I mean, in a way he's polarizing but the 2 sides are those who think he can do no wrong and those who think he's a very talented young QB that is making rookie mistakes too often. So it's a bit different than most situations like that.
http://www.texanstalk.com/threads/o...at-jets-saturday-dec-15th-2018.113765/page-35 Pretty awesome breakdown of Watson's sacks. Too much protection is actually causing more issues.
http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/type/player-week Deshaun had the 4th best TOTAL QBR rating of the week (Darnold was #1 with 87) with 78.3.
This just proves that BoB is not calling the right plays. He is just as responsible for these sacks as Watson.
That is my biggest concern with our pass rush and secondary. One week they save us with interceptions and stripped balls, and other weeks they let even a mediocre QB look awesome. That game is a perfect example with Darnold, who is ranked #30 overall in the league with a 42.5 QBR, but is leader of the week on our game.
They will need to produce a lot of turnovers in the playoffs in order to advance against a Chiefs or Patriot team.
Chargers, yeah but the Patriots couldn't put up more than 10 points in Pittsburgh. As long as the game is in Houston, I like the Texans' chances
Yeah I agree. I don't worry as much about the Patriots. Sure they beat us early in the year, but the Patriots definitely are beatable. I'd rather face them than Rivers and the Chargers.
Gates was a hall of fame level tight end who Rivers enjoyed during his prime years. Demaryius Thomas during his peak years was maybe close to a wash with Gates, but we don't get Demaryius during his prime, we get him now. And it's not even close.
Here's what's misleading about that. Deshaun was 22/28 for 294 yards with 2 td's & 0 int's with a 72.4 qbr. Darnold was 24/38 for 253 yards with 2 td's & 0 int's with a 88.4 qbr. http://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore?gameId=401030891 So the td's and int's are the same. Darnold is 2/10 for a NEGATIVE -41 yards from Deshaun's stats yet he gets a full 16 points higher on qbr. That's messed up! Oh and rushing is a wash; Watson 4-26 - 6.5ypa Darnold 6-35 - 5.8ypa
Here's how QBR is calculated http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/...-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating Spoiler Examines all of a quarterback's contributions ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency. Leaving out key areas of impact can make a quarterback’s performance look very different. Omitted from Cousins’ stat line, for example, are his 6 sacks taken, 3 fumbles (1 lost) and 2 pre-snap penalties on Washington’s offense. Rodgers, on the other hand, took only one sack, did not fumble and drew a number of defensive penalties that kept drives alive. Each quarterback impacted the game through these plays, but none of them are reflected in the traditional stats. The lack of context for each play also increases the distortion of the performance. Most would acknowledge that a 7-yard completion on third-and-10 is not a successful play, but base-level statistics treat all yards equally. Coaches, players and fans know what wins games; it only makes sense that the statistics that judge the most important position in the game do, too. In the NFC wild-card game referred to above, Rodgers started slow but manufactured five straight scoring drives and posted an 87 Total QBR. In comparison, Cousins’ errors cost him the game, and despite throwing for 119 more yards than Rodgers, Cousins had a Total QBR nearly 30 points lower. QBR is a measure of efficiency, so Rodgers created far more value per play than Cousins did. Degrees of success on each play So how does QBR actually work? For each play, QBR begins by asking: How successful was the play for the team, given its context? Context for each play includes the down, yards to go for a first down, distance to the end zone and time remaining in the half. All of these factors can be used before the ball is snapped to estimate the future net score advantage the team currently on offense can expect. This estimate is known as "expected points.” After the play, the change in those factors lead to a change (positive or negative) to the team’s net point advantage. That change in the expected points caused by the outcome of the play represents the play’s value, or its Expected Points Added (EPA), given all the context. When a team fails to convert on third down, struggles in the red zone, takes a lot of sacks or turns the ball over, it generally registers as negative EPA for the offense. But not all turnovers are created equal: A Hail Mary interception at the end of the half is not as impactful as one in the middle of the second quarter –- and EPA knows that. Division of credit EPA provides the context for every play and also holds the key to separating the quarterback’s impact from his teammates’. For all plays in which a quarterback is involved -– passes, rushes, sacks, penalties, fumbles, etc. -– the team-level EPA is calculated and then divided among a quarterback and his teammates. In other words, was the play successful and how much of that success is a result of a quarterback’s skill? For example, Rodgers’ longest completion against the Redskins was a 34-yarder to James Jones in the second quarter, but he could have gained those yards through the air or on a short screen that was broken for a long gain. He also could have completed the pass when under duress or thrown it from a clean pocket. In all of those scenarios, Rodgers’ level of skill differs, and the credit he receives for the 34-yard gain (or in this case, plus-2.0 EPA) should differ as well. That means on completed passes, the EPA is divided among the quarterback, his receivers and the offensive line based on how far the ball travels in the air, what percentage of the yards were gained after the catch (compared to how many yards after catch are expected) and whether the quarterback was under pressure. This division of credit is based on statistical analysis of thousands upon thousands of NFL plays. In this sense, QBR knows that Cousins was helped by his receiver, who gained fewer yards after the catch than expected given where he caught the ball, but hurt by his offensive line. The details of every play (air yards, drops, pressures, etc.) are charted by a team of trained analysts in the ESPN Stats & Information Group. Every play of every game is tracked by at least two different analysts to provide the most accurate representation of how each play occurred. Before moving on to the next play, QBR asks one more question: Did this play come in garbage time? As we know, amassing yards and points in a blowout does not tell you too much about a quarterback’s true skill. When the game is out of reach, which is measured by a team’s win probability at the start of the play, a quarterback receives less credit than on an otherwise “normal” play. Unlike the initial version of QBR released in 2011, plays are no longer up-weighted for “clutch situations,” but we felt it was important to keep the down-weighting feature. Efficiency stat, not a value stat This process of determining the EPA, dividing credit among the QB and his teammates and then determining the weight of play occurs for every play in which a quarterback is involved. All of these plays are then added together and divided by the total number of clutch-weighted plays to produce a per-play measure of QB efficiency. That last piece is important! QBR is an efficiency stat similar to yards per play or yards per attempt. Therefore, Cousins might have provided more total value than Rodgers because he was involved in more plays, but on a per-play basis, Rodgers was significantly more efficient. Finally, the per-play measure of efficiency is translated to a number on a 0-to-100 scale to produce a player’s Total QBR. The scaling process is a fairly standard logistic regression that produces a number that is easier to grasp. An average quarterback will have a QBR around 50, and a Pro Bowl-level player will have a QBR around 75 for the season. On a game level, however, a QBR of 75 means that holding all other factors constant (defense, offensive teammates, etc.), a quarterback’s team would be expected to win about 75 percent of time, given that level of QB play. Although QBR is not always a perfect reflection of a quarterback’s performance, it does solve most of the problems of traditional stats and bring the differences between Rodgers and Cousins’ performances into sharper focus.
Yes I know they look at different criteria in making their calculations but it's much, much too subjective for me. Like the part about did a rb take a screen pass, breaking a few tackles and make most of the yards himself, did the qb throw from a clean pocket, etc.,etc.... First off I don't think we have too much to be worried about in having the numbers skewed in our favor because on of our rb's broke multiple (or even 1) tackles and took one to the house. And WHY would a quick short pass be successful? The one instance I remember we had a long run after catch was when Deshaun hit someone over the short middle (of the field) and they ran a good 20-25 yards afterwards. BUT it was because Deshaun saw it quickly and made an accurate pass leading the wr into the open space. In other words DW would STILL deserve the lion's share of the credit for the success of the play. And again there's not too many times when our wideouts shake or break tackles en route to a long gain from a short pass. And on the subject of a clean pocket WHY is the pocket clean or not? Maybe a team is only rushing 2 or 3 and leaving everyone back in coverage which would result in a clean pocket but very few windows to throw to still making the play a high degree of difficulty. Again this would not work in our favor either because I saw (especially after the 1st quarter) that numerous times the Jets would only rush 2-3 and STILL get immediate pressure on Deshaun while when we did the same Darnold would have a clean pocket for 5,6 or even 7 seconds. All clean pockets, just like all pressure situations are not created equal. Pressure with 8 in coverage is much different from pressure with 4 or 5. And do they account for quality of o-line play or competency of db's faced? I think not! These are just a few things off the top of my head that make this MUCH MUCH too subjective to fairly grade the field.
I'm a huge NFL Stats guy and appreciate where you are coming from. Stats do not tell the whole story, especially one stat, and especially stats in the NFL. By pure stat lines, Jadeveon Clowney is a decent to good NFL pass rusher - but by actual game play, he's a game wrecker of epic proportions. He is also the single biggest reason why the Texans have the 4th best rushing defense in total yards and yards per game, and the #1 rushing defense in yards per attempt - and his willingness to let Watt focus on the pass rush and dictate where he lines up is absolutely unprecedented. We are truly blessed to have him, and I hope it stays that way. If you ask most experts, they'll agree he is a once in a generation physical talent. Yet, if you ask the average Texans or NFL fan who has no real clue about defensive concepts and who only watches the ball during plays, they'd likely say he is overrated. That's just the joys of the NFL . It is easily the most complicated sport with countless nuances - many of which can't be tracked with metrics. That doesn't mean that stats aren't important, if they weren't why would I spend countless hours a week scraping NFL.com JSON feeds for data which I am working on an NFL stat website... they just only tell part of the story, so they can rarely if ever be presented alone. At the end of the day, only one stat counts - and that is the number of wins. Everything else is arbitrary in comparison. A 3-0 victory counts just as much as a 53-0 victory. The goal of every NFL team is to make the playoffs, then in the playoffs all bets are. Wild Card teams have won the Super Bowl more than once, and they'll win it again in the future too. The Playoffs is all about who gets hot at the right time, and who can stay healthy. However, making the playoffs is a huge accomplishment in the NFL, as only 12 of 32 teams make it. Meanwhile, 16 of 30 NBA teams make the playoffs. If the Texans don't win a playoff game that doesn't mean the season was a bust, or that they have a bad coach. The NFL is a crazy league, where the team of inferior talent can and does win all the time. The term "any given Sunday" may be cliché, but that doesn't make it any less true.
