

I find it interesting that Alston was a bigger part of this team's success than he was given credit for by many posters on this board. Battier and Yao were likely the biggest reasons our defense was top notch that season. McGrady finds himself in 2 of those top 3 lineups.

Unfortunately, I don't have the stats for seasons before this.

 

Now let's take a look at Caron Butler vs Andre Iguodala.

Current Team Importance:

Both Butler and Iguodala appear in all three of the top Five-Man rotations of their respective teams. Of those 6 units, Washington has the highest rating, while Philidelphia has a higher 3rd best team. I don't think there is much distinction between the importance of each player respective to the other using this gauge.

Edge: Even


Plus/Minus Player Ratings:

Now we start to get to the meat and potatoes of the comparisons. Washington has a lower +/- sitting at -4.9, with Philidelphia slightly less bad at -3.50. I'd say both teams are similarly playing poorly right now. Andre's net player rating is -3.35 while Butler's is 6.25. This means that Caron Butler has a much more positive impact on his team while he's on the floor than does Andre Iguodala for his team. Both are starters and both are playing in the east, so they are likely facing similar opponents half way through the season. Caron's importance to his team is clear in this stat.

Caron is also the better rebounder in his team's system. He specializes in defensive rebounds, picking up a 6.24% rating here, second only to Haywood in all players listed above in that category. Iguodala isn't a hinderance on rebounds, but the comaprison of Offensive boards for both players don't do much to change the winner in this case.

Edge: Caron Butler


Offensive Ratings:

Both players have similar FG%, with Iguodala barely beating out Butler here. And though AI is a passable 3 point shooter, averaging almost 33% from behind the arc, Caron is more of a nuisance there, shooting a horrid 28.2% from the 3. Now taking a look at eFG%, Iguodala comes out on top by 3.4% better. A look at PER shows us what we expect to see based on earlier shooting efficiencies, that Iguodala is the star in this category, finishing with over 5.5 points higher in this value than Butler.

Edge: Andre Iguodala


Defensive Ratings:

Both players average within 0.1 rebounds of the other per 40 minutes. However, AI gets about 0.5 more steals and 0.3 more blocks. Butler has yet to draw a charge this season, with Iguodala gaining the advantage here as well. This means that AI is giving his team 1.1 more defensive plays than is Caron.

Edge: Andre Iguodala


Conclusion:

It is difficult to determine which player is more important to his team based on best squads, though Caron Butler seems to be a better fit with Washington than Iguodala is with Philidelphia. Caron Butler seems to be a product of his own team's system. I would wager that Butler would play much more poorly on a team other than Washington and that Iguodala probably has more upside in a system different from Philidelphia's. Based on these observations, Iguodala would likely be the better fit outside of his own team than would Butler.

Total Edge: Andre Iguodala

 

I've finished up our wing player comparisons with Andre Iguodala coming out on top. This time I'll focus my attention on the centers of discussion, Dalembert and Haywood.

Current Team Importance:

Each player shows up in one of the top 5-man units for his team. Because Haywood shows up in a 5-man unit with an overall rating of 55.01 with Dalembert in a unit with a rating of 24.21, I'll have to give the slight edge to Haywood.

Edge: Brendan Haywood


Plus/Minus Player Ratings:

The teams of both players are mostly just as bad as the other, with WAS having a slightly lower +/- value. That being said, Dalembert has a 1.74 net player rating, while Haywood has an 11.05 rating, showing that Haywood has a far more critical role in his team's success than does Dalembert.

They both have very good defensive rebounding net ratings at 6.61 (BH) and 5.67 (SD), but Haywood's true value shows through with a monsterous 5.39% Offensive rebounding net rating, versus Dalembert's rather lazy 0.22% rating.

Edge: Brendan Haywood


Offensive Ratings:

Both players shoot well from the field, 54.8% for Haywood and 51.9% for Dalembert. It's their FT% that sets them apart here. Dalembert shoots a surprising 82.3% from the free throw line, while Brendan shoots a paultry 63.0%. With their PER values only 0.09 points from each other, the race is close here. Dalembert's ability to knock down a free throw in the closing minutes probably puts him over Haywood on the offensive end.

Edge: Samuel Dalembert


Defensive Ratings:

Dalembert averages 2 rebounds more per 40 minutes than does Haywood (14.7 vs 12.7 respectively), but this may be because of his team's pace. He also has slightly quicker hands, giving him nearly twice the steals of his counterpart (0.89 vs 0.48). But it's Dalembert's natural shot blocking that really sets him apart here, getting 3.41 blocks per 40 minutes versus Haywood's 2.54. Haywood has the quicker feet, taking more charges, but that is likely because Dalembert attempts for the block more often than not.

Edge: Samuel Dalembert


Conclusion:

This could very well be another example of a player not fitting within his team's system as well as the other. Haywood is an exceptional piece of Washington's success (if 14-30 can be called success), but Dalembert's on-court statistics reveal that he is the superior defensive player. And because he's a noticeably superior free throw shooter with Haywood harming his team at the line, Samuel Dalembert has to be the choice you take between the two players.

Total Edge: Samuel Dalembert

 

With my earlier analyses I've concluded the following as far as player performance on the court this season:

Iguodala > Butler and K.Martin

And

Dalembert > Haywood

In my final non-Rockets player comparison in this thread, I'll focus my attention on the Power Forwards that have been rumored to be key pieces in a trade with Houston before the deadline or during the offseason: Chris Bosh vs Amare Stoudemire.

Plus/Minus Player Ratings:

The Suns' +/- so far this season is 2.3, while TOR's is -1.25. With that in mind, Amare has a negative net player rating (-3.12) in a system that he seems to be designed for, while Bosh has an overall positive net player rating (3.10). With both players playing the same position in the starting lineups, Bosh clearly shows that his team needs him far more than Amare's team needs him, especially considering each team's records, PHO at 27-21 in the West and TOR at 25-22 in the East.

Edge: Chris Bosh


Offensive Ratings:

Both players average above .500 in FG%, with Stoudemire winning out by 3.2% at 55.5%. But keep in mind that Bosh is producing that high of a FG% while taking 1 3PT every three games, hitting 42.9% of them. I don't have a shot chart to show Bosh's range, but by these numbers I would guess that he has a ton more range than does Amare, while keeping very competitive in eFG% (55.5% for Stoudemire to 52.7 for Bosh). It's the PER values that make Bosh a superstar in this league. Stoudemire comes in with an impressive 19.65. But Bosh blows him away with a 26.44 PER, enough to make him 7th in the league.

Edge: Chris Bosh


Defensive Ratings:

With Stoudemire's 9.8 rebounds per 40 minutes and Bosh's 12.5, Chris Bosh comes out as the more aggressive glass cleaner. And with steals, blocks and charges all about the same, Amare's 2.28 defensive plays per 40 minutes versus Bosh's 2.06 doesn't do much to help him take this category from Bosh.

Edge: Chris Bosh


Conclusion:

The results are in and there is no need for further debate. Chris Bosh is the man at the PF position. Amare may be an outstanding talent, but Bosh is, hands down, the kind of guy any team would take in this decision. With his amazing offensive talents and range, and with his superior rebounding, it's easy to see why Bosh is much more critical to his team's success than is Amare to his.

Total Edge: Chris Bosh